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Autonomy Kits and SmartGradeThin moat

Deere & Company (DE) — moat facet

Deere sells autonomy as a kit for tractors already in the field and SmartGrade as a factory option, adoption up more than 50% this year.

Deere's approach to autonomy is to sell it as an upgrade, not a new machine. At CES 2025 it showed a second-generation kit for the 9RX tractor "featuring 16 individual cameras arranged in pods to enable a 360-degree view of the field"1. The design choice matters: a kit can be fitted to tractors already in the field, so the installed base becomes the market.

Deere construction technology growth, fiscal 2026 to date (%)more than 50SmartGrade factory adoptionnearly 40Jobsite safety solution salesDeere Q3 FY2026 earnings call
Technology is spreading into construction.

The same logic is running in construction. On the third-quarter call Deere said "Factory-installed SmartGrade adoption has increased more than 50% year-to-date," and that sales of its jobsite safety solutions had increased nearly 40%2. SmartGrade automates blade control on dozers and graders, the kind of task where a skilled operator is scarce.

These are moats in the making, not yet in the accounts. Deere does not disclose autonomy revenue or SmartGrade revenue, and its statement that SaaS revenue is not significant3 covers them. What is visible is the direction: technology is being attached at the factory to more of what Deere sells, which raises the price of each machine and the cost of switching to a rival whose kit does not fit.

The risk is the familiar one for any new technology: regulators, liability and slower-than-hoped adoption. Deere's 10-K lists compliance requirements regarding data privacy and artificial intelligence among the challenges of developing its products4.

The 2025 autonomy kit also calculates depth more accurately at longer distances, which Deere says lets the tractor pull more equipment and drive faster5. The company showed versions for orchard tractors as well as the 9RX6.

Single-digit SmartGrade growth in fiscal 2027 would mean the construction business is not getting the technology premium the farm business is.

Moat trajectory: Widening

SmartGrade factory adoption up more than 50% year to date.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Factory-installed SmartGrade adoption growth, year to date
more than 50% (August 2026); jobsite safety solution sales up nearly 40%

Whether technology attaches to construction machines; growth below double digits would mean no premium there.

Source: Deere & Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
No Autonomy Revenue to Count
Deere puts autonomy at the centre of its strategy and reports no revenue from it; its 10-K says some adoption has been slower than expected.
References
  1. Third-party estimateAt CES 2025 it showed a second-generation kit for the 9RX tractor "featuring 16 individual cameras arranged in pods to enable a 360-degree view of the field".
    RealAgriculture, January 2025 - Deere's second-generation autonomy kit for the 9RX tractor with 16 individual cameras, shown at CES 2025. — January 2025 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOn the third-quarter call Deere said "Factory-installed SmartGrade adoption has increased more than 50% year-to-date," and that sales of its jobsite safety solutions had increased nearly 40%.
    Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - precision technology: engaged acres, See & Spray and SmartGrade. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedDeere does not disclose autonomy revenue or SmartGrade revenue, and its statement that SaaS revenue is not significant covers them.
    Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - income statement, balance sheet, receivables, financing receivables, cash returned and the outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDeere's 10-K lists compliance requirements regarding data privacy and artificial intelligence among the challenges of developing its products.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings: the farm cycle, interest rates, tariffs, technology adoption, competition and the right-to-repair litigation. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateThe 2025 autonomy kit also calculates depth more accurately at longer distances, which Deere says lets the tractor pull more equipment and drive faster.
    RealAgriculture, January 2025 - Deere's second-generation autonomy kit for the 9RX tractor with 16 individual cameras, shown at CES 2025. — January 2025 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  6. Third-party estimateThe company showed versions for orchard tractors as well as the 9RX.
    RealAgriculture, January 2025 - Deere's second-generation autonomy kit for the 9RX tractor with 16 individual cameras, shown at CES 2025. — January 2025 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026