⚠ One Commodity, One PriceModerate threat

ITOCHU (8001) — threat to the moat

Most of ITOCHU's resource profit rests on one commodity whose price ITOCHU does not set.

ITOCHU's resource profit depends heavily on iron ore: IMEA's iron ore business earned ¥122.6 billion in the latest year1, most of the ¥133.3 billion of total resource profit2. Its buyers are steelmakers, whose demand follows their own steel output.

Iron ore sensitivityFull-year plan, per $1 a tonneabout ¥1.85bnRemaining quarters, per $1about ¥1.16bnEquity sales plan31.4 MtITOCHU results presentation, May 2026; first-quarter summary
Each dollar on the iron ore price is worth almost ¥2 billion a year.

The company's sensitivity of about ¥1.85 billion per dollar a tonne3 means a $20 fall would cost about ¥37 billion of net profit. Its plan for the current year assumes iron ore sales of 31.4 million tonnes4.

ITOCHU's plan for the current year assumes the resource share of profit rises again, putting non-resources at about 80%5, which means it expects resource profit to recover.

The measure is the iron ore price against the plan. The company updated its sensitivity to ¥1.16 billion for the remaining quarters6, which reflects the part of the year already priced.

References
  1. ReportedITOCHU's resource profit depends heavily on iron ore: IMEA's iron ore business earned ¥122.6 billion in the latest year, most of the ¥133.3 billion of total resource profit.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - results of major group companies by segment, with ownership, including FamilyMart, CTC, DESCENTE, NIPPON ACCESS, IMEA and Orchid (CITIC). — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedITOCHU's resource profit depends heavily on iron ore: IMEA's iron ore business earned ¥122.6 billion in the latest year, most of the ¥133.3 billion of total resource profit.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - results of major group companies by segment, with ownership, including FamilyMart, CTC, DESCENTE, NIPPON ACCESS, IMEA and Orchid (CITIC). — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company's sensitivity of about ¥1.85 billion per dollar a tonne means a $20 fall would cost about ¥37 billion of net profit.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - resource and non-resource profit, equity production volumes and sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts plan for the current year assumes iron ore sales of 31.4 million tonnes.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - resource and non-resource profit, equity production volumes and sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedITOCHU's plan for the current year assumes the resource share of profit rises again, putting non-resources at about 80%, which means it expects resource profit to recover.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - resource and non-resource profit, equity production volumes and sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe company updated its sensitivity to ¥1.16 billion for the remaining quarters, which reflects the part of the year already priced.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2026 first-quarter business results summary - core profit, extraordinary items, group-company results, investments, the Aviation Capital Group agreement and the revised segment plan. — April-June 2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026