⚠ Buybacks at a Record ValuationModerate threat

ITOCHU (8001) — threat to the moat

ITOCHU's biggest buyback is happening at close to its highest valuation.

ITOCHU's market value was ¥13,802 billion at March 2026, 15.3 times net profit12, and about 17 times trailing earnings in September3. At March 2019 the multiple was about 6 times4.

P/E at March year-end6.120197.4202211.6202415.32026Market value over net profit; ITOCHU FIR 2026 and Financial Section 2021
The multiple has more than doubled since 2019.

A buyback at a higher multiple buys less earnings per yen. The tender discount of 10%5 helps, but only on half the programme.

The analysts' average target price is ¥2,502.226, and the 52-week range ¥1,650.20 to ¥2,399.007.

The measure is the earnings yield of the buyback. At about 17 times earnings, each ¥100 of buyback buys about ¥6 of annual profit.

References
  1. ReportedITOCHU's market value was ¥13,802 billion at March 2026, 15.3 times net profit, and about 17 times trailing earnings in September.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Financial Information Report 2026 - the six-year financial summary, ROE, employees and market capitalisation. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 June 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcITOCHU's market value was ¥13,802 billion at March 2026, 15.3 times net profit, and about 17 times trailing earnings in September.
    Moat Explorer calculation from ITOCHU's reported figures. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 900.3 - 283.9 + 293.8 = 910.1; revenue 14,823.1 - 3,558.9 + 3,875.9 = 15,140.1; EPS 128.00 - 40.10 + 42.02 = 129.92. Market value at 24 September 2026: 6,993,053,267 shares x ¥2,220.5 = ¥15.53 trillion. P/E at March year-end: market value over net profit, e.g. 13,802 / 900.3 = 15.3 (2026), 6,090 / 820.3 = 7.4 (2022), 3,046 / 500.5 = 6.1 (2019). Non-resource share of profit: 774.7 / (774.7 + 133.3) = 85%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Machinery 155.6 / 2,603.5 = 6.0%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,793.4 = 8.0%; ICT & Financial 93.0 / 1,577.2 = 5.9%; Food 92.1 / 2,403.4 = 3.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 1,819.4 = 3.8%; General Products & Realty 60.8 / 1,628.7 = 3.7%; The 8th 45.0 / 2,197.3 = 2.0%; Textile 43.3 / 751.9 = 5.8%. Segment net margin on revenue: Food 92.1 / 5,134.2 = 1.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 3,069.6 = 2.3%; Machinery 155.6 / 1,500.6 = 10.4%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,231.5 = 11.7%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,886 / 4,165 = 2.13 times; dividend on cost 181 / 4,165 = 4.3%. Self-tender: 82,735,750 x ¥1,813 = about ¥150.0 billion. Net profit growth since the year to March 2016: 900.3 / 240.4 = 3.7 times. Dividend growth: 42.0 / 10.0 = 4.2 times (split-adjusted). ROE spread over the company's cost of capital: 14.6 - 8 = 6.6 points. Equity growth: 6,590.0 / 5,755.1 = 1.15. Stake in DENTSU SOKEN at the tender price: ¥215.2 billion for 38%. ACG profit target over investment: ¥50 billion is the aerospace target, about ¥310 billion the ACG investment. Berkshire's stake at ¥2,220.5: 704,799,500 x 2,220.5 = about ¥1.565 trillion. ITOCHU over Marubeni net profit: 900.3 / 543.9 = 1.66. 8% hurdle on the CSN Mineração additional investment: 0.08 x 119.2 = 9.5. 8% hurdle on ¥215.2 billion: about ¥17.2 billion. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in ITOCHU's financial statements, results decks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedITOCHU's market value was ¥13,802 billion at March 2026, 15.3 times net profit, and about 17 times trailing earnings in September.
    ITOCHU (TYO: 8001) market data - share price, trailing net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, 52-week range and analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcAt March 2019 the multiple was about 6 times.
    Moat Explorer calculation from ITOCHU's reported figures. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 900.3 - 283.9 + 293.8 = 910.1; revenue 14,823.1 - 3,558.9 + 3,875.9 = 15,140.1; EPS 128.00 - 40.10 + 42.02 = 129.92. Market value at 24 September 2026: 6,993,053,267 shares x ¥2,220.5 = ¥15.53 trillion. P/E at March year-end: market value over net profit, e.g. 13,802 / 900.3 = 15.3 (2026), 6,090 / 820.3 = 7.4 (2022), 3,046 / 500.5 = 6.1 (2019). Non-resource share of profit: 774.7 / (774.7 + 133.3) = 85%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Machinery 155.6 / 2,603.5 = 6.0%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,793.4 = 8.0%; ICT & Financial 93.0 / 1,577.2 = 5.9%; Food 92.1 / 2,403.4 = 3.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 1,819.4 = 3.8%; General Products & Realty 60.8 / 1,628.7 = 3.7%; The 8th 45.0 / 2,197.3 = 2.0%; Textile 43.3 / 751.9 = 5.8%. Segment net margin on revenue: Food 92.1 / 5,134.2 = 1.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 3,069.6 = 2.3%; Machinery 155.6 / 1,500.6 = 10.4%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,231.5 = 11.7%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,886 / 4,165 = 2.13 times; dividend on cost 181 / 4,165 = 4.3%. Self-tender: 82,735,750 x ¥1,813 = about ¥150.0 billion. Net profit growth since the year to March 2016: 900.3 / 240.4 = 3.7 times. Dividend growth: 42.0 / 10.0 = 4.2 times (split-adjusted). ROE spread over the company's cost of capital: 14.6 - 8 = 6.6 points. Equity growth: 6,590.0 / 5,755.1 = 1.15. Stake in DENTSU SOKEN at the tender price: ¥215.2 billion for 38%. ACG profit target over investment: ¥50 billion is the aerospace target, about ¥310 billion the ACG investment. Berkshire's stake at ¥2,220.5: 704,799,500 x 2,220.5 = about ¥1.565 trillion. ITOCHU over Marubeni net profit: 900.3 / 543.9 = 1.66. 8% hurdle on the CSN Mineração additional investment: 0.08 x 119.2 = 9.5. 8% hurdle on ¥215.2 billion: about ¥17.2 billion. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in ITOCHU's financial statements, results decks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedThe tender discount of 10% helps, but only on half the programme.
    ITOCHU Corporation, announcement of a tender offer for its own shares, 3 August 2026 - the tender price of ¥1,813 and the shareholders expected to tender. — August 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe analysts' average target price is ¥2,502.22, and the 52-week range ¥1,650.20 to ¥2,399.00.
    ITOCHU (TYO: 8001) market data - share price, trailing net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, 52-week range and analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe analysts' average target price is ¥2,502.22, and the 52-week range ¥1,650.20 to ¥2,399.00.
    ITOCHU (TYO: 8001) market data - share price, trailing net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, 52-week range and analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026