⚠ The Dividend Is the Promise That Cannot MoveModerate threat

Starbucks (SBUX) — threat to the moat

Sixteen consecutive dividend raises is a promise management protects ahead of everything else, which is one fewer lever in the middle of a turnaround.

1. ReportedThe dividend is $2.48 a share annually and Starbucks has raised it every year since 2010.
   Starbucks Corporation (Nasdaq: SBUX) market data, 23 September 2026 - $94.39 a share, market capitalisation $107.59 billion on 1.14 billion shares, P/E 54.63, forward P/E 32.30, dividend $2.48 (2.62% yield) (companiesmarketcap: $107.67 billion) — September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
2. ReportedAgainst fiscal 2025 net earnings of $1,856.4 million, the dividend alone consumes substantially more than the accounting profit, and total shareholder returns were $2.8 billion.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis. Total net revenues increased 3% to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2025 compared to $36.2 billion; consolidated operating income decreased to $2.9 billion from $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 7.9% against 15.0% — a contraction of 710 basis points primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of the support organisation (approximately 240 basis points), deleverage (approximately 210 basis points), investments in support of Back to Starbucks largely in labour hours (approximately 130 basis points) and inflation (approximately 80 basis points). Diluted EPS declined to $1.63 from $3.31. Capital expenditures were $2.3 billion against $2.8 billion, and $2.8 billion was returned to shareholders against $3.8 billion. Consolidated net revenues by type: company-operated stores $30,744.8M (+3.3%), licensed stores $4,350.4M (-3.4%), other $2,089.2M (+9.7%). Company-operated store revenue rose $979 million on net new company-operated store growth of 5%, or 1,010 stores, prior to the 627 restructuring closures late in the fourth quarter, plus $131 million from the conversion of 113 licensed stores following the 23.5 Degrees acquisition, partially offset by a 1% decline in comparable store sales ($408 million) attributable to a 2% decline in comparable transactions partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket, primarily due to annualization of prior year pricing. By segment: North America total net revenues $27,373.1M (company-operated $24,793.0M at 90.6%, licensed $2,575.6M), operating income $3,156.7M with the margin contracting 830 basis points to 11.5% driven by deleverage (approximately 310 basis points), restructuring (approximately 240) and Back to Starbucks investments largely in labour hours (approximately 180); North America revenue rose 1% on net new company-operated store growth of 4%, or 441 stores, prior to the 584 restructuring closures, offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket; store operating expenses were 56.4% of related revenues against 51.4%. International total net revenues $7,819.9M (+7%), operating income $950.0M at a 12.1% margin, contracting 210 basis points. Channel Development net revenues $1,871.7M (+6%), operating income $885.1M at a 47.3% margin, contracting 500 basis points primarily driven by a decline in North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income (approximately 350 basis points) and higher global product costs (approximately 90 basis points), with income from equity investees of $249.6M. Corporate and Other operating loss $(2,055.2)M. Cash and investments were $3.7 billion. Store closures in North America were substantially completed in fiscal 2025 and international closures were expected to complete in the first half of fiscal 2026; Starbucks expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by sales transfer to nearby coffeehouses, and expects the future impact on operating margins to be slightly accretive. The Green Apron Service model went live across the full US company-operated store portfolio in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, and Starbucks expects macroeconomic challenges including new tariffs and dynamic coffee prices to continue. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
3. ReportedCash flow covers it — $4,747.5 million of operating cash against $2,305.5 million of capital expenditure and $2.8 billion of returns leaves a gap of roughly $350 million, and depreciation and impairments of $2.6 billion are non-cash.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis. Total net revenues increased 3% to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2025 compared to $36.2 billion; consolidated operating income decreased to $2.9 billion from $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 7.9% against 15.0% — a contraction of 710 basis points primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of the support organisation (approximately 240 basis points), deleverage (approximately 210 basis points), investments in support of Back to Starbucks largely in labour hours (approximately 130 basis points) and inflation (approximately 80 basis points). Diluted EPS declined to $1.63 from $3.31. Capital expenditures were $2.3 billion against $2.8 billion, and $2.8 billion was returned to shareholders against $3.8 billion. Consolidated net revenues by type: company-operated stores $30,744.8M (+3.3%), licensed stores $4,350.4M (-3.4%), other $2,089.2M (+9.7%). Company-operated store revenue rose $979 million on net new company-operated store growth of 5%, or 1,010 stores, prior to the 627 restructuring closures late in the fourth quarter, plus $131 million from the conversion of 113 licensed stores following the 23.5 Degrees acquisition, partially offset by a 1% decline in comparable store sales ($408 million) attributable to a 2% decline in comparable transactions partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket, primarily due to annualization of prior year pricing. By segment: North America total net revenues $27,373.1M (company-operated $24,793.0M at 90.6%, licensed $2,575.6M), operating income $3,156.7M with the margin contracting 830 basis points to 11.5% driven by deleverage (approximately 310 basis points), restructuring (approximately 240) and Back to Starbucks investments largely in labour hours (approximately 180); North America revenue rose 1% on net new company-operated store growth of 4%, or 441 stores, prior to the 584 restructuring closures, offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket; store operating expenses were 56.4% of related revenues against 51.4%. International total net revenues $7,819.9M (+7%), operating income $950.0M at a 12.1% margin, contracting 210 basis points. Channel Development net revenues $1,871.7M (+6%), operating income $885.1M at a 47.3% margin, contracting 500 basis points primarily driven by a decline in North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income (approximately 350 basis points) and higher global product costs (approximately 90 basis points), with income from equity investees of $249.6M. Corporate and Other operating loss $(2,055.2)M. Cash and investments were $3.7 billion. Store closures in North America were substantially completed in fiscal 2025 and international closures were expected to complete in the first half of fiscal 2026; Starbucks expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by sales transfer to nearby coffeehouses, and expects the future impact on operating margins to be slightly accretive. The Green Apron Service model went live across the full US company-operated store portfolio in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, and Starbucks expects macroeconomic challenges including new tariffs and dynamic coffee prices to continue. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
4. ReportedA dividend that has been raised for sixteen consecutive years is a promise a management team will protect ahead of almost anything else, and Starbucks protected it by cutting buybacks instead — returns fell from $3.8 billion to $2.8 billion while the share count actually rose from 1,133.5 million to 1,136.9 million.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis. Total net revenues increased 3% to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2025 compared to $36.2 billion; consolidated operating income decreased to $2.9 billion from $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 7.9% against 15.0% — a contraction of 710 basis points primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of the support organisation (approximately 240 basis points), deleverage (approximately 210 basis points), investments in support of Back to Starbucks largely in labour hours (approximately 130 basis points) and inflation (approximately 80 basis points). Diluted EPS declined to $1.63 from $3.31. Capital expenditures were $2.3 billion against $2.8 billion, and $2.8 billion was returned to shareholders against $3.8 billion. Consolidated net revenues by type: company-operated stores $30,744.8M (+3.3%), licensed stores $4,350.4M (-3.4%), other $2,089.2M (+9.7%). Company-operated store revenue rose $979 million on net new company-operated store growth of 5%, or 1,010 stores, prior to the 627 restructuring closures late in the fourth quarter, plus $131 million from the conversion of 113 licensed stores following the 23.5 Degrees acquisition, partially offset by a 1% decline in comparable store sales ($408 million) attributable to a 2% decline in comparable transactions partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket, primarily due to annualization of prior year pricing. By segment: North America total net revenues $27,373.1M (company-operated $24,793.0M at 90.6%, licensed $2,575.6M), operating income $3,156.7M with the margin contracting 830 basis points to 11.5% driven by deleverage (approximately 310 basis points), restructuring (approximately 240) and Back to Starbucks investments largely in labour hours (approximately 180); North America revenue rose 1% on net new company-operated store growth of 4%, or 441 stores, prior to the 584 restructuring closures, offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket; store operating expenses were 56.4% of related revenues against 51.4%. International total net revenues $7,819.9M (+7%), operating income $950.0M at a 12.1% margin, contracting 210 basis points. Channel Development net revenues $1,871.7M (+6%), operating income $885.1M at a 47.3% margin, contracting 500 basis points primarily driven by a decline in North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income (approximately 350 basis points) and higher global product costs (approximately 90 basis points), with income from equity investees of $249.6M. Corporate and Other operating loss $(2,055.2)M. Cash and investments were $3.7 billion. Store closures in North America were substantially completed in fiscal 2025 and international closures were expected to complete in the first half of fiscal 2026; Starbucks expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by sales transfer to nearby coffeehouses, and expects the future impact on operating margins to be slightly accretive. The Green Apron Service model went live across the full US company-operated store portfolio in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, and Starbucks expects macroeconomic challenges including new tariffs and dynamic coffee prices to continue. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗

• Starbucks Corporation Form 10-K, FY2025 (SEC EDGAR)