✦ A Tax Rate That Falls by StatuteNarrow moat

PKO Bank Polski (PKO) — the future bets

The same law that took the rate to 30 percent in 2026 takes it back to 23 by 2028 — a growth story written by a legislature.

The largest single swing factor in PKO's earnings over the next three years is written into Polish tax law rather than into any business plan.

Corporate income tax rate on commercial banks19%202530%202626%202723%2028Eleven points up with four weeks' notice, then seven points back on a published timetable
The single largest driver of PKO is earnings over the next three years is a schedule in a statute. The risk is symmetric, and 2025 showed how fast it moves.

Corporate income tax on commercial banks rose to 30% for 2026 and is legislated to fall to 26% in 2027 and 23% in 20281. The first half of 2026 shows what the current rate costs: profit before tax up 19,9%, income tax up 67,4%, net profit up 3,1%2.

Run that in reverse. If pre-tax profit merely holds and the rate steps down as written, net profit rises materially in 2027 and again in 2028 without the bank selling anything to anybody.

The bet is therefore on legislative follow-through, and the record gives reasons for caution in both directions. The rise itself was enacted quickly and framed as financing defence spending; a Polish finance minister proposed a further increase in bank taxation as recently as July 2026. Equally, the reductions were legislated at the same time as the rise, as part of one package.

There is no hedging this and no management action that affects it.

The asset levy moves the same way and is part of the same package: from 0,0366% to 0,0329% in 2027 and 0,0293% in 20283, against the 1 349 million złoty it cost in 20254. Both reliefs are legislated, and both are legislation the same parliament can revisit.

Grade this on the effective tax rate in the 2027 accounts. It is the cleanest test in the company: either the schedule holds, or the 2026 rate was a floor rather than a peak.

Moat trajectory: Widening

30% in 2026, 26% in 2027, 23% in 2028. Seven points of statutory relief arriving on a published timetable.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Effective income tax rate, first half
36,4% in H1 2026 (3 029m zł on 8 319m zł pre-tax), from 26,1%

The statutory cut to 26% and 23% should show up here in 2027 and 2028; a rate staying near 36% would mean the other levies, not the rate, set the burden.

How it's calculated: Income tax expense / profit before tax: 3 029 / 8 319 and 1 809 / 6 939
Source: PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedCorporate income tax on commercial banks rose to 30% for 2026 and is legislated to fall to 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe first half of 2026 shows what the current rate costs: profit before tax up 19,9%, income tax up 67,4%, net profit up 3,1%.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026, published with reviewed financial statements (profit before tax of 8 319m złoty up 19,9%, income tax of 3 029m up 67,4%, net profit of 5 290m up 3,1%, return on equity of 19,3%, cost-to-income of 31,4%, interest margin of 4,47% against 4,91%, cost of risk of 0,29%, total assets past 608 448m, 12,6 million customers, common equity tier 1 of 15,55%, and a further 685m złoty of convertible-currency legal risk) — H1 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe asset levy moves the same way and is part of the same package: from 0,0366% to 0,0329% in 2027 and 0,0293% in 2028, against the 1 349 million złoty it cost in 2025.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe asset levy moves the same way and is part of the same package: from 0,0366% to 0,0329% in 2027 and 0,0293% in 2028, against the 1 349 million złoty it cost in 2025.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026