⚠ Fee Income Is Growing Slower Than the Spread It Should ReplaceHigh threat

PKO Bank Polski (PKO) — threat to the moat

The line meant to cushion a falling margin is growing more slowly than the margin is falling.

Net fee and commission income rose 2,4% in 2025 while net interest income rose 9,3%1, so PKO's income became more dependent on rates in the year rates were about to fall.

Growth rates that should be the other way round (%)+9,3%Net interest income+2,4%Fee and commission incomeThe diversification is not happening fast enough to matter when the margin turns
PKO needs fees to grow faster than interest income, not slower. In 2025 the gap widened by nearly seven points.

That is the wrong direction and the bank knows it. Fees are 17,3% of the result on business activities2 and the whole strategic logic of the Allegro partnership and Automarket is to build income that does not depend on the National Bank of Poland3.

Those bets are early. Automarket grew vehicle sales 60% year on year4 from a small base, and 29% in the first half of 2026, to 5 339 vehicles,5 and the Allegro relationship is described in PKO's own report as "the Bank's first ecosystem"6 — a first, at a bank founded more than a century ago.

Meanwhile the exposure is live: the margin fell 44 basis points in the first half of 2026 and interest income fell 1 213 million złoty7.

The falsifier is fee growth against interest income growth. Fees outgrowing the spread for a full year would be the first evidence that the ecosystem strategy is more than a section heading. Another year at 2,4% would mean PKO faces the rate cycle with the income mix it already has.

References
  1. ReportedNet fee and commission income rose 2,4% in 2025 while net interest income rose 9,3%, so PKO's income became more dependent on rates in the year rates were about to fall.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026, published with reviewed financial statements (profit before tax of 8 319m złoty up 19,9%, income tax of 3 029m up 67,4%, net profit of 5 290m up 3,1%, return on equity of 19,3%, cost-to-income of 31,4%, interest margin of 4,47% against 4,91%, cost of risk of 0,29%, total assets past 608 448m, 12,6 million customers, common equity tier 1 of 15,55%, and a further 685m złoty of convertible-currency legal risk) — H1 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcFees are 17,3% of the result on business activities and the whole strategic logic of the Allegro partnership and Automarket is to build income that does not depend on the National Bank of Poland.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures PKO reports: the Swiss franc charge as a share of net profit (4 365 over 10 682), financing per employee (315 953 over 26 252 against 247 572 over 25 657), current accounts as a share of customers (9 764 over 12 460), deposits less financing (460 722 less 315 953), and the levy against fee income (1 349 over 5 243), credit losses excluding legal risk (5 859 less 4 365 = 1 494), the income mix (24 223 and 5 243 over 30 370 = 79,8% and 17,3%), net profit growth (10 682 against 9 304 = 14,8%), financing per employee (315 953 over 26 252 = 12,0m), and customers against Poland's population (12,46m of 37,33m) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcFees are 17,3% of the result on business activities and the whole strategic logic of the Allegro partnership and Automarket is to build income that does not depend on the National Bank of Poland.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures PKO reports: the Swiss franc charge as a share of net profit (4 365 over 10 682), financing per employee (315 953 over 26 252 against 247 572 over 25 657), current accounts as a share of customers (9 764 over 12 460), deposits less financing (460 722 less 315 953), and the levy against fee income (1 349 over 5 243), credit losses excluding legal risk (5 859 less 4 365 = 1 494), the income mix (24 223 and 5 243 over 30 370 = 79,8% and 17,3%), net profit growth (10 682 against 9 304 = 14,8%), financing per employee (315 953 over 26 252 = 12,0m), and customers against Poland's population (12,46m of 37,33m) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAutomarket grew vehicle sales 60% year on year from a small base, and the Allegro relationship is described in PKO's own report as "the Bank's first ecosystem" — a first, at a bank founded more than a century ago.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - strategy and ecosystems (the 2025-2027 targets of a return on equity above 18% in 2027 assuming a reference rate near 3% and a market share above 20% in banking financing and in financing Poland's energy transition, the Partnership with Allegro described as the Bank's first ecosystem with Allegro Klik and Allegro Kapital, and Automarket.pl as the second with vehicle sales up 60%) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAutomarket vehicle sales grew 29% in the first half of 2026, to 5 339 vehicles.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 - Automarket.pl: 5 339 vehicle sales in H1 2026, up 29%; interest margin 4,47%; amounts due to customers PLN 475 762 million — H1 2026 · publ. 2026-08 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAutomarket grew vehicle sales 60% year on year from a small base, and the Allegro relationship is described in PKO's own report as "the Bank's first ecosystem" — a first, at a bank founded more than a century ago.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - strategy and ecosystems (the 2025-2027 targets of a return on equity above 18% in 2027 assuming a reference rate near 3% and a market share above 20% in banking financing and in financing Poland's energy transition, the Partnership with Allegro described as the Bank's first ecosystem with Allegro Klik and Allegro Kapital, and Automarket.pl as the second with vehicle sales up 60%) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMeanwhile the exposure is live: the margin fell 44 basis points in the first half of 2026 and interest income fell 1 213 million złoty.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026, published with reviewed financial statements (profit before tax of 8 319m złoty up 19,9%, income tax of 3 029m up 67,4%, net profit of 5 290m up 3,1%, return on equity of 19,3%, cost-to-income of 31,4%, interest margin of 4,47% against 4,91%, cost of risk of 0,29%, total assets past 608 448m, 12,6 million customers, common equity tier 1 of 15,55%, and a further 685m złoty of convertible-currency legal risk) — H1 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026