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⚠ The Landlords of 2.5 GHzModerate threat

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — threat to the moat

T-Mobile still leases part of its 2.5 GHz band; lease expense of $5,197 million in 2025 rose more slowly than revenue.

T-Mobile's most valuable band is not entirely its own. The company says it continues to lease spectrum in the 2.5 GHz band "and expect that to be the case for some time"1. Those leases sit in a lease line that also covers towers and stores: lease expense was $5,398 million in 2023, $5,066 million in 2024 and $5,197 million in 20252.

T-Mobile lease expense ($M)5,39820235,06620245,1972025T-Mobile US Form 10-K FY2025, segment expense table
Flat rent so far, on a network that cannot move.

The risk is not that the leases vanish tomorrow. It is that the holders of leased spectrum know exactly how much the network now depends on them. Every lease renewal is a negotiation in which one side cannot walk away.

T-Mobile has been buying where it can. Auction 108 added 7,156 licences in the band for $304 million3, which shows the company prefers to own what it uses when owning is offered.

The leases are a modest share of the business today. Lease expense was 5.9% of revenue in 20254, and most of it is towers and stores rather than spectrum. That is why the risk is a slow one: a renegotiation would raise a cost that is small against revenue but large against the profit of the band it protects.

Lease expense rising faster than revenue would be the sign the landlords are winning. In 2025 lease expense rose 2.6% against revenue growth of 8.5%5; the reverse for two years running would mean the spectrum T-Mobile does not own is being repriced against it.

References
  1. ReportedThe company says it continues to lease spectrum in the 2.5 GHz band "and expect that to be the case for some time".
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - spectrum: holdings by band, licence transactions and the spectrum roll-forward. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThose leases sit in a lease line that also covers towers and stores: lease expense was $5,398 million in 2023, $5,066 million in 2024 and $5,197 million in 2025.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - consolidated financial statements, segment expense table, cash flow and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAuction 108 added 7,156 licences in the band for $304 million, which shows the company prefers to own what it uses when owning is offered.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - spectrum: holdings by band, licence transactions and the spectrum roll-forward. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcLease expense was 5.9% of revenue in 2025, and most of it is towers and stores rather than spectrum.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  5. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 lease expense rose 2.6% against revenue growth of 8.5%; the reverse for two years running would mean the spectrum T-Mobile does not own is being repriced against it.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026