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⚠ Less to Hold Management ToModerate threat

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — threat to the moat

T-Mobile switched its guidance from customer additions to account additions in the year account additions fell 13%.

A company that stops publishing a measure removes one way owners can check it. T-Mobile's 2025 guidance was framed in postpaid net customer additions of "between 5.5 million and 6.0 million"1; its 2026 guidance is in net account additions of 950 thousand to 1.05 million2. The units changed, and the old one cannot be compared with the new.

T-Mobile reporting before and after 2026Postpaid phone net additionsreported to 2025; droppedTotal customers142,388 thousand at end-2025; droppedPrepaid ARPU34.14 dollars in 2025; droppedPostpaid accounts34,700 thousand at June 2026; keptPostpaid ARPA152.91 dollars at June 2026; keptT-Mobile US Form 10-K FY2025 and Q2 2026 earnings release
Three measures gone, two kept.

The accounts measure is not worse in principle, and T-Mobile's competitors report differently too: its own release notes that "AT&T Inc. does not disclose postpaid net account additions"3.

The guidance record so far is good. For 2025 T-Mobile had guided to Core Adjusted EBITDA of "$33.1 billion and $33.6 billion"4 and delivered $33,924 million5; it guided to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $17.3 billion to $18.0 billion and delivered $17,995 million67. Fewer measures matter less when the ones that remain are met.

Guidance itself has moved to cash and EBITDA. For 2026 T-Mobile guides to Core Adjusted EBITDA of $37.1 billion to $37.5 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion8, measures that do not show where customers come from.

One customer measure is still guided. T-Mobile set 2026 postpaid net account additions at "between 900 thousand and 1.0 million" in February9 and raised the range to 950 thousand to 1.05 million in July10. That number, reported each quarter, is the one remaining yardstick of organic customer growth.

But the timing deserves attention. The change came in the year net account additions fell 13%11. If T-Mobile cuts further disclosure, such as account churn or ARPA, the trend would be clear even if the numbers were not.

References
  1. ReportedT-Mobile's 2025 guidance was framed in postpaid net customer additions of "between 5.5 million and 6.0 million"; its 2026 guidance is in net account additions of 950 thousand to 1.05 million.
    T-Mobile US fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2025 guidance including postpaid net customer additions of 5.5 to 6.0 million. — FY2024 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedT-Mobile's 2025 guidance was framed in postpaid net customer additions of "between 5.5 million and 6.0 million"; its 2026 guidance is in net account additions of 950 thousand to 1.05 million.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe accounts measure is not worse in principle, and T-Mobile's competitors report differently too: its own release notes that "AT&T Inc. does not disclose postpaid net account additions".
    T-Mobile US fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - broadband customers, shareholder returns of $14.0 billion in 2025 and the network-award record. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedFor 2025 T-Mobile had guided to Core Adjusted EBITDA of "$33.1 billion and $33.6 billion" and delivered $33,924 million; it guided to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $17.3 billion to $18.0 billion and delivered $17,995 million.
    T-Mobile US fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2025 guidance including postpaid net customer additions of 5.5 to 6.0 million. — FY2024 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFor 2025 T-Mobile had guided to Core Adjusted EBITDA of "$33.1 billion and $33.6 billion" and delivered $33,924 million; it guided to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $17.3 billion to $18.0 billion and delivered $17,995 million.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - consolidated financial statements, segment expense table, cash flow and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedFor 2025 T-Mobile had guided to Core Adjusted EBITDA of "$33.1 billion and $33.6 billion" and delivered $33,924 million; it guided to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $17.3 billion to $18.0 billion and delivered $17,995 million.
    T-Mobile US fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2025 guidance including postpaid net customer additions of 5.5 to 6.0 million. — FY2024 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedFor 2025 T-Mobile had guided to Core Adjusted EBITDA of "$33.1 billion and $33.6 billion" and delivered $33,924 million; it guided to Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $17.3 billion to $18.0 billion and delivered $17,995 million.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - consolidated financial statements, segment expense table, cash flow and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedFor 2026 T-Mobile guides to Core Adjusted EBITDA of $37.1 billion to $37.5 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, measures that do not show where customers come from.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedT-Mobile set 2026 postpaid net account additions at "between 900 thousand and 1.0 million" in February and raised the range to 950 thousand to 1.05 million in July.
    T-Mobile US Capital Markets Day Update, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 11 February 2026 - 2026-2027 targets, broadband 2030 targets, the digital and AI contribution, the network-seeker opportunity and the capital envelope. — February 2026 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedT-Mobile set 2026 postpaid net account additions at "between 900 thousand and 1.0 million" in February and raised the range to 950 thousand to 1.05 million in July.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe change came in the year net account additions fell 13%.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026