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⚠ The FCC Has Little Left to SellModerate threat

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — threat to the moat

T-Mobile warns the FCC may not have enough new spectrum to auction, which protects it from entrants but caps cheap capacity.

Spectrum scarcity cuts T-Mobile's way today and could cut against it tomorrow. The company warns that "the FCC may be unable to make sufficient additional spectrum available for auction"1. That keeps entrants out, but it also limits how much more capacity T-Mobile itself can add as traffic grows.

T-Mobile capital expenditure ($M)12,326202113,97020229,80120238,84020249,9552025T-Mobile US Forms 10-K FY2023 and FY2025, cash flow statement
Capital spending fell after the 5G build peaked.

The recent auctions have been small. Auction 113 in June 2026 sold T-Mobile 102 AWS-3 licences for $278 million2. The 2.5 GHz Auction 108 in 2022 was $304 million3. Neither moved the 394 MHz total much.

Without new spectrum, growth in capacity has to come from technology and from denser networks, both of which cost capital. Capital spending was $9,955 million in 2025 and is guided to about $10.0 billion in 202645.

T-Mobile's own purchases have slowed as the supply thinned. Spectrum acquisitions were $4,822 million in 2024, including the Channel 51 licences, and $1,417 million in 20256. In 2023 it spent $808 million clearing spectrum it already held7, a reminder that new capacity often means paying to move someone else off a band.

The spectrum T-Mobile does hold came with conditions. The Sprint merger carried "extensive 5G network build-out commitments" and obligations to deliver high-speed wireless service to the vast majority of Americans, including in rural areas8. Capacity bought through a merger rather than an auction arrives with a schedule attached, and the schedule has to be met whatever the FCC does next.

The squeeze would show in capital intensity. If capital spending rose above 13% of revenue for two years to carry traffic growth, the absence of new spectrum would have become a cost; it was 11.3% in 20259.

References
  1. ReportedThe company warns that "the FCC may be unable to make sufficient additional spectrum available for auction".
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAuction 113 in June 2026 sold T-Mobile 102 AWS-3 licences for $278 million.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - Deutsche Telekom ownership and voting control at 17 July 2026, the i3 Broadband and GoNetspeed/Greenlight fiber joint ventures, Auction 113, the Grain spectrum sale, litigation and cybersecurity risk. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe 2.5 GHz Auction 108 in 2022 was $304 million.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - spectrum: holdings by band, licence transactions and the spectrum roll-forward. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedCapital spending was $9,955 million in 2025 and is guided to about $10.0 billion in 2026.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - Item 1 business, the single Wireless segment, competition and the revenue lines with their drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedCapital spending was $9,955 million in 2025 and is guided to about $10.0 billion in 2026.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid account additions, ARPA, Core Adjusted EBITDA, shareholder returns and raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSpectrum acquisitions were $4,822 million in 2024, including the Channel 51 licences, and $1,417 million in 2025.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - spectrum: holdings by band, licence transactions and the spectrum roll-forward. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn 2023 it spent $808 million clearing spectrum it already held, a reminder that new capacity often means paying to move someone else off a band.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - spectrum: holdings by band, licence transactions and the spectrum roll-forward. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe Sprint merger carried "extensive 5G network build-out commitments" and obligations to deliver high-speed wireless service to the vast majority of Americans, including in rural areas.
    T-Mobile US, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - Deutsche Telekom ownership and voting control at 17 July 2026, the i3 Broadband and GoNetspeed/Greenlight fiber joint ventures, Auction 113, the Grain spectrum sale, litigation and cybersecurity risk. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcIf capital spending rose above 13% of revenue for two years to carry traffic growth, the absence of new spectrum would have become a cost; it was 11.3% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from T-Mobile US reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue lines: FY2025 shares of total revenues 88,309: postpaid 57,932 = 65.6%, prepaid 10,497 = 11.9%, wholesale and other service 2,877 = 3.3%, equipment 15,972 = 18.1%, other 1,031 = 1.2%. Postpaid share of total revenues 2018 20,862 / 43,310 = 48.2%. Service revenues = postpaid + prepaid + wholesale and other service: 2018 32,441, 2020 50,395, 2022 61,323, 2025 71,306; postpaid share of service revenues 2018 64.3%, 2020 72.0%, 2022 74.9%, 2025 57,932 / 71,306 = 81.2%; Q2 2026 15,853 / 18,983 = 83.5%. Postpaid growth 2025 57,932 / 52,340 - 1 = +10.7%; 2021-2025 (57,932 / 42,562)^(1/4) - 1 = 8.0% a year. Wholesale and other service 2,877 / 5,547 - 1 = -48.1% (2022 to 2025). Prepaid ARPU 34.14 / 37.92 - 1 = -10.0% (2023 to 2025). Equipment revenues less cost of equipment sales 15,972 - 21,277 = -5,305 (2025), 14,263 - 18,882 = -4,619 (2024), 14,138 - 18,533 = -4,395 (2023); loss over service revenues 5,305 / 71,306 = 7.4% (2025), 4,395 / 63,241 = 6.9% (2023); equipment share of revenue 2021 20,727 / 80,118 = 25.9%; cost of equipment sales growth 21,277 / 18,882 - 1 = +12.7%. Revenue growth 2025 88,309 / 81,400 - 1 = +8.5%; operating income growth 18,279 / 18,010 - 1 = +1.5%. Q2 2026 against Q2 2025: total revenues 22,791 / 21,132 - 1 = +7.9%; service revenues 18,983 / 17,438 - 1 = +8.9%; postpaid 15,853 / 14,078 - 1 = +12.6%; prepaid 2,473 / 2,643 - 1 = -6.4%; wholesale and other service 657 / 717 - 1 = -8.4%; equipment 3,524 / 3,439 - 1 = +2.5%; operating income 5,490 / 5,213 - 1 = +5.3%; net income 3,239 / 3,222 - 1 = +0.5%; Core Adjusted EBITDA 9,537 / 8,541 - 1 = +11.7%. T-Mobile postpaid revenue growth +12.6% against AT&T wireless service revenue growth +3.3%. Capital expenditure 9,955 / 13,970 - 1 = -28.7% (2022 to 2025); as a share of revenue 9,955 / 88,309 = 11.3% (2025), 13,970 / 79,571 = 17.6% (2022). Customers and accounts: low- and mid-band spectrum 394 - 357 = 37 MHz added (2021 to 2025); 2.5 GHz share 185 / 394 = 47.0%. Auction 108 cost 304 / Channel 51 purchase 3,500 = 8.7%, less than a tenth. Monthly churn times twelve: 1.58% x 12 = 19.0% a year (about a fifth), 0.86% x 12 = 10.3% (about a tenth). Postpaid accounts 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%; accounts acquired 1,448 (UScellular) + 633 (Metronet and other) + 85 (Lumos) = 2,166; excluding them (34,700 - 2,166) / 31,502 - 1 = +3.3%. Postpaid phone customers 85,594 - 79,013 = 6,581 added in 2025, of which 3,287 from UScellular = 49.9%, about half; organic 6,581 - 3,287 = 3,294. Postpaid account lead over Verizon 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 thousand; Verizon ARPA 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%, a difference of $15.44. ARPA growth 152.91 / 149.87 - 1 = +2.0% (Q2 2026); 143.85 / 139.27 - 1 = +3.3% (2024); 148.97 / 143.85 - 1 = +3.6% (2025); 2018-2025 (148.97 / 128.86)^(1/7) - 1 = 2.1% a year. Customers per employee 142,388,000 / 75,000 = 1,899. 5G broadband to target 15,000 - 8,450 = 6,550 thousand over five years = 1,310 thousand a year; other broadband 9,447 - 8,450 = 997 thousand. Capital and valuation: spectrum licences over total assets 98,032 / 219,237 = 44.7% (2025), 98,178 / 213,553 = 46.0% (30 June 2026). Spectrum step-up in the Sprint year 82,828 - 36,465 = 46,363. Sprint merger-related costs 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 + 1,034 = 11,025, about $11.0 billion; 2020-2022 1,915 + 3,107 + 4,969 = 9,991. Lease expense 5,197 / 5,066 - 1 = +2.6%. Net interest expense 3,774 / 3,335 - 1 = +13.2% (2023 to 2025). Employee expenses 8,553 / 7,041 - 1 = +21.5%. Bad debt expense 1,370 / 898 - 1 = +52.6%. Core Adjusted EBITDA over service revenues 29,116 / 63,241 = 46.0% (2023), 31,771 / 66,178 = 48.0% (2024), 33,924 / 71,306 = 47.6% (2025). Digital and AI target 3,000 / 33,924 = 8.8% of 2025 Core Adjusted EBITDA. Shareholder returns 2025 14,000 / Adjusted Free Cash Flow 17,995 = 77.8%; cumulative returns 54.6bn / market value 176.60bn = 30.9%; 2026 program 18.2bn / 176.60bn = 10.3%; trailing free cash flow 18.40bn / 176.60bn = 10.4%. Deutsche Telekom stake 54.3% x 176.60bn = 95.9bn. Market value 176.60 / 256.15 - 1 = -31.1% (end-2024 to October 2026). Verizon 190.79bn / AT&T 166.51bn = 1.146. Contracted revenue 2,700 + 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 7,038, over revenue 88,309 = 8.0%; wholesale minimums 1,200 + 938 + 2,200 = 4,338. Fiber joint venture commitments 932 + 500 + 4,600 + 700 + 2,000 = 8,732, about $8.7 billion. Further derived figures: ad-technology purchases Vistar 621 + Blis 180 = 801; lease expense over revenue 5,197 / 88,309 = 5.9%; low-band spectrum 600 MHz 43 + 700 MHz 12 + 800 MHz 14 = 69 MHz; total customers added in 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828, of which Mint 3,504 = 35.7%; SG&A 23,470 / 20,818 - 1 = +12.7%; advertising expense 3,668 / 2,515 - 1 = +45.8%; postpaid other customers 30,851 / 22,116 - 1 = +39.5%; postpaid revenues first half 2026 31,482 / 27,672 - 1 = +13.8%; net income Q1 2026 2,504 / 2,953 - 1 = -15.2%; wholesale and other service share of service revenues 6,074 / 58,369 = 10.4% (2021), 2,877 / 71,306 = 4.0% (2025); Q4 2025 total revenues less service revenues 24,334 - 18,702 = 5,632; postpaid RPO over postpaid revenues 2,700 / 57,932 = 4.7%; fiber customers acquired 755 + 97 = 852 thousand, against a 3,000-4,000 thousand target, 2,148-3,148 thousand to go; first half 2026 service revenues 37,814 / 34,363 - 1 = +10.0%, net income 5,743 / 6,175 - 1 = -7.0%, Core Adjusted EBITDA 18,777 / 16,799 - 1 = +11.8%; postpaid phone ARPU 50.37 / 49.35 - 1 = +2.1% (2025); prepaid churn over postpaid phone churn 2.72 / 0.93 = 2.9 times; Verizon total revenues 34,253 / 34,504 - 1 = -0.7%; Lumos 932,000,000 / 97,000 customers = about $9,608 (about 9,600) a customer; postpaid accounts Q3 2025 33,979 - 31,502 = 2,477; equipment revenues first half 2026 7,520 / 7,143 - 1 = +5.3%; three carriers 35 + 34 + 27 = 96%; bad debt and receivable losses 1.8% x 22,791 = about 410 (Q2 2026); prepaid customers 25,943 - 25,410 = 533, of which UScellular 349; depreciation and amortization less capital spending 13,508 - 9,955 = 3,553 (2025); employee expenses per employee 8,553,000,000 / 75,000 = about $114,000 (2025), 7,041,000,000 / 70,000 = about $101,000 (2024); deal values Ka-ena up to 1,350 + UScellular 4,400 + Metronet 4,600 = 10,350, about $10.4 billion; Metronet and other 633 + Lumos 85 = 718; net income over total revenues 2,103 / 24,334 = 8.6% (Q4 2025), 3,222 / 21,132 = 15.2% (Q2 2025); ARPA 152.91 / 148.97 - 1 = +2.6%; lease expense 5,066 / 5,398 - 1 = -6.2% (2024); total customers added 2024 129,528 - 119,700 = 9,828; UScellular merger costs net of tax first half 2026 476 + 146 = 622; return on equity 10,992 / ((59,203 + 61,741) / 2 = 60,472) = 18.2% (2025), 11,339 / ((61,741 + 64,715) / 2 = 63,228) = 17.9% (2024); wholesale and other service share of service revenues 1,981 / 32,441 = 6.1% (2018), 4,782 / 63,241 = 7.6% (2023); wholesale 1,183 + roaming and other service 798 = 1,981 (2018), 1,279 + 1,005 = 2,284 (2019), as recast in the FY2020 10-K; year-end P/E about 20.7 (2025) and 22.6 (2024); customers added 2020 to 2025 142,388 - 102,064 = 40,324 thousand, about 40 million. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,309 - 42,018 + 45,898 = 92,189; net income 10,992 - 6,175 + 5,743 = 10,560. Year-end market value (stockanalysis.com) over net income and total revenues: 2015 31.92bn / 733 = 43.55, / 32,467 = 0.983; 2016 47.39 / 1,460 = 32.46, / 37,490 = 1.264; 2017 52.84 / 4,536 = 11.65, / 40,604 = 1.301; 2018 53.97 / 2,888 = 18.69, / 43,310 = 1.246; 2019 67.09 / 3,468 = 19.35, / 44,998 = 1.491; 2020 167.37 / 3,064 = 54.62, / 68,397 = 2.447; 2021 144.87 / 3,024 = 47.91, / 80,118 = 1.808; 2022 174.18 / 2,590 = 67.25, / 79,571 = 2.189; 2023 185.42 / 8,317 = 22.29, / 78,558 = 2.360; 2024 256.15 / 11,339 = 22.59, / 81,400 = 3.147; 2025 227.10 / 10,992 = 20.66, / 88,309 = 2.572; October 2026 176.60 / 10,560 = 16.72, / 92,189 = 1.916 - capital: spectrum, costs, margins, shareholder returns, debt, commitments and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in T-Mobile US Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and the Investor Factbook, Verizon and AT&T Q2 2026 releases, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026