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⚠ No Autonomy Revenue to CountModerate threat
Deere & Company (DE) — threat to the moat
Deere puts autonomy at the centre of its strategy and reports no revenue from it; its 10-K says some adoption has been slower than expected.
Autonomy is the part of Deere's story furthest from the income statement. The second-generation kit was shown in January 20251, and Deere's refined strategy names "automation, autonomy, digitalization, lifecycle solutions, and Solutions as a Service" among its emphases2. None of these has its own revenue line.
That leaves investors to infer progress from anecdotes and adoption rates. SmartGrade's 50% growth3 is real but starts from an undisclosed base. A kit that is promising in a demonstration may take years to become a product farmers trust for unsupervised work.
The 10-K is candid that adoption has lagged: customer acceptance and the pace of adoption of some solutions and subscription models "has been slower than we expected"4. That sentence sits in the risk factors, where companies put what they are worried about.
Deere's 10-Q lists among its risks its "ability to strengthen our digital capabilities, artificial intelligence, automation" and related offerings5, an acknowledgement that the capability is still being built.
The falsifier is a disclosure. If Deere has still not reported any revenue or unit figure for autonomy by the end of fiscal 2027, the strategy's headline item will remain a demonstration rather than a business.
- Third-party estimateThe second-generation kit was shown in January 2025, and Deere's refined strategy names "automation, autonomy, digitalization, lifecycle solutions, and Solutions as a Service" among its emphases.RealAgriculture, January 2025 - Deere's second-generation autonomy kit for the 9RX tractor with 16 individual cameras, shown at CES 2025. — January 2025 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedThe second-generation kit was shown in January 2025, and Deere's refined strategy names "automation, autonomy, digitalization, lifecycle solutions, and Solutions as a Service" among its emphases.Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - selected financial data, MD&A and the supplemental consolidating data for equipment operations and financial services. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedSmartGrade's 50% growth is real but starts from an undisclosed base.Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - precision technology: engaged acres, See & Spray and SmartGrade. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe 10-K is candid that adoption has lagged: customer acceptance and the pace of adoption of some solutions and subscription models "has been slower than we expected".Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings: the farm cycle, interest rates, tariffs, technology adoption, competition and the right-to-repair litigation. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedDeere's 10-Q lists among its risks its "ability to strengthen our digital capabilities, artificial intelligence, automation" and related offerings, an acknowledgement that the capability is still being built.Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - income statement, balance sheet, receivables, financing receivables, cash returned and the outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗