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ESPN: Sixteen Billion Dollars, Margin SlippingNarrow moat

Walt Disney (DIS) — moat facet

ESPN Domestic grew revenue 4.9% in fiscal 2025 and earned 8.3% less; the audience is there, but the leagues take more each renewal.

ESPN is the strongest asset in Disney's media business and the most expensive to keep. ESPN Domestic had revenue of $16,085 million in fiscal 2025, up 4.9%, and operating income of $2,801 million, down 8.3%12. Its margin was 17.4%, against 19.9% a year earlier3.

ESPN Domestic operating margin (%)19.2FY202219.3FY202319.9FY202417.4FY2025Walt Disney Forms 10-K FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025, Sports detail; Moat Explorer calculation
More revenue, less profit.

The audience is not the problem. Domestic advertising rose 14% to $4,273 million in fiscal 20254. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 ESPN had its most-watched fiscal third quarter "since 2016" across ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN on ABC5, and in June 2026 it reached "nearly 230 million unique fans" across digital and social channels6. Disney calls it "the #1 sports media brand with the most comprehensive rights portfolio"7.

The problem is the price of the rights. In the third quarter Sports programming and production costs rose 10% because of "contractual rate increases, costs for new sports rights" and the timing of the NBA contract renewal8. Sports operating income fell 17% that quarter even as revenue rose 4%9.

That is the shape of ESPN's moat. Viewers come because ESPN has the games; ESPN has the games because it pays the leagues more every renewal. The leagues hold the scarce asset, and they know it.

The postseason audience was exceptional. Ratings "more than doubled for both championship series compared to the prior year"10, and aggregate sports consumption on ESPN networks rose double digits among viewers aged 18 to 49. The audience is the argument for paying the leagues more; the margin shows how much of the benefit the leagues keep.

ESPN's moat is worth what is left after the leagues are paid. If ESPN Domestic's margin falls below 15% for a full year, rights inflation will have outrun what distributors and advertisers will pay. It was 17.4% in fiscal 202511.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

ESPN Domestic margin 19.9% to 17.4%; Sports operating income -17% in Q3 FY2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Sports programming and production costs growth, latest quarter
+10% (Q3 FY2026: $3,050M against $2,762M)

What the leagues are taking; growth above revenue growth means rights inflation is winning.

Source: Walt Disney Q3 FY2026 earnings release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
References
  1. ReportedESPN Domestic had revenue of $16,085 million in fiscal 2025, up 4.9%, and operating income of $2,801 million, down 8.3%.
    The Walt Disney Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 September 2025) - Item 1 business and MD&A for Sports: ESPN, its channels and rights, and Star India. — FY2025 · publ. 13 November 2025 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcESPN Domestic had revenue of $16,085 million in fiscal 2025, up 4.9%, and operating income of $2,801 million, down 8.3%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Walt Disney reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end late September). Experiences: share of total segment operating income 8,954 / 12,863 = 69.6% (FY2023), 9,272 / 15,601 = 59.4% (FY2024), 9,995 / 17,551 = 56.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 8,941 / 14,758 = 60.6%; about three-fifths. Experiences share of revenue 36,156 / 94,425 = 38.3%. Entertainment share of segment operating income 4,674 / 17,551 = 26.6%; Sports 2,882 / 17,551 = 16.4%. Segment operating margins FY2025: Experiences 9,995 / 36,156 = 27.6%, Entertainment 4,674 / 42,466 = 11.0%, Sports 2,882 / 17,672 = 16.3%; FY2024: 9,272 / 34,151 = 27.2%, 3,923 / 41,186 = 9.5%, 2,406 / 17,619 = 13.7%; FY2023: 8,954 / 32,549 = 27.5%, 1,444 / 40,635 = 3.6%, 2,465 / 17,111 = 14.4%; FY2022 Entertainment 2,126 / 39,569 = 5.4%; FY2021 Entertainment 5,196 / 36,489 = 14.2%. Domestic Parks & Experiences share of total segment operating income 6,375 / 17,551 = 36.3%; domestic margin 5,876 / 22,677 = 25.9% (FY2023), 5,878 / 23,596 = 24.9% (FY2024), 6,375 / 25,191 = 25.3% (FY2025); Q3 FY2026 2,088 / 7,116 = 29.3%; domestic operating income growth FY2024 5,878 / 5,876 - 1 = 0.0%, FY2025 6,375 / 5,878 - 1 = +8.5%. International margin 1,104 / 5,475 = 20.2%, 1,354 / 6,183 = 21.9%, 1,442 / 6,520 = 22.1%; Q2 FY2026 227 / 1,596 = 14.2%; Q3 FY2026 369 / 1,787 = 20.6%; nine months FY2026 international operating income 428 + 227 + 369 = 1,024. Consumer Products margin 1,974 / 4,397 = 44.9%, 2,040 / 4,372 = 46.7%, 2,178 / 4,445 = 49.0%; Q3 FY2026 560 / 1,065 = 52.6%; share of Experiences revenue 4,445 / 36,156 = 12.3% (about an eighth), of Experiences operating income 2,178 / 9,995 = 21.8% (about a fifth). Experiences capital expenditure 6,429 / 3,659 - 1 = +75.7%; as a share of Experiences operating income 3,659 / 9,272 = 39.5% (FY2024), 6,429 / 9,995 = 64.3% (FY2025). Experiences operating income growth FY2025 9,995 / 9,272 - 1 = +7.8%; revenue growth 34,151 / 32,549 - 1 = +4.9% (FY2024), 36,156 / 34,151 - 1 = +5.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 operating income 8,941 / 8,117 - 1 = +10.2%, revenue 29,461 / 27,390 - 1 = +7.6%; company capital expenditure nine months 6,780 / 6,108 - 1 = +11.0%, about 11%. Experiences revenue FY2025 over FY2021 36,156 / 15,961 = 2.27 times. Cruise fleet 6 ships + Destiny + Adventure = 8; + 4 under contract = 12. $60 billion over about 10 years = about $6 billion a year. Media: Linear Networks revenue 9,364 / 12,828 - 1 = -27.0% (FY2022 to FY2025); operating income 2,955 / 5,198 - 1 = -43.2%; FY2025 operating income 2,955 / 3,452 - 1 = -14.4%; margin 5,198 / 12,828 = 40.5% (FY2022), 2,955 / 9,364 = 31.6% (FY2025); linear advertising 2,856 / 4,877 - 1 = -41.4%; linear affiliate fees 6,348 / 7,739 - 1 = -18.0%; FY2025 advertising 2,856 / 3,676 - 1 = -22.3%, affiliate fees 6,348 / 6,872 - 1 = -7.6%. Direct-to-Consumer operating income swing 1,327 - (-3,424) = 4,751 (FY2022 to FY2025); FY2025 margin 1,327 / 24,614 = 5.4%; DTC advertising 3,684 / 3,614 - 1 = +1.9%; advertising share of DTC revenue 3,684 / 24,614 = 15.0%; DTC share of Entertainment revenue 24,614 / 42,466 = 58.0%. Entertainment SVOD margin Q3 FY2026 712 / 5,532 = 12.9%. Entertainment margin Q3 FY2026 1,680 / 11,345 = 14.8%; Entertainment revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (42,466 / 36,489)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.9% a year; nine months FY2026 revenue 34,669 / 32,258 - 1 = +7.5%, operating income 4,116 / 3,983 - 1 = +3.3%. Content Sales/Licensing and Other margin 392 / 8,488 = 4.6%; theatrical distribution share of revenue 2,592 / 94,425 = 2.7%. Subscribers taking both Disney+ and Hulu 43.7 / 27.1 - 1 = +61.3%. Sports: ESPN Domestic margin 2,814 / 14,636 = 19.2% (FY2022), 2,881 / 14,945 = 19.3% (FY2023), 3,056 / 15,339 = 19.9% (FY2024), 2,801 / 16,085 = 17.4% (FY2025); FY2025 revenue 16,085 / 15,339 - 1 = +4.9%, operating income 2,801 / 3,056 - 1 = -8.3%. Sports affiliate and subscription share of revenue 11,944 / 17,672 = 67.6%. Sports programming commitments FY2026-FY2029 9,894 + 9,797 + 9,540 + 9,101 = 38,332, about $38.3 billion; FY2026 commitments over FY2025 Sports revenue 9,894 / 17,672 = 56.0%. Sports nine months FY2026 operating income 1,701 / 1,971 - 1 = -13.7%, revenue 14,018 / 13,692 - 1 = +2.4%. Sports revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (17,672 / 15,960)^(1/4) - 1 = 2.6% a year. Star India operating losses 237 + 432 + 636 = 1,305 (FY2022-FY2024). ESPN implied value: 10% for $3 billion = about $30 billion. Affiliate fees FY2025: linear 6,348 + Sports affiliate and subscription 11,944 = 18,292, about $18.3 billion. Advertising FY2025: linear 2,856 + DTC 3,684 + Sports 4,444 = 10,984, about $11.0 billion. Cash, capital and valuation: dividend per share 1.50 (FY2026) / 1.00 (FY2025) - 1 = +50%. Experiences headcount 185,000 / 231,000 total = 80.1%, about four in five. SVOD Q3 FY2026 subscription fee increase 4,715 - 4,116 = 599, advertising increase 851 - 830 = 21; SVOD programming and production costs over SVOD revenue 2,577 / 5,532 = 46.6%, nearly half. Old-basis parks segment operating income 7,905 / 471 = 16.8 times (FY2021 to FY2022). trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 94,425 - 71,961 + 76,397 = 98,861, about $98.9 billion; net income 12,404 - 11,091 + 7,287 = 8,600. Restructuring and impairment charges 5,735 (FY2020) + 654 + 237 + 3,892 + 3,595 + 819 (FY2025) + 1,139 (nine months FY2026) = 16,071, about $16.1 billion. Fox goodwill 49,085 / 69,500 = 70.6% of consideration. Goodwill over total assets 73,294 / 197,514 = 37.1% (FY2025); 74,682 / 204,740 = 36.5% (27 June 2026). Buybacks nine months FY2026 7,245 / 68 million shares = $106.5 a share. Fiscal 2026 capital returns at least 9.0bn buybacks + about 2.6bn dividends = about $11.6 billion; free cash flow guided at least 19bn cash from operations - about 9bn capital expenditure = about $10 billion. Nine months FY2026 returned 7,245 + 1,337 = 8,582, / free cash flow 5,735 = 149.6%, about 150%. Net debt 27 June 2026 (8,627 + 37,414 = 46,041) - 5,185 = 40,856; at FY2025 year end 42,026 - 5,695 = 36,331; change 40,856 - 36,331 = 4,525. Unsatisfied performance obligations 16bn / FY2025 revenue 94.425bn = 16.9%. Analyst target 126.61 / 102.19 - 1 = +23.9%, about 24%. Disney market value over Netflix 176.45 / 279.23 = 63.2%, about 63%. Segment bands FY2025 42,466 + 17,672 + 36,156 = 96,294 against reported revenue 94,425 (eliminations 1,869). Nine months FY2026 segment revenues 34,669 + 14,018 + 29,461 = 78,148; Experiences share 29,461 / 78,148 = 37.7%. Year-end market value (31 December after each fiscal year, companiesmarketcap) over net income and revenue: 2015 173.71bn / 8,382 = 20.72, / 52,465 = 3.311; 2016 165.86 / 9,391 = 17.66, / 55,632 = 2.981; 2017 162.04 / 8,980 = 18.04, / 55,137 = 2.939; 2018 164.47 / 12,598 = 13.06, / 59,434 = 2.767; 2019 257.58 / 11,054 = 23.30, / 69,607 = 3.700; 2020 328.02 / 65,388 = 5.017 (loss year); 2021 281.53 / 1,995 = 141.1, / 67,418 = 4.176; 2022 158.43 / 3,145 = 50.38, / 82,722 = 1.915; 2023 165.25 / 2,354 = 70.20, / 88,898 = 1.859; 2024 202.01 / 4,972 = 40.63, / 91,361 = 2.211; 2025 204.17 / 12,404 = 16.46, / 94,425 = 2.162; October 2026 176.45bn / 8,600 = 20.52, / 98,861 = 1.785 - Experiences: shares, margins, capital spending and growth. — FY2015-Q3 FY2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Walt Disney Forms 10-K, 10-Q and earnings releases, SEC XBRL, and stockanalysis.com and companiesmarketcap.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  3. Moat Explorer calcIts margin was 17.4%, against 19.9% a year earlier.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Walt Disney reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end late September). Experiences: share of total segment operating income 8,954 / 12,863 = 69.6% (FY2023), 9,272 / 15,601 = 59.4% (FY2024), 9,995 / 17,551 = 56.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 8,941 / 14,758 = 60.6%; about three-fifths. Experiences share of revenue 36,156 / 94,425 = 38.3%. Entertainment share of segment operating income 4,674 / 17,551 = 26.6%; Sports 2,882 / 17,551 = 16.4%. Segment operating margins FY2025: Experiences 9,995 / 36,156 = 27.6%, Entertainment 4,674 / 42,466 = 11.0%, Sports 2,882 / 17,672 = 16.3%; FY2024: 9,272 / 34,151 = 27.2%, 3,923 / 41,186 = 9.5%, 2,406 / 17,619 = 13.7%; FY2023: 8,954 / 32,549 = 27.5%, 1,444 / 40,635 = 3.6%, 2,465 / 17,111 = 14.4%; FY2022 Entertainment 2,126 / 39,569 = 5.4%; FY2021 Entertainment 5,196 / 36,489 = 14.2%. Domestic Parks & Experiences share of total segment operating income 6,375 / 17,551 = 36.3%; domestic margin 5,876 / 22,677 = 25.9% (FY2023), 5,878 / 23,596 = 24.9% (FY2024), 6,375 / 25,191 = 25.3% (FY2025); Q3 FY2026 2,088 / 7,116 = 29.3%; domestic operating income growth FY2024 5,878 / 5,876 - 1 = 0.0%, FY2025 6,375 / 5,878 - 1 = +8.5%. International margin 1,104 / 5,475 = 20.2%, 1,354 / 6,183 = 21.9%, 1,442 / 6,520 = 22.1%; Q2 FY2026 227 / 1,596 = 14.2%; Q3 FY2026 369 / 1,787 = 20.6%; nine months FY2026 international operating income 428 + 227 + 369 = 1,024. Consumer Products margin 1,974 / 4,397 = 44.9%, 2,040 / 4,372 = 46.7%, 2,178 / 4,445 = 49.0%; Q3 FY2026 560 / 1,065 = 52.6%; share of Experiences revenue 4,445 / 36,156 = 12.3% (about an eighth), of Experiences operating income 2,178 / 9,995 = 21.8% (about a fifth). Experiences capital expenditure 6,429 / 3,659 - 1 = +75.7%; as a share of Experiences operating income 3,659 / 9,272 = 39.5% (FY2024), 6,429 / 9,995 = 64.3% (FY2025). Experiences operating income growth FY2025 9,995 / 9,272 - 1 = +7.8%; revenue growth 34,151 / 32,549 - 1 = +4.9% (FY2024), 36,156 / 34,151 - 1 = +5.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 operating income 8,941 / 8,117 - 1 = +10.2%, revenue 29,461 / 27,390 - 1 = +7.6%; company capital expenditure nine months 6,780 / 6,108 - 1 = +11.0%, about 11%. Experiences revenue FY2025 over FY2021 36,156 / 15,961 = 2.27 times. Cruise fleet 6 ships + Destiny + Adventure = 8; + 4 under contract = 12. $60 billion over about 10 years = about $6 billion a year. Media: Linear Networks revenue 9,364 / 12,828 - 1 = -27.0% (FY2022 to FY2025); operating income 2,955 / 5,198 - 1 = -43.2%; FY2025 operating income 2,955 / 3,452 - 1 = -14.4%; margin 5,198 / 12,828 = 40.5% (FY2022), 2,955 / 9,364 = 31.6% (FY2025); linear advertising 2,856 / 4,877 - 1 = -41.4%; linear affiliate fees 6,348 / 7,739 - 1 = -18.0%; FY2025 advertising 2,856 / 3,676 - 1 = -22.3%, affiliate fees 6,348 / 6,872 - 1 = -7.6%. Direct-to-Consumer operating income swing 1,327 - (-3,424) = 4,751 (FY2022 to FY2025); FY2025 margin 1,327 / 24,614 = 5.4%; DTC advertising 3,684 / 3,614 - 1 = +1.9%; advertising share of DTC revenue 3,684 / 24,614 = 15.0%; DTC share of Entertainment revenue 24,614 / 42,466 = 58.0%. Entertainment SVOD margin Q3 FY2026 712 / 5,532 = 12.9%. Entertainment margin Q3 FY2026 1,680 / 11,345 = 14.8%; Entertainment revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (42,466 / 36,489)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.9% a year; nine months FY2026 revenue 34,669 / 32,258 - 1 = +7.5%, operating income 4,116 / 3,983 - 1 = +3.3%. Content Sales/Licensing and Other margin 392 / 8,488 = 4.6%; theatrical distribution share of revenue 2,592 / 94,425 = 2.7%. Subscribers taking both Disney+ and Hulu 43.7 / 27.1 - 1 = +61.3%. Sports: ESPN Domestic margin 2,814 / 14,636 = 19.2% (FY2022), 2,881 / 14,945 = 19.3% (FY2023), 3,056 / 15,339 = 19.9% (FY2024), 2,801 / 16,085 = 17.4% (FY2025); FY2025 revenue 16,085 / 15,339 - 1 = +4.9%, operating income 2,801 / 3,056 - 1 = -8.3%. Sports affiliate and subscription share of revenue 11,944 / 17,672 = 67.6%. Sports programming commitments FY2026-FY2029 9,894 + 9,797 + 9,540 + 9,101 = 38,332, about $38.3 billion; FY2026 commitments over FY2025 Sports revenue 9,894 / 17,672 = 56.0%. Sports nine months FY2026 operating income 1,701 / 1,971 - 1 = -13.7%, revenue 14,018 / 13,692 - 1 = +2.4%. Sports revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (17,672 / 15,960)^(1/4) - 1 = 2.6% a year. Star India operating losses 237 + 432 + 636 = 1,305 (FY2022-FY2024). ESPN implied value: 10% for $3 billion = about $30 billion. Affiliate fees FY2025: linear 6,348 + Sports affiliate and subscription 11,944 = 18,292, about $18.3 billion. Advertising FY2025: linear 2,856 + DTC 3,684 + Sports 4,444 = 10,984, about $11.0 billion. Cash, capital and valuation: dividend per share 1.50 (FY2026) / 1.00 (FY2025) - 1 = +50%. Experiences headcount 185,000 / 231,000 total = 80.1%, about four in five. SVOD Q3 FY2026 subscription fee increase 4,715 - 4,116 = 599, advertising increase 851 - 830 = 21; SVOD programming and production costs over SVOD revenue 2,577 / 5,532 = 46.6%, nearly half. Old-basis parks segment operating income 7,905 / 471 = 16.8 times (FY2021 to FY2022). trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 94,425 - 71,961 + 76,397 = 98,861, about $98.9 billion; net income 12,404 - 11,091 + 7,287 = 8,600. Restructuring and impairment charges 5,735 (FY2020) + 654 + 237 + 3,892 + 3,595 + 819 (FY2025) + 1,139 (nine months FY2026) = 16,071, about $16.1 billion. Fox goodwill 49,085 / 69,500 = 70.6% of consideration. Goodwill over total assets 73,294 / 197,514 = 37.1% (FY2025); 74,682 / 204,740 = 36.5% (27 June 2026). Buybacks nine months FY2026 7,245 / 68 million shares = $106.5 a share. Fiscal 2026 capital returns at least 9.0bn buybacks + about 2.6bn dividends = about $11.6 billion; free cash flow guided at least 19bn cash from operations - about 9bn capital expenditure = about $10 billion. Nine months FY2026 returned 7,245 + 1,337 = 8,582, / free cash flow 5,735 = 149.6%, about 150%. Net debt 27 June 2026 (8,627 + 37,414 = 46,041) - 5,185 = 40,856; at FY2025 year end 42,026 - 5,695 = 36,331; change 40,856 - 36,331 = 4,525. Unsatisfied performance obligations 16bn / FY2025 revenue 94.425bn = 16.9%. Analyst target 126.61 / 102.19 - 1 = +23.9%, about 24%. Disney market value over Netflix 176.45 / 279.23 = 63.2%, about 63%. Segment bands FY2025 42,466 + 17,672 + 36,156 = 96,294 against reported revenue 94,425 (eliminations 1,869). Nine months FY2026 segment revenues 34,669 + 14,018 + 29,461 = 78,148; Experiences share 29,461 / 78,148 = 37.7%. Year-end market value (31 December after each fiscal year, companiesmarketcap) over net income and revenue: 2015 173.71bn / 8,382 = 20.72, / 52,465 = 3.311; 2016 165.86 / 9,391 = 17.66, / 55,632 = 2.981; 2017 162.04 / 8,980 = 18.04, / 55,137 = 2.939; 2018 164.47 / 12,598 = 13.06, / 59,434 = 2.767; 2019 257.58 / 11,054 = 23.30, / 69,607 = 3.700; 2020 328.02 / 65,388 = 5.017 (loss year); 2021 281.53 / 1,995 = 141.1, / 67,418 = 4.176; 2022 158.43 / 3,145 = 50.38, / 82,722 = 1.915; 2023 165.25 / 2,354 = 70.20, / 88,898 = 1.859; 2024 202.01 / 4,972 = 40.63, / 91,361 = 2.211; 2025 204.17 / 12,404 = 16.46, / 94,425 = 2.162; October 2026 176.45bn / 8,600 = 20.52, / 98,861 = 1.785 - segment totals, trailing twelve months and other derived figures. — FY2015-Q3 FY2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Walt Disney Forms 10-K, 10-Q and earnings releases, SEC XBRL, and stockanalysis.com and companiesmarketcap.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  4. ReportedDomestic advertising rose 14% to $4,273 million in fiscal 2025.
    The Walt Disney Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 September 2025) - Item 1 business and MD&A for Entertainment: Linear Networks, Direct-to-Consumer, Content Sales/Licensing, subscribers and revenue by type. — FY2025 · publ. 13 November 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn the third quarter of fiscal 2026 ESPN had its most-watched fiscal third quarter "since 2016" across ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN on ABC, and in June 2026 it reached "nearly 230 million unique fans" across digital and social channels.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Sports results, ESPN viewership, the NFL Transaction and programming costs. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn the third quarter of fiscal 2026 ESPN had its most-watched fiscal third quarter "since 2016" across ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN on ABC, and in June 2026 it reached "nearly 230 million unique fans" across digital and social channels.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Sports results, ESPN viewership, the NFL Transaction and programming costs. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDisney calls it "the #1 sports media brand with the most comprehensive rights portfolio".
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Entertainment results by revenue type, the shareholder letter and segment totals. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn the third quarter Sports programming and production costs rose 10% because of "contractual rate increases, costs for new sports rights" and the timing of the NBA contract renewal.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Sports results, ESPN viewership, the NFL Transaction and programming costs. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedSports operating income fell 17% that quarter even as revenue rose 4%.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Sports results, ESPN viewership, the NFL Transaction and programming costs. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedRatings "more than doubled for both championship series compared to the prior year", and aggregate sports consumption on ESPN networks rose double digits among viewers aged 18 to 49.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Sports results, ESPN viewership, the NFL Transaction and programming costs. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  11. Moat Explorer calcIt was 17.4% in fiscal 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Walt Disney reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end late September). Experiences: share of total segment operating income 8,954 / 12,863 = 69.6% (FY2023), 9,272 / 15,601 = 59.4% (FY2024), 9,995 / 17,551 = 56.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 8,941 / 14,758 = 60.6%; about three-fifths. Experiences share of revenue 36,156 / 94,425 = 38.3%. Entertainment share of segment operating income 4,674 / 17,551 = 26.6%; Sports 2,882 / 17,551 = 16.4%. Segment operating margins FY2025: Experiences 9,995 / 36,156 = 27.6%, Entertainment 4,674 / 42,466 = 11.0%, Sports 2,882 / 17,672 = 16.3%; FY2024: 9,272 / 34,151 = 27.2%, 3,923 / 41,186 = 9.5%, 2,406 / 17,619 = 13.7%; FY2023: 8,954 / 32,549 = 27.5%, 1,444 / 40,635 = 3.6%, 2,465 / 17,111 = 14.4%; FY2022 Entertainment 2,126 / 39,569 = 5.4%; FY2021 Entertainment 5,196 / 36,489 = 14.2%. Domestic Parks & Experiences share of total segment operating income 6,375 / 17,551 = 36.3%; domestic margin 5,876 / 22,677 = 25.9% (FY2023), 5,878 / 23,596 = 24.9% (FY2024), 6,375 / 25,191 = 25.3% (FY2025); Q3 FY2026 2,088 / 7,116 = 29.3%; domestic operating income growth FY2024 5,878 / 5,876 - 1 = 0.0%, FY2025 6,375 / 5,878 - 1 = +8.5%. International margin 1,104 / 5,475 = 20.2%, 1,354 / 6,183 = 21.9%, 1,442 / 6,520 = 22.1%; Q2 FY2026 227 / 1,596 = 14.2%; Q3 FY2026 369 / 1,787 = 20.6%; nine months FY2026 international operating income 428 + 227 + 369 = 1,024. Consumer Products margin 1,974 / 4,397 = 44.9%, 2,040 / 4,372 = 46.7%, 2,178 / 4,445 = 49.0%; Q3 FY2026 560 / 1,065 = 52.6%; share of Experiences revenue 4,445 / 36,156 = 12.3% (about an eighth), of Experiences operating income 2,178 / 9,995 = 21.8% (about a fifth). Experiences capital expenditure 6,429 / 3,659 - 1 = +75.7%; as a share of Experiences operating income 3,659 / 9,272 = 39.5% (FY2024), 6,429 / 9,995 = 64.3% (FY2025). Experiences operating income growth FY2025 9,995 / 9,272 - 1 = +7.8%; revenue growth 34,151 / 32,549 - 1 = +4.9% (FY2024), 36,156 / 34,151 - 1 = +5.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 operating income 8,941 / 8,117 - 1 = +10.2%, revenue 29,461 / 27,390 - 1 = +7.6%; company capital expenditure nine months 6,780 / 6,108 - 1 = +11.0%, about 11%. Experiences revenue FY2025 over FY2021 36,156 / 15,961 = 2.27 times. Cruise fleet 6 ships + Destiny + Adventure = 8; + 4 under contract = 12. $60 billion over about 10 years = about $6 billion a year. Media: Linear Networks revenue 9,364 / 12,828 - 1 = -27.0% (FY2022 to FY2025); operating income 2,955 / 5,198 - 1 = -43.2%; FY2025 operating income 2,955 / 3,452 - 1 = -14.4%; margin 5,198 / 12,828 = 40.5% (FY2022), 2,955 / 9,364 = 31.6% (FY2025); linear advertising 2,856 / 4,877 - 1 = -41.4%; linear affiliate fees 6,348 / 7,739 - 1 = -18.0%; FY2025 advertising 2,856 / 3,676 - 1 = -22.3%, affiliate fees 6,348 / 6,872 - 1 = -7.6%. Direct-to-Consumer operating income swing 1,327 - (-3,424) = 4,751 (FY2022 to FY2025); FY2025 margin 1,327 / 24,614 = 5.4%; DTC advertising 3,684 / 3,614 - 1 = +1.9%; advertising share of DTC revenue 3,684 / 24,614 = 15.0%; DTC share of Entertainment revenue 24,614 / 42,466 = 58.0%. Entertainment SVOD margin Q3 FY2026 712 / 5,532 = 12.9%. Entertainment margin Q3 FY2026 1,680 / 11,345 = 14.8%; Entertainment revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (42,466 / 36,489)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.9% a year; nine months FY2026 revenue 34,669 / 32,258 - 1 = +7.5%, operating income 4,116 / 3,983 - 1 = +3.3%. Content Sales/Licensing and Other margin 392 / 8,488 = 4.6%; theatrical distribution share of revenue 2,592 / 94,425 = 2.7%. Subscribers taking both Disney+ and Hulu 43.7 / 27.1 - 1 = +61.3%. Sports: ESPN Domestic margin 2,814 / 14,636 = 19.2% (FY2022), 2,881 / 14,945 = 19.3% (FY2023), 3,056 / 15,339 = 19.9% (FY2024), 2,801 / 16,085 = 17.4% (FY2025); FY2025 revenue 16,085 / 15,339 - 1 = +4.9%, operating income 2,801 / 3,056 - 1 = -8.3%. Sports affiliate and subscription share of revenue 11,944 / 17,672 = 67.6%. Sports programming commitments FY2026-FY2029 9,894 + 9,797 + 9,540 + 9,101 = 38,332, about $38.3 billion; FY2026 commitments over FY2025 Sports revenue 9,894 / 17,672 = 56.0%. Sports nine months FY2026 operating income 1,701 / 1,971 - 1 = -13.7%, revenue 14,018 / 13,692 - 1 = +2.4%. Sports revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (17,672 / 15,960)^(1/4) - 1 = 2.6% a year. Star India operating losses 237 + 432 + 636 = 1,305 (FY2022-FY2024). ESPN implied value: 10% for $3 billion = about $30 billion. Affiliate fees FY2025: linear 6,348 + Sports affiliate and subscription 11,944 = 18,292, about $18.3 billion. Advertising FY2025: linear 2,856 + DTC 3,684 + Sports 4,444 = 10,984, about $11.0 billion. Cash, capital and valuation: dividend per share 1.50 (FY2026) / 1.00 (FY2025) - 1 = +50%. Experiences headcount 185,000 / 231,000 total = 80.1%, about four in five. SVOD Q3 FY2026 subscription fee increase 4,715 - 4,116 = 599, advertising increase 851 - 830 = 21; SVOD programming and production costs over SVOD revenue 2,577 / 5,532 = 46.6%, nearly half. Old-basis parks segment operating income 7,905 / 471 = 16.8 times (FY2021 to FY2022). trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 94,425 - 71,961 + 76,397 = 98,861, about $98.9 billion; net income 12,404 - 11,091 + 7,287 = 8,600. Restructuring and impairment charges 5,735 (FY2020) + 654 + 237 + 3,892 + 3,595 + 819 (FY2025) + 1,139 (nine months FY2026) = 16,071, about $16.1 billion. Fox goodwill 49,085 / 69,500 = 70.6% of consideration. Goodwill over total assets 73,294 / 197,514 = 37.1% (FY2025); 74,682 / 204,740 = 36.5% (27 June 2026). Buybacks nine months FY2026 7,245 / 68 million shares = $106.5 a share. Fiscal 2026 capital returns at least 9.0bn buybacks + about 2.6bn dividends = about $11.6 billion; free cash flow guided at least 19bn cash from operations - about 9bn capital expenditure = about $10 billion. Nine months FY2026 returned 7,245 + 1,337 = 8,582, / free cash flow 5,735 = 149.6%, about 150%. Net debt 27 June 2026 (8,627 + 37,414 = 46,041) - 5,185 = 40,856; at FY2025 year end 42,026 - 5,695 = 36,331; change 40,856 - 36,331 = 4,525. Unsatisfied performance obligations 16bn / FY2025 revenue 94.425bn = 16.9%. Analyst target 126.61 / 102.19 - 1 = +23.9%, about 24%. Disney market value over Netflix 176.45 / 279.23 = 63.2%, about 63%. Segment bands FY2025 42,466 + 17,672 + 36,156 = 96,294 against reported revenue 94,425 (eliminations 1,869). Nine months FY2026 segment revenues 34,669 + 14,018 + 29,461 = 78,148; Experiences share 29,461 / 78,148 = 37.7%. Year-end market value (31 December after each fiscal year, companiesmarketcap) over net income and revenue: 2015 173.71bn / 8,382 = 20.72, / 52,465 = 3.311; 2016 165.86 / 9,391 = 17.66, / 55,632 = 2.981; 2017 162.04 / 8,980 = 18.04, / 55,137 = 2.939; 2018 164.47 / 12,598 = 13.06, / 59,434 = 2.767; 2019 257.58 / 11,054 = 23.30, / 69,607 = 3.700; 2020 328.02 / 65,388 = 5.017 (loss year); 2021 281.53 / 1,995 = 141.1, / 67,418 = 4.176; 2022 158.43 / 3,145 = 50.38, / 82,722 = 1.915; 2023 165.25 / 2,354 = 70.20, / 88,898 = 1.859; 2024 202.01 / 4,972 = 40.63, / 91,361 = 2.211; 2025 204.17 / 12,404 = 16.46, / 94,425 = 2.162; October 2026 176.45bn / 8,600 = 20.52, / 98,861 = 1.785 - segment totals, trailing twelve months and other derived figures. — FY2015-Q3 FY2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Walt Disney Forms 10-K, 10-Q and earnings releases, SEC XBRL, and stockanalysis.com and companiesmarketcap.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026