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◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — the variant view

The market cut T-Mobile's value by about 31% from its 2024 year-end level as phone growth faded from view, while free cash flow of about 10% of its value keeps arriving.

📈 TMUS valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

The market has marked T-Mobile down hard. The shares closed at $164.64 on 5 October 2026, down 28.50% in 52 weeks12, for a market value of $176.60 billion3. At the end of 2024 the company was worth $256.15 billion4. It now trades at 17.26 times trailing earnings and 13.11 times forward5, against about 20.7 times at the end of 2025 and 22.6 times at the end of 20246.

T-Mobile price-to-earnings ratio at year end22.3202322.6202420.7202516.7Oct 2026Moat Explorer calculation from stockanalysis.com market values and filed net income
The lowest earnings multiple since 2017, on record cash flow.

The business did not shrink in that time. Service revenues grew 8.9% in the June 2026 quarter and Core Adjusted EBITDA 11.7%7, and guidance was raised8. What changed is visibility: T-Mobile stopped reporting phone customers9, net account additions fell 13%10, and about half of 2025's phone-base growth turned out to have been UScellular11. The market is pricing the end of organic phone growth.

What it is not pricing is the cash. Trailing free cash flow was $18.40 billion12, about 10.4% of the market value13, and T-Mobile guides to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion for 202614. Nearly all of it goes back to owners: the 2026 return program is $18.2 billion15, about 10.3% of the market value16. At a lower share price, each dollar retires more shares.

There is a qualification that matters. Those buybacks also raise Deutsche Telekom's stake17, and they are partly funded with debt18. A minority owner is being paid well to accept a smaller and smaller voice.

The enterprise value tells the same story with debt included. T-Mobile's enterprise value was $294.21 billion, 8.56 times EBITDA19, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio was 13.1120. That forward figure assumes earnings rise from here; the trailing one does not need to.

The view here is that the market is right about growth and too gloomy about value. Analysts' average target is $241.8421; the simpler test is free cash flow per share, and if 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow came in below $18 billion, the market's pessimism would be justified.

References
  1. Third-party estimateThe shares closed at $164.64 on 5 October 2026, down 28.50% in 52 weeks, for a market value of $176.60 billion.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US quote page, close of 5 October 2026: $164.64, market value $176.60bn, P/E 17.26, forward P/E 13.11, dividend $4.68 (2.84%), 52-week range $160.81-$231.02, trailing revenue $92.19bn, net income $10.56bn and EPS $9.54, analysts' target $241.84. — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateThe shares closed at $164.64 on 5 October 2026, down 28.50% in 52 weeks, for a market value of $176.60 billion.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US statistics, October 2026: 1.07 billion shares, P/S 1.92, P/B 3.15, enterprise value $294.21bn, EV/EBITDA 8.56, trailing free cash flow $18.40bn, price down 28.50% in 52 weeks, shares outstanding down 3.93% in a year, return on invested capital 8.93% and a weighted average cost of capital of 4.60% (stockanalysis estimates). — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateThe shares closed at $164.64 on 5 October 2026, down 28.50% in 52 weeks, for a market value of $176.60 billion.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US quote page, close of 5 October 2026: $164.64, market value $176.60bn, P/E 17.26, forward P/E 13.11, dividend $4.68 (2.84%), 52-week range $160.81-$231.02, trailing revenue $92.19bn, net income $10.56bn and EPS $9.54, analysts' target $241.84. — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateAt the end of 2024 the company was worth $256.15 billion.
    stockanalysis.com, market capitalisation history: T-Mobile US year-end values $31.92bn (2015), $47.39bn, $52.84bn, $53.97bn, $67.09bn, $167.37bn, $144.87bn, $174.18bn, $185.42bn, $256.15bn, $227.10bn (2025); Verizon $190.79bn and AT&T $166.51bn in October 2026. — 2015-2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateIt now trades at 17.26 times trailing earnings and 13.11 times forward, against about 20.7 times at the end of 2025 and 22.6 times at the end of 2024.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US quote page, close of 5 October 2026: $164.64, market value $176.60bn, P/E 17.26, forward P/E 13.11, dividend $4.68 (2.84%), 52-week range $160.81-$231.02, trailing revenue $92.19bn, net income $10.56bn and EPS $9.54, analysts' target $241.84. — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcIt now trades at 17.26 times trailing earnings and 13.11 times forward, against about 20.7 times at the end of 2025 and 22.6 times at the end of 2024.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  7. Moat Explorer calcService revenues grew 8.9% in the June 2026 quarter and Core Adjusted EBITDA 11.7%, and guidance was raised.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  8. ReportedService revenues grew 8.9% in the June 2026 quarter and Core Adjusted EBITDA 11.7%, and guidance was raised.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedWhat changed is visibility: T-Mobile stopped reporting phone customers, net account additions fell 13%, and about half of 2025's phone-base growth turned out to have been UScellular.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - acquisitions and joint ventures: UScellular, Metronet, Lumos, Ka'ena, Vistar and Blis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedWhat changed is visibility: T-Mobile stopped reporting phone customers, net account additions fell 13%, and about half of 2025's phone-base growth turned out to have been UScellular.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. Moat Explorer calcWhat changed is visibility: T-Mobile stopped reporting phone customers, net account additions fell 13%, and about half of 2025's phone-base growth turned out to have been UScellular.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - customers: spectrum depth, churn, accounts, ARPA and broadband. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  12. Third-party estimateTrailing free cash flow was $18.40 billion, about 10.4% of the market value, and T-Mobile guides to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion for 2026.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US statistics, October 2026: 1.07 billion shares, P/S 1.92, P/B 3.15, enterprise value $294.21bn, EV/EBITDA 8.56, trailing free cash flow $18.40bn, price down 28.50% in 52 weeks, shares outstanding down 3.93% in a year, return on invested capital 8.93% and a weighted average cost of capital of 4.60% (stockanalysis estimates). — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  13. Moat Explorer calcTrailing free cash flow was $18.40 billion, about 10.4% of the market value, and T-Mobile guides to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion for 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  14. ReportedTrailing free cash flow was $18.40 billion, about 10.4% of the market value, and T-Mobile guides to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion for 2026.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedNearly all of it goes back to owners: the 2026 return program is $18.2 billion, about 10.3% of the market value.
    T-Mobile US Form 8-K, Item 8.01, 23 April 2026 - the 2026 shareholder return program raised to up to $18.2 billion, funded from cash on hand and debt issuance. — April 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  16. Moat Explorer calcNearly all of it goes back to owners: the 2026 return program is $18.2 billion, about 10.3% of the market value.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  17. ReportedThose buybacks also raise Deutsche Telekom's stake, and they are partly funded with debt.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - Deutsche Telekom ownership and voting control at 17 July 2026, the i3 Broadband and GoNetspeed/Greenlight fiber joint ventures, Auction 113, the Grain spectrum sale, litigation and cybersecurity risk. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  18. ReportedThose buybacks also raise Deutsche Telekom's stake, and they are partly funded with debt.
    T-Mobile US Form 8-K, Item 8.01, 23 April 2026 - the 2026 shareholder return program raised to up to $18.2 billion, funded from cash on hand and debt issuance. — April 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  19. Third-party estimateT-Mobile's enterprise value was $294.21 billion, 8.56 times EBITDA, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio was 13.11.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US statistics, October 2026: 1.07 billion shares, P/S 1.92, P/B 3.15, enterprise value $294.21bn, EV/EBITDA 8.56, trailing free cash flow $18.40bn, price down 28.50% in 52 weeks, shares outstanding down 3.93% in a year, return on invested capital 8.93% and a weighted average cost of capital of 4.60% (stockanalysis estimates). — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  20. Third-party estimateT-Mobile's enterprise value was $294.21 billion, 8.56 times EBITDA, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio was 13.11.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US quote page, close of 5 October 2026: $164.64, market value $176.60bn, P/E 17.26, forward P/E 13.11, dividend $4.68 (2.84%), 52-week range $160.81-$231.02, trailing revenue $92.19bn, net income $10.56bn and EPS $9.54, analysts' target $241.84. — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
  21. Third-party estimateAnalysts' average target is $241.84; the simpler test is free cash flow per share, and if 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow came in below $18 billion, the market's pessimism would be justified.
    stockanalysis.com, T-Mobile US quote page, close of 5 October 2026: $164.64, market value $176.60bn, P/E 17.26, forward P/E 13.11, dividend $4.68 (2.84%), 52-week range $160.81-$231.02, trailing revenue $92.19bn, net income $10.56bn and EPS $9.54, analysts' target $241.84. — October 2026 · publ. 5 October 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026