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⚠ Savings the Farmer KeepsModerate threat

Deere & Company (DE) — threat to the moat

See & Spray saves farmers more than half their herbicide, but Deere is paid once through the sprayer, not per acre.

The best technology Deere sells is paid for in the purchase price. When a farmer saves more than half his herbicide1, that saving accrues every season to him, not to Deere. Deere states that SaaS revenue "did not represent a significant percentage of our revenues"2, so whatever per-acre fees exist are too small to report.

How See & Spray is paid forSprayer saleprice includes the technologyEvery seasonfarmer saves morethan 50% of herbicideDeere SaaS revenuenot a significant percentageDeere Q3 FY2026 call; Form 10-Q Q3 FY2026
The savings recur; the revenue does not.

That is a choice with a cost. A machine sale is cyclical: when farm incomes fall, buyers defer it, and the See & Spray sale is deferred with it. A recurring fee per acre sprayed would have kept earning through the trough. Deere's own refined strategy, announced in December 2025, emphasises "Solutions as a Service"3, which suggests it knows the gap.

The risk in the other direction is that charging for what is now bundled could slow adoption. Farmers are price-sensitive, and the herbicide saving is the argument that sells the machine.

Management's own framing makes the point. Deere says its precision solutions, deployed as an integrated system, "can materially improve farm economics"4. The improvement is measured on the farm's books, not on Deere's.

If Deere has not disclosed any recurring technology revenue by the end of fiscal 2027, the value See & Spray creates will still be leaving with the farmer each season.

References
  1. ReportedWhen a farmer saves more than half his herbicide, that saving accrues every season to him, not to Deere.
    Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - precision technology: engaged acres, See & Spray and SmartGrade. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedDeere states that SaaS revenue "did not represent a significant percentage of our revenues", so whatever per-acre fees exist are too small to report.
    Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - income statement, balance sheet, receivables, financing receivables, cash returned and the outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedDeere's own refined strategy, announced in December 2025, emphasises "Solutions as a Service", which suggests it knows the gap.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - selected financial data, MD&A and the supplemental consolidating data for equipment operations and financial services. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDeere says its precision solutions, deployed as an integrated system, "can materially improve farm economics".
    Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - outlook, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, cash flow and the FTC settlement. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026