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✦ The Sixty Billion Dollar DecadeNarrow moat

Walt Disney (DIS) — the future bets

Disney is nearly doubling its parks spending to about $60 billion over ten years and says the projects will earn double-digit returns.

Disney's largest bet is on concrete. In September 2023 it said it would "nearly double, as compared to the previous approximately 10-year period, consolidated capital expenditures for the segment over the course of an approximately 10-year period to approximately $60 billion in aggregate"1. That is about $6 billion a year on average for Experiences2.

Disney capital expenditure ($M)4,969FY20235,412FY20248,024FY2025about 9,000FY2026 guideWalt Disney Q4 FY2024 and Q4 FY2025 releases; Q3 FY2026 release guidance
Capital spending nearly doubles in three years.

The spending is under way. Experiences capital expenditure was $6,429 million in fiscal 2025, of which $5,271 million domestic and $1,158 million international, against $3,659 million in fiscal 20243. Disney guides to about $9 billion of company capital spending in fiscal 20264, and spent $6,780 million in the first nine months5.

It is showing up on the balance sheet. Parks, resorts and other property rose to $44,744 million at 27 June 2026 from $41,255 million in September 2025, with attractions, buildings and equipment at $87,448 million before depreciation6. The new ships are part of it, along with new lands and attractions at the existing resorts.

Disney expects these projects "over their lifetimes, to deliver double-digit returns"7. That is the right claim to test, because the parks earned a margin of about 30% in the first nine months of fiscal 20268 and the question is whether new capital earns as much as old.

The new capacity is already producing some of what the plan promised. Disneyland Paris showed "strong attendance growth" after the opening of World of Frozen9, an example of a new land lifting an existing resort rather than requiring new land.

The bet pays off if Experiences profit grows in line with the capital added. If Experiences segment operating income is below $12 billion in fiscal 2028, three years into the doubled spending, the $60 billion will be earning less than its target. It was $9,995 million in fiscal 202510.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Experiences capex $6.4bn in FY2025; company capex about $9bn guided for FY2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Parks, resorts and other property, net, latest quarter
$44,744M (27 June 2026), from $41,255M at September 2025

How fast the $60 billion is being put to work; growth without matching Experiences profit would mean the returns lag.

Source: Walt Disney Q3 FY2026 earnings release ↗
References
  1. ReportedIn September 2023 it said it would "nearly double, as compared to the previous approximately 10-year period, consolidated capital expenditures for the segment over the course of an approximately 10-year period to approximately $60 billion in aggregate".
    The Walt Disney Company Form 8-K of 19 September 2023, Item 7.01 - plan to nearly double Experiences capital expenditure over about ten years to approximately $60 billion. — September 2023 · publ. 19 September 2023 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcThat is about $6 billion a year on average for Experiences.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Walt Disney reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end late September). Experiences: share of total segment operating income 8,954 / 12,863 = 69.6% (FY2023), 9,272 / 15,601 = 59.4% (FY2024), 9,995 / 17,551 = 56.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 8,941 / 14,758 = 60.6%; about three-fifths. Experiences share of revenue 36,156 / 94,425 = 38.3%. Entertainment share of segment operating income 4,674 / 17,551 = 26.6%; Sports 2,882 / 17,551 = 16.4%. Segment operating margins FY2025: Experiences 9,995 / 36,156 = 27.6%, Entertainment 4,674 / 42,466 = 11.0%, Sports 2,882 / 17,672 = 16.3%; FY2024: 9,272 / 34,151 = 27.2%, 3,923 / 41,186 = 9.5%, 2,406 / 17,619 = 13.7%; FY2023: 8,954 / 32,549 = 27.5%, 1,444 / 40,635 = 3.6%, 2,465 / 17,111 = 14.4%; FY2022 Entertainment 2,126 / 39,569 = 5.4%; FY2021 Entertainment 5,196 / 36,489 = 14.2%. Domestic Parks & Experiences share of total segment operating income 6,375 / 17,551 = 36.3%; domestic margin 5,876 / 22,677 = 25.9% (FY2023), 5,878 / 23,596 = 24.9% (FY2024), 6,375 / 25,191 = 25.3% (FY2025); Q3 FY2026 2,088 / 7,116 = 29.3%; domestic operating income growth FY2024 5,878 / 5,876 - 1 = 0.0%, FY2025 6,375 / 5,878 - 1 = +8.5%. International margin 1,104 / 5,475 = 20.2%, 1,354 / 6,183 = 21.9%, 1,442 / 6,520 = 22.1%; Q2 FY2026 227 / 1,596 = 14.2%; Q3 FY2026 369 / 1,787 = 20.6%; nine months FY2026 international operating income 428 + 227 + 369 = 1,024. Consumer Products margin 1,974 / 4,397 = 44.9%, 2,040 / 4,372 = 46.7%, 2,178 / 4,445 = 49.0%; Q3 FY2026 560 / 1,065 = 52.6%; share of Experiences revenue 4,445 / 36,156 = 12.3% (about an eighth), of Experiences operating income 2,178 / 9,995 = 21.8% (about a fifth). Experiences capital expenditure 6,429 / 3,659 - 1 = +75.7%; as a share of Experiences operating income 3,659 / 9,272 = 39.5% (FY2024), 6,429 / 9,995 = 64.3% (FY2025). Experiences operating income growth FY2025 9,995 / 9,272 - 1 = +7.8%; revenue growth 34,151 / 32,549 - 1 = +4.9% (FY2024), 36,156 / 34,151 - 1 = +5.9% (FY2025); nine months FY2026 operating income 8,941 / 8,117 - 1 = +10.2%, revenue 29,461 / 27,390 - 1 = +7.6%; company capital expenditure nine months 6,780 / 6,108 - 1 = +11.0%, about 11%. Experiences revenue FY2025 over FY2021 36,156 / 15,961 = 2.27 times. Cruise fleet 6 ships + Destiny + Adventure = 8; + 4 under contract = 12. $60 billion over about 10 years = about $6 billion a year. Media: Linear Networks revenue 9,364 / 12,828 - 1 = -27.0% (FY2022 to FY2025); operating income 2,955 / 5,198 - 1 = -43.2%; FY2025 operating income 2,955 / 3,452 - 1 = -14.4%; margin 5,198 / 12,828 = 40.5% (FY2022), 2,955 / 9,364 = 31.6% (FY2025); linear advertising 2,856 / 4,877 - 1 = -41.4%; linear affiliate fees 6,348 / 7,739 - 1 = -18.0%; FY2025 advertising 2,856 / 3,676 - 1 = -22.3%, affiliate fees 6,348 / 6,872 - 1 = -7.6%. Direct-to-Consumer operating income swing 1,327 - (-3,424) = 4,751 (FY2022 to FY2025); FY2025 margin 1,327 / 24,614 = 5.4%; DTC advertising 3,684 / 3,614 - 1 = +1.9%; advertising share of DTC revenue 3,684 / 24,614 = 15.0%; DTC share of Entertainment revenue 24,614 / 42,466 = 58.0%. Entertainment SVOD margin Q3 FY2026 712 / 5,532 = 12.9%. Entertainment margin Q3 FY2026 1,680 / 11,345 = 14.8%; Entertainment revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (42,466 / 36,489)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.9% a year; nine months FY2026 revenue 34,669 / 32,258 - 1 = +7.5%, operating income 4,116 / 3,983 - 1 = +3.3%. Content Sales/Licensing and Other margin 392 / 8,488 = 4.6%; theatrical distribution share of revenue 2,592 / 94,425 = 2.7%. Subscribers taking both Disney+ and Hulu 43.7 / 27.1 - 1 = +61.3%. Sports: ESPN Domestic margin 2,814 / 14,636 = 19.2% (FY2022), 2,881 / 14,945 = 19.3% (FY2023), 3,056 / 15,339 = 19.9% (FY2024), 2,801 / 16,085 = 17.4% (FY2025); FY2025 revenue 16,085 / 15,339 - 1 = +4.9%, operating income 2,801 / 3,056 - 1 = -8.3%. Sports affiliate and subscription share of revenue 11,944 / 17,672 = 67.6%. Sports programming commitments FY2026-FY2029 9,894 + 9,797 + 9,540 + 9,101 = 38,332, about $38.3 billion; FY2026 commitments over FY2025 Sports revenue 9,894 / 17,672 = 56.0%. Sports nine months FY2026 operating income 1,701 / 1,971 - 1 = -13.7%, revenue 14,018 / 13,692 - 1 = +2.4%. Sports revenue growth FY2021-FY2025 (17,672 / 15,960)^(1/4) - 1 = 2.6% a year. Star India operating losses 237 + 432 + 636 = 1,305 (FY2022-FY2024). ESPN implied value: 10% for $3 billion = about $30 billion. Affiliate fees FY2025: linear 6,348 + Sports affiliate and subscription 11,944 = 18,292, about $18.3 billion. Advertising FY2025: linear 2,856 + DTC 3,684 + Sports 4,444 = 10,984, about $11.0 billion. Cash, capital and valuation: dividend per share 1.50 (FY2026) / 1.00 (FY2025) - 1 = +50%. Experiences headcount 185,000 / 231,000 total = 80.1%, about four in five. SVOD Q3 FY2026 subscription fee increase 4,715 - 4,116 = 599, advertising increase 851 - 830 = 21; SVOD programming and production costs over SVOD revenue 2,577 / 5,532 = 46.6%, nearly half. Old-basis parks segment operating income 7,905 / 471 = 16.8 times (FY2021 to FY2022). trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 94,425 - 71,961 + 76,397 = 98,861, about $98.9 billion; net income 12,404 - 11,091 + 7,287 = 8,600. Restructuring and impairment charges 5,735 (FY2020) + 654 + 237 + 3,892 + 3,595 + 819 (FY2025) + 1,139 (nine months FY2026) = 16,071, about $16.1 billion. Fox goodwill 49,085 / 69,500 = 70.6% of consideration. Goodwill over total assets 73,294 / 197,514 = 37.1% (FY2025); 74,682 / 204,740 = 36.5% (27 June 2026). Buybacks nine months FY2026 7,245 / 68 million shares = $106.5 a share. Fiscal 2026 capital returns at least 9.0bn buybacks + about 2.6bn dividends = about $11.6 billion; free cash flow guided at least 19bn cash from operations - about 9bn capital expenditure = about $10 billion. Nine months FY2026 returned 7,245 + 1,337 = 8,582, / free cash flow 5,735 = 149.6%, about 150%. Net debt 27 June 2026 (8,627 + 37,414 = 46,041) - 5,185 = 40,856; at FY2025 year end 42,026 - 5,695 = 36,331; change 40,856 - 36,331 = 4,525. Unsatisfied performance obligations 16bn / FY2025 revenue 94.425bn = 16.9%. Analyst target 126.61 / 102.19 - 1 = +23.9%, about 24%. Disney market value over Netflix 176.45 / 279.23 = 63.2%, about 63%. Segment bands FY2025 42,466 + 17,672 + 36,156 = 96,294 against reported revenue 94,425 (eliminations 1,869). Nine months FY2026 segment revenues 34,669 + 14,018 + 29,461 = 78,148; Experiences share 29,461 / 78,148 = 37.7%. Year-end market value (31 December after each fiscal year, companiesmarketcap) over net income and revenue: 2015 173.71bn / 8,382 = 20.72, / 52,465 = 3.311; 2016 165.86 / 9,391 = 17.66, / 55,632 = 2.981; 2017 162.04 / 8,980 = 18.04, / 55,137 = 2.939; 2018 164.47 / 12,598 = 13.06, / 59,434 = 2.767; 2019 257.58 / 11,054 = 23.30, / 69,607 = 3.700; 2020 328.02 / 65,388 = 5.017 (loss year); 2021 281.53 / 1,995 = 141.1, / 67,418 = 4.176; 2022 158.43 / 3,145 = 50.38, / 82,722 = 1.915; 2023 165.25 / 2,354 = 70.20, / 88,898 = 1.859; 2024 202.01 / 4,972 = 40.63, / 91,361 = 2.211; 2025 204.17 / 12,404 = 16.46, / 94,425 = 2.162; October 2026 176.45bn / 8,600 = 20.52, / 98,861 = 1.785 - Experiences: shares, margins, capital spending and growth. — FY2015-Q3 FY2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Walt Disney Forms 10-K, 10-Q and earnings releases, SEC XBRL, and stockanalysis.com and companiesmarketcap.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  3. ReportedExperiences capital expenditure was $6,429 million in fiscal 2025, of which $5,271 million domestic and $1,158 million international, against $3,659 million in fiscal 2024.
    The Walt Disney Company fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - income statement, adjusted EPS of $5.93, free cash flow of $10,077 million, capital expenditure by segment and the fiscal 2026 outlook including about $24 billion of content investment. — FY2025 · publ. 13 November 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDisney guides to about $9 billion of company capital spending in fiscal 2026, and spent $6,780 million in the first nine months.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - capital allocation, the A+E sale, cost actions, the Consumer Products move and the fiscal 2026 outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedDisney guides to about $9 billion of company capital spending in fiscal 2026, and spent $6,780 million in the first nine months.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - capital allocation, the A+E sale, cost actions, the Consumer Products move and the fiscal 2026 outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedParks, resorts and other property rose to $44,744 million at 27 June 2026 from $41,255 million in September 2025, with attractions, buildings and equipment at $87,448 million before depreciation.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - income statement, adjusted EPS, cash flow and balance sheet. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDisney expects these projects "over their lifetimes, to deliver double-digit returns".
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Experiences results, global guests, domestic attendance and per-capita spending, the parks outside the United States. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThat is the right claim to test, because the parks earned a margin of about 30% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 and the question is whether new capital earns as much as old.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Experiences results, global guests, domestic attendance and per-capita spending, the parks outside the United States. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedDisneyland Paris showed "strong attendance growth" after the opening of World of Frozen, an example of a new land lifting an existing resort rather than requiring new land.
    The Walt Disney Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Experiences results, global guests, domestic attendance and per-capita spending, the parks outside the United States. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIt was $9,995 million in fiscal 2025.
    The Walt Disney Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 September 2025) - Item 1 business and the segment note: the three segments, revenue and segment operating income, and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 13 November 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026