✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

ITOCHU (8001) — the future bets

ITOCHU is spending about ¥1.5 trillion in one year on aircraft leasing, IT services and property, and needs a 10% return to keep its record.

ITOCHU's plan for the year to March 2027 is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%1, core profit of ¥900.0 billion2, a dividend of at least ¥443 and buybacks of at least ¥300.0 billion4. It left the forecast unchanged after the first quarter5, when it reached 31% of the net profit target6.

Net profit (¥ bn, years to March)801.82024880.32025900.32026950.02027 planITOCHU FIR 2026 and results
Steady growth, planned to continue.

The growth comes from investment: about ¥1.5 trillion planned for the year7, of which about ¥670 billion had been committed by the first-quarter results8. Four commitments show where it is going.

Aircraft leasing, through a 50% stake in Aviation Capital Group for about US$1,946 million910. IT services, through an investment of up to ¥215.2 billion for 38% of DENTSU SOKEN11. Tokyo office renovation, through 21.2% of Sun Frontier Fudousan for ¥32.3 billion1213. And construction machinery, through the larger stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery14.

These are consistent with the company's strategy of buying into businesses downstream, close to customers15. They are also a larger commitment of capital in one year than ITOCHU has made before.

The company also expects to keep leverage in check: net debt to equity of about 0.616, and a balance sheet consistent with an A rating17.

The measure is the return on the ¥1.5 trillion. ITOCHU's record on non-resource investments is 10%18; matching it would add about ¥150 billion of annual profit over time.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The investment pace has roughly doubled.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Net profit guidance for the year to March 2027
¥950.0bn, up 5.5%

The first quarter delivered 31%; the plan was left unchanged.

Source: ITOCHU financial results, year to March 2026 ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Aviation Capital Group
ITOCHU is buying half of an aircraft lessor to reach ¥50 billion of aerospace profit in five years.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
DENTSU SOKEN
ITOCHU is adding a second IT services company through another take-private.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Sun Frontier and Tokyo Offices
ITOCHU bought a fifth of the company that leads the renovation of old Tokyo offices.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
One and a Half Trillion Yen of Growth Investment
ITOCHU plans to invest almost twice as much this year as last, and had committed almost half by August.
References
  1. ReportedITOCHU's plan for the year to March 2027 is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%, core profit of ¥900.0 billion, a dividend of at least ¥44 and buybacks of at least ¥300.0 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - statements of comprehensive income, financial position and cash flows, the segment information by eight division companies, the share split, dividends, the buyback plan and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedITOCHU's plan for the year to March 2027 is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%, core profit of ¥900.0 billion, a dividend of at least ¥44 and buybacks of at least ¥300.0 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks and payout), ROE, leverage and share-price performance against TOPIX. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedITOCHU's plan for the year to March 2027 is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%, core profit of ¥900.0 billion, a dividend of at least ¥44 and buybacks of at least ¥300.0 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - statements of comprehensive income, financial position and cash flows, the segment information by eight division companies, the share split, dividends, the buyback plan and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedITOCHU's plan for the year to March 2027 is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%, core profit of ¥900.0 billion, a dividend of at least ¥44 and buybacks of at least ¥300.0 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - statements of comprehensive income, financial position and cash flows, the segment information by eight division companies, the share split, dividends, the buyback plan and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt left the forecast unchanged after the first quarter, when it reached 31% of the net profit target.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenues, trading income, equity earnings, net profit, segment results, the balance sheet and the ¥300 billion buyback. — April-June 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt left the forecast unchanged after the first quarter, when it reached 31% of the net profit target.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe growth comes from investment: about ¥1.5 trillion planned for the year, of which about ¥670 billion had been committed by the first-quarter results.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - net profit, core profit and extraordinary items by segment, investment and exit, and the management plan for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe growth comes from investment: about ¥1.5 trillion planned for the year, of which about ¥670 billion had been committed by the first-quarter results.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAircraft leasing, through a 50% stake in Aviation Capital Group for about US$1,946 million.
    ITOCHU Corporation, basic agreement on the acquisition of a 50% interest in Aviation Capital Group, 3 August 2026. — August 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedAircraft leasing, through a 50% stake in Aviation Capital Group for about US$1,946 million.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedIT services, through an investment of up to ¥215.2 billion for 38% of DENTSU SOKEN.
    ITOCHU Corporation, presentation on the alliance with Dentsu, 31 August 2026 - investment of up to ¥215.2 billion for a 38% stake in DENTSU SOKEN. — August 2026 · publ. 31 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedTokyo office renovation, through 21.2% of Sun Frontier Fudousan for ¥32.3 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - results of major group companies by segment, with ownership, including FamilyMart, CTC, DESCENTE, NIPPON ACCESS, IMEA and Orchid (CITIC). — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedTokyo office renovation, through 21.2% of Sun Frontier Fudousan for ¥32.3 billion.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedAnd construction machinery, through the larger stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThese are consistent with the company's strategy of buying into businesses downstream, close to customers.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - net profit, core profit and extraordinary items by segment, investment and exit, and the management plan for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedThe company also expects to keep leverage in check: net debt to equity of about 0.6, and a balance sheet consistent with an A rating.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks and payout), ROE, leverage and share-price performance against TOPIX. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedThe company also expects to keep leverage in check: net debt to equity of about 0.6, and a balance sheet consistent with an A rating.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks and payout), ROE, leverage and share-price performance against TOPIX. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  18. ReportedITOCHU's record on non-resource investments is 10%; matching it would add about ¥150 billion of annual profit over time.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - resource and non-resource profit, equity production volumes and sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026