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⚠ Deductions Grow Faster Than SalesModerate threat

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — threat to the moat

Gilead's rebate and discount bill grew 12% in 2025 against 1% net product sales growth.

In 2025 Gilead's gross-to-net deductions grew 12%1 while net product sales grew from $28,610 million to $28,915 million2, about 1%3. Almost all the growth at gross level was handed back.

Gilead year-on-year growth, 2025 (%)+12.2Gross-to-net deductions+11.4Accrued rebates+1.1Net product salesGilead Form 10-K FY2025
The rebate bill outran sales by about eleven points.

Accrued rebates on the balance sheet tell the same story: $4,337 million at the end of 2025 against $3,892 million a year earlier4, up about 11%5.

Some of this is one-time: the Part D redesign took effect in 20256. But Gilead also expects the Medicare negotiated price for Biktarvy to raise the rebates it owes Medicaid7, so the pressure has more steps to come.

Gross sales are growing well, which shows demand is there. Gross product sales rose from about $46.4 billion in 2024 to $48.9 billion in 20258, about 5%, while net sales grew about 1%9. The patients are buying more; the payers are keeping more of the increase.

Track the gap between gross and net growth. If deductions again grow more than five points faster than net product sales in 2026, the 2025 jump will have been a trend, not a reset.

References
  1. ReportedIn 2025 Gilead's gross-to-net deductions grew 12% while net product sales grew from $28,610 million to $28,915 million, about 1%.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - customers, wholesalers, distribution and gross-to-net deductions. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn 2025 Gilead's gross-to-net deductions grew 12% while net product sales grew from $28,610 million to $28,915 million, about 1%.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - customers, wholesalers, distribution and gross-to-net deductions. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 Gilead's gross-to-net deductions grew 12% while net product sales grew from $28,610 million to $28,915 million, about 1%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Gilead Sciences reported figures ($ millions unless stated). HIV and Biktarvy: HIV share of total revenues 20,752 / 29,443 = 70.5% (2025); of product sales 20,752 / 28,915 = 71.8%; 16,438 / 22,449 = 73.2% (2019); 16,315 / 27,305 = 59.8% (2021); 18,175 / 27,116 = 67.0% (2023); 19,612 / 28,754 = 68.2% (2024). Biktarvy share of total revenues 14,334 / 29,443 = 48.7%; of HIV 14,334 / 20,752 = 69.1%; Biktarvy US 11,467 / 14,334 = 80.0%; Biktarvy growth 2025 14,334 / 13,423 - 1 = +6.8%; 2019-2025 14,334 / 4,738 = 3.0 times, (3.03)^(1/6) - 1 = about 20% a year. Other HIV 20,752 - 14,334 = 6,418; HIV other than Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya and Odefsey 20,752 - 14,334 - 2,758 - 1,498 - 1,167 = 995; Veklury plus Other plus royalties 911 + 799 + 527 = 2,237. Genvoya 1,498 / 3,931 - 1 = -61.9%. HIV growth 2019-2025 20,752 / 16,438 - 1 = +26.2%, about 4.0% a year; 2021 16,315 / 16,938 - 1 = -3.7%; 2023 18,175 / 17,194 - 1 = +5.7%; 2024 19,612 / 18,175 - 1 = +7.9%; 2025 20,752 / 19,612 - 1 = +5.8%, about 6%; H1 2026 10,723 / 9,675 - 1 = +10.8%; Q2 2026 5,693 / 5,088 - 1 = +11.9%. Descovy 2025 2,758 / 2,113 - 1 = +30.5%, about 31%; Q2 2026 967 / 653 - 1 = +48.1%; Descovy over Yeztugo Q2 2026 967 / 232 = 4.2, about four times. Yeztugo Q1 2026 = H1 397 - Q2 232 = 165; Yeztugo over Biktarvy H1 2026 397 / 7,133 = 5.6%, about 6%. US HIV 16,904 / 20,752 = 81.5%, about 81%; US product sales 20,816 / 28,915 = 72.0%; Europe 4,617 / 28,915 = 16.0%. Gilead HIV growth Q2 2026 +11.9% less ViiV +11% = about +1 point. Exclusivity: Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey 2,758 + 1,070 + 1,167 = 4,995, about $5.0bn, / 29,443 = 17.0% of revenue; Descovy + Vemlidy 2,758 + 1,070 = 3,828; Vemlidy share of Liver Disease 1,070 / 3,217 = 33.3%, a third; 2025 sales by primary US patent window: Tecartus 344 + Genvoya 1,498 = 1,842 (2027-2029); Trodelvy 1,397 + Descovy 2,758 + Vemlidy 1,070 + Odefsey 1,167 + sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 1,272 = 7,664 (2028-2033); Biktarvy 14,334 (2036). Hepatitis C 2015 Harvoni 13,864 + Sovaldi 5,276 = 19,140, / product sales 32,151 = 59.5%, about 60%; product sales 2018 21,677 / 32,151 - 1 = -32.6%; Liver Disease 2025 3,217 / 19,140 = 16.8%, about 17%, a sixth. Liver Disease 2019 HCV 2,936 + HBV/HDV 742 = 3,678; 2020 2,064 + 860 = 2,924. Price: gross product sales 2025 28,915 + 19,953 = 48,868, about $48.9bn; 2024 28,610 + 17,776 = 46,386; net product sales growth 28,915 / 28,610 - 1 = +1.1%, about 1%; gross-to-net deductions 19,953 / 17,776 - 1 = +12.2%; accrued rebates 4,337 / 3,892 - 1 = +11.4%, about 11%; rebates and chargebacks over net product sales 17.5bn / 28,915 = 60.5%, about 60% (2025); 15.5bn / 28,610 = 54.2% (2024). H1 2026 capital expenditure = operating cash flow 6,117 - free cash flow 5,859 = 258. Three wholesalers 29% + 24% + 21% = 74% of gross product sales (2025); 29% + 23% + 21% = 73% (2024). Hepatitis C share of revenue 1,272 / 29,443 = 4.3%, about 4%; sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 2025 1,272 / 1,596 - 1 = -20.3%, a fifth; Mavyret 1,317 / 1,311 - 1 = +0.5%. Cash and capital: free cash flow over revenue 9,456 / 29,443 = 32.1%, about 32%; dividends paid over free cash flow 4,003 / 9,456 = 42.3%, about 42%; free cash flow left after dividends and buybacks 9,456 - 4,003 - 1,922 = 3,531. Dividend per share (3.16 / 1.29)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year; increases 1.84 / 1.29 - 1 = +42.6% (2016); 2.72 / 2.52 - 1 = +7.9% (2020); 3.00 / 2.92 - 1 = +2.7% (2023); 3.08 / 3.00 - 1 = +2.7% (2024); 3.16 / 3.08 - 1 = +2.6% (2025); quarterly 0.82 / 0.79 - 1 = +3.8% (2026). Buybacks 2015-2016 10,002 + 11,001 = 21,003, about $21bn; year-end market value 2016 over 2015 94.34 / 145.83 - 1 = -35.3%, about a third. Net debt 31 December 2025 = total debt 24,937 - cash and marketable debt securities 10,605 = 14,332; 30 June 2026 = 26,246 - 3,179 = 23,067; net debt over 2025 free cash flow 23,067 / 9,456 = 2.4 years. Interest over operating income 1,024 / 10,022 = 10.2%, about a tenth (2025); 977 / 1,662 = 58.8%, more than half (2024). Gilead stockholders equity 11,829 / 22,703 - 1 = -47.9%, about 48%; return on equity 2025 8,510 / ((19,330 + 22,703) / 2 = 21,017) = 40.5%. Acquisitions: Trodelvy IPR&D impairments 2.7bn (2022) + 2.4bn + 1.8bn (2024) + 1.75bn (2026) = 8.65bn of 15.8bn recorded = 54.7%; Trodelvy Q1 2026 = H1 859 - Q2 457 = 402; Kite plus Immunomedics 11,155 + 20,600 = 31,755, over $31bn; cell therapy 2025 1,839 / 1,973 - 1 = -6.8%; Arcellx IPR&D 7.0bn / cell therapy 2025 1.839bn = 3.8 years. Acquired IPR&D 2019 5,051 + 2020 5,856 + 2021 939 + 2022 944 + 2023 1,155 + 2024 4,663 + 2025 1,024 + H1 2026 11,290 = 30,922, about $30.9bn; acquired IPR&D 2019-2025 alone = 30,922 - 11,290 = 19,632; Biktarvy 2025 US 11,467 + outside US 1,676 + 1,190 = 14,334, all other revenues 29,443 - 14,334 = 15,109 (shown 15.1); net income 2019-2025 5,386 + 123 + 6,225 + 4,592 + 5,665 + 480 + 8,510 = 30,981, about $31.0bn. Revenue lines: Liver Disease share 3,217 / 29,443 = 10.9%, about 11%; Oncology share 3,236 / 29,443 = 11.0%; Oncology 2020 cell therapy 607 + Trodelvy 49 = 656; Oncology 2025 3,236 / 3,289 - 1 = -1.6%, about 2%; 2019-2025 3,236 / 456 = 7.1 times, about sevenfold. Veklury 2021 5,565 / 27,305 = 20.4%, about a fifth; 2025 911 / 29,443 = 3.1%; product sales 2021-2025 28,915 / 27,008 - 1 = +7.1%; excluding Veklury (28,915 - 911 = 28,004) / (27,008 - 5,565 = 21,443) - 1 = +30.6%, about 31%. Other product sales plus royalty, contract and other revenues: 1,547 + 330 = 1,877 (2019); 1,026 + 334 = 1,360; 1,027 + 297 = 1,324; 946 + 299 = 1,245; 859 + 182 = 1,041; 889 + 144 = 1,033; 799 + 527 = 1,326 (2025). Bands sum to total revenues: 2025 20,752 + 3,217 + 3,236 + 911 + 1,326 = 29,442 against reported 29,443 (rounding); 2019 16,438 + 3,678 + 456 + 0 + 1,877 = 22,449. Non-HIV revenue 29,443 - 20,752 = 8,691, / 29,443 = 29.5%. Valuation and earnings: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 29,443 - H1 2025 13,749 + H1 2026 14,763 = 30,457; net income 8,510 - 3,275 + (-8,475) = -3,240; diluted EPS 6.78 - 2.61 + (-6.82) = -2.65. Year-end market value over net income and revenue: 2015 145.83bn / 18,108 = 8.05, / 32,639 = 4.47; 2016 94.34 / 13,501 = 6.99, / 30,390 = 3.10; 2017 93.58 / 4,628 = 20.2, / 26,107 = 3.58; 2018 80.92 / 5,455 = 14.8, / 22,127 = 3.66; 2019 82.21 / 5,386 = 15.3, / 22,449 = 3.66; 2020 73.03 / 123 = 594, / 24,689 = 2.96; 2021 91.08 / 6,225 = 14.6, / 27,305 = 3.34; 2022 107.68 / 4,592 = 23.4, / 27,281 = 3.95; 2023 100.94 / 5,665 = 17.8, / 27,116 = 3.72; 2024 115.12 / 480 = 240, / 28,754 = 4.00; 2025 152.28 / 8,510 = 17.9, / 29,443 = 5.17; October 2026 179.47bn / 30,457 = 5.89. 2026 product sales guidance midpoints (29,600 + 30,000) / 2 = 29,800 (February); (30,000 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,200 (May); (30,100 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,250 (August). Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint (-0.65 + -0.30) / 2 = -0.475, plus 9.08 of acquired IPR&D and tax per share = 8.61. Additional: dividends paid 3,918 / 3,809 - 1 = +2.9% (2024), 4,003 / 3,918 - 1 = +2.2% (2025); gross product sales 48,868 / 46,386 - 1 = +5.4%, about 5%; Epclusa 1,966 / 3,510 - 1 = -44.0%; US HIV over US product sales 16,904 / 20,816 = 81.2%; European HIV over European product sales 2,392 / 4,617 = 51.8%; analyst target 158.65 / 144.74 - 1 = +9.6%, about 10%; market value 2025 over 2024 152.28 / 115.12 - 1 = +32.3%, a third. AmBisome 509 / 533 - 1 = -4.5%. Biktarvy over HIV: 4,738 / 16,438 = 28.8% (2019); 8,624 / 16,315 = 52.9% (2021); 11,850 / 18,175 = 65.2% (2023). Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey: 1,500 + 488 + 1,655 = 3,643 (2019); 1,700 + 814 + 1,568 = 4,082 (2021); 1,985 + 862 + 1,350 = 4,197 (2023); 2,113 + 959 + 1,288 = 4,360 (2024). Apretude Q1 2026 = H1 260 - Q2 140 = 120 (GBP M). Livdelzi Q1 2026 = H1 300 - Q2 167 = 133 - prices, deductions, customers, geography and exclusivity. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Gilead Sciences Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, stockanalysis.com market values, and the GSK and AbbVie filings cited; each operand is stated in the source line.
  4. ReportedAccrued rebates on the balance sheet tell the same story: $4,337 million at the end of 2025 against $3,892 million a year earlier, up about 11%.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - customers, wholesalers, distribution and gross-to-net deductions. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcAccrued rebates on the balance sheet tell the same story: $4,337 million at the end of 2025 against $3,892 million a year earlier, up about 11%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Gilead Sciences reported figures ($ millions unless stated). HIV and Biktarvy: HIV share of total revenues 20,752 / 29,443 = 70.5% (2025); of product sales 20,752 / 28,915 = 71.8%; 16,438 / 22,449 = 73.2% (2019); 16,315 / 27,305 = 59.8% (2021); 18,175 / 27,116 = 67.0% (2023); 19,612 / 28,754 = 68.2% (2024). Biktarvy share of total revenues 14,334 / 29,443 = 48.7%; of HIV 14,334 / 20,752 = 69.1%; Biktarvy US 11,467 / 14,334 = 80.0%; Biktarvy growth 2025 14,334 / 13,423 - 1 = +6.8%; 2019-2025 14,334 / 4,738 = 3.0 times, (3.03)^(1/6) - 1 = about 20% a year. Other HIV 20,752 - 14,334 = 6,418; HIV other than Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya and Odefsey 20,752 - 14,334 - 2,758 - 1,498 - 1,167 = 995; Veklury plus Other plus royalties 911 + 799 + 527 = 2,237. Genvoya 1,498 / 3,931 - 1 = -61.9%. HIV growth 2019-2025 20,752 / 16,438 - 1 = +26.2%, about 4.0% a year; 2021 16,315 / 16,938 - 1 = -3.7%; 2023 18,175 / 17,194 - 1 = +5.7%; 2024 19,612 / 18,175 - 1 = +7.9%; 2025 20,752 / 19,612 - 1 = +5.8%, about 6%; H1 2026 10,723 / 9,675 - 1 = +10.8%; Q2 2026 5,693 / 5,088 - 1 = +11.9%. Descovy 2025 2,758 / 2,113 - 1 = +30.5%, about 31%; Q2 2026 967 / 653 - 1 = +48.1%; Descovy over Yeztugo Q2 2026 967 / 232 = 4.2, about four times. Yeztugo Q1 2026 = H1 397 - Q2 232 = 165; Yeztugo over Biktarvy H1 2026 397 / 7,133 = 5.6%, about 6%. US HIV 16,904 / 20,752 = 81.5%, about 81%; US product sales 20,816 / 28,915 = 72.0%; Europe 4,617 / 28,915 = 16.0%. Gilead HIV growth Q2 2026 +11.9% less ViiV +11% = about +1 point. Exclusivity: Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey 2,758 + 1,070 + 1,167 = 4,995, about $5.0bn, / 29,443 = 17.0% of revenue; Descovy + Vemlidy 2,758 + 1,070 = 3,828; Vemlidy share of Liver Disease 1,070 / 3,217 = 33.3%, a third; 2025 sales by primary US patent window: Tecartus 344 + Genvoya 1,498 = 1,842 (2027-2029); Trodelvy 1,397 + Descovy 2,758 + Vemlidy 1,070 + Odefsey 1,167 + sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 1,272 = 7,664 (2028-2033); Biktarvy 14,334 (2036). Hepatitis C 2015 Harvoni 13,864 + Sovaldi 5,276 = 19,140, / product sales 32,151 = 59.5%, about 60%; product sales 2018 21,677 / 32,151 - 1 = -32.6%; Liver Disease 2025 3,217 / 19,140 = 16.8%, about 17%, a sixth. Liver Disease 2019 HCV 2,936 + HBV/HDV 742 = 3,678; 2020 2,064 + 860 = 2,924. Price: gross product sales 2025 28,915 + 19,953 = 48,868, about $48.9bn; 2024 28,610 + 17,776 = 46,386; net product sales growth 28,915 / 28,610 - 1 = +1.1%, about 1%; gross-to-net deductions 19,953 / 17,776 - 1 = +12.2%; accrued rebates 4,337 / 3,892 - 1 = +11.4%, about 11%; rebates and chargebacks over net product sales 17.5bn / 28,915 = 60.5%, about 60% (2025); 15.5bn / 28,610 = 54.2% (2024). H1 2026 capital expenditure = operating cash flow 6,117 - free cash flow 5,859 = 258. Three wholesalers 29% + 24% + 21% = 74% of gross product sales (2025); 29% + 23% + 21% = 73% (2024). Hepatitis C share of revenue 1,272 / 29,443 = 4.3%, about 4%; sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 2025 1,272 / 1,596 - 1 = -20.3%, a fifth; Mavyret 1,317 / 1,311 - 1 = +0.5%. Cash and capital: free cash flow over revenue 9,456 / 29,443 = 32.1%, about 32%; dividends paid over free cash flow 4,003 / 9,456 = 42.3%, about 42%; free cash flow left after dividends and buybacks 9,456 - 4,003 - 1,922 = 3,531. Dividend per share (3.16 / 1.29)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year; increases 1.84 / 1.29 - 1 = +42.6% (2016); 2.72 / 2.52 - 1 = +7.9% (2020); 3.00 / 2.92 - 1 = +2.7% (2023); 3.08 / 3.00 - 1 = +2.7% (2024); 3.16 / 3.08 - 1 = +2.6% (2025); quarterly 0.82 / 0.79 - 1 = +3.8% (2026). Buybacks 2015-2016 10,002 + 11,001 = 21,003, about $21bn; year-end market value 2016 over 2015 94.34 / 145.83 - 1 = -35.3%, about a third. Net debt 31 December 2025 = total debt 24,937 - cash and marketable debt securities 10,605 = 14,332; 30 June 2026 = 26,246 - 3,179 = 23,067; net debt over 2025 free cash flow 23,067 / 9,456 = 2.4 years. Interest over operating income 1,024 / 10,022 = 10.2%, about a tenth (2025); 977 / 1,662 = 58.8%, more than half (2024). Gilead stockholders equity 11,829 / 22,703 - 1 = -47.9%, about 48%; return on equity 2025 8,510 / ((19,330 + 22,703) / 2 = 21,017) = 40.5%. Acquisitions: Trodelvy IPR&D impairments 2.7bn (2022) + 2.4bn + 1.8bn (2024) + 1.75bn (2026) = 8.65bn of 15.8bn recorded = 54.7%; Trodelvy Q1 2026 = H1 859 - Q2 457 = 402; Kite plus Immunomedics 11,155 + 20,600 = 31,755, over $31bn; cell therapy 2025 1,839 / 1,973 - 1 = -6.8%; Arcellx IPR&D 7.0bn / cell therapy 2025 1.839bn = 3.8 years. Acquired IPR&D 2019 5,051 + 2020 5,856 + 2021 939 + 2022 944 + 2023 1,155 + 2024 4,663 + 2025 1,024 + H1 2026 11,290 = 30,922, about $30.9bn; acquired IPR&D 2019-2025 alone = 30,922 - 11,290 = 19,632; Biktarvy 2025 US 11,467 + outside US 1,676 + 1,190 = 14,334, all other revenues 29,443 - 14,334 = 15,109 (shown 15.1); net income 2019-2025 5,386 + 123 + 6,225 + 4,592 + 5,665 + 480 + 8,510 = 30,981, about $31.0bn. Revenue lines: Liver Disease share 3,217 / 29,443 = 10.9%, about 11%; Oncology share 3,236 / 29,443 = 11.0%; Oncology 2020 cell therapy 607 + Trodelvy 49 = 656; Oncology 2025 3,236 / 3,289 - 1 = -1.6%, about 2%; 2019-2025 3,236 / 456 = 7.1 times, about sevenfold. Veklury 2021 5,565 / 27,305 = 20.4%, about a fifth; 2025 911 / 29,443 = 3.1%; product sales 2021-2025 28,915 / 27,008 - 1 = +7.1%; excluding Veklury (28,915 - 911 = 28,004) / (27,008 - 5,565 = 21,443) - 1 = +30.6%, about 31%. Other product sales plus royalty, contract and other revenues: 1,547 + 330 = 1,877 (2019); 1,026 + 334 = 1,360; 1,027 + 297 = 1,324; 946 + 299 = 1,245; 859 + 182 = 1,041; 889 + 144 = 1,033; 799 + 527 = 1,326 (2025). Bands sum to total revenues: 2025 20,752 + 3,217 + 3,236 + 911 + 1,326 = 29,442 against reported 29,443 (rounding); 2019 16,438 + 3,678 + 456 + 0 + 1,877 = 22,449. Non-HIV revenue 29,443 - 20,752 = 8,691, / 29,443 = 29.5%. Valuation and earnings: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 29,443 - H1 2025 13,749 + H1 2026 14,763 = 30,457; net income 8,510 - 3,275 + (-8,475) = -3,240; diluted EPS 6.78 - 2.61 + (-6.82) = -2.65. Year-end market value over net income and revenue: 2015 145.83bn / 18,108 = 8.05, / 32,639 = 4.47; 2016 94.34 / 13,501 = 6.99, / 30,390 = 3.10; 2017 93.58 / 4,628 = 20.2, / 26,107 = 3.58; 2018 80.92 / 5,455 = 14.8, / 22,127 = 3.66; 2019 82.21 / 5,386 = 15.3, / 22,449 = 3.66; 2020 73.03 / 123 = 594, / 24,689 = 2.96; 2021 91.08 / 6,225 = 14.6, / 27,305 = 3.34; 2022 107.68 / 4,592 = 23.4, / 27,281 = 3.95; 2023 100.94 / 5,665 = 17.8, / 27,116 = 3.72; 2024 115.12 / 480 = 240, / 28,754 = 4.00; 2025 152.28 / 8,510 = 17.9, / 29,443 = 5.17; October 2026 179.47bn / 30,457 = 5.89. 2026 product sales guidance midpoints (29,600 + 30,000) / 2 = 29,800 (February); (30,000 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,200 (May); (30,100 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,250 (August). Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint (-0.65 + -0.30) / 2 = -0.475, plus 9.08 of acquired IPR&D and tax per share = 8.61. Additional: dividends paid 3,918 / 3,809 - 1 = +2.9% (2024), 4,003 / 3,918 - 1 = +2.2% (2025); gross product sales 48,868 / 46,386 - 1 = +5.4%, about 5%; Epclusa 1,966 / 3,510 - 1 = -44.0%; US HIV over US product sales 16,904 / 20,816 = 81.2%; European HIV over European product sales 2,392 / 4,617 = 51.8%; analyst target 158.65 / 144.74 - 1 = +9.6%, about 10%; market value 2025 over 2024 152.28 / 115.12 - 1 = +32.3%, a third. AmBisome 509 / 533 - 1 = -4.5%. Biktarvy over HIV: 4,738 / 16,438 = 28.8% (2019); 8,624 / 16,315 = 52.9% (2021); 11,850 / 18,175 = 65.2% (2023). Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey: 1,500 + 488 + 1,655 = 3,643 (2019); 1,700 + 814 + 1,568 = 4,082 (2021); 1,985 + 862 + 1,350 = 4,197 (2023); 2,113 + 959 + 1,288 = 4,360 (2024). Apretude Q1 2026 = H1 260 - Q2 140 = 120 (GBP M). Livdelzi Q1 2026 = H1 300 - Q2 167 = 133 - prices, deductions, customers, geography and exclusivity. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Gilead Sciences Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, stockanalysis.com market values, and the GSK and AbbVie filings cited; each operand is stated in the source line.
  6. ReportedSome of this is one-time: the Part D redesign took effect in 2025.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1 business and the revenue-by-product table: products, programs, employees and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedBut Gilead also expects the Medicare negotiated price for Biktarvy to raise the rebates it owes Medicaid, so the pressure has more steps to come.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcGross product sales rose from about $46.4 billion in 2024 to $48.9 billion in 2025, about 5%, while net sales grew about 1%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Gilead Sciences reported figures ($ millions unless stated). HIV and Biktarvy: HIV share of total revenues 20,752 / 29,443 = 70.5% (2025); of product sales 20,752 / 28,915 = 71.8%; 16,438 / 22,449 = 73.2% (2019); 16,315 / 27,305 = 59.8% (2021); 18,175 / 27,116 = 67.0% (2023); 19,612 / 28,754 = 68.2% (2024). Biktarvy share of total revenues 14,334 / 29,443 = 48.7%; of HIV 14,334 / 20,752 = 69.1%; Biktarvy US 11,467 / 14,334 = 80.0%; Biktarvy growth 2025 14,334 / 13,423 - 1 = +6.8%; 2019-2025 14,334 / 4,738 = 3.0 times, (3.03)^(1/6) - 1 = about 20% a year. Other HIV 20,752 - 14,334 = 6,418; HIV other than Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya and Odefsey 20,752 - 14,334 - 2,758 - 1,498 - 1,167 = 995; Veklury plus Other plus royalties 911 + 799 + 527 = 2,237. Genvoya 1,498 / 3,931 - 1 = -61.9%. HIV growth 2019-2025 20,752 / 16,438 - 1 = +26.2%, about 4.0% a year; 2021 16,315 / 16,938 - 1 = -3.7%; 2023 18,175 / 17,194 - 1 = +5.7%; 2024 19,612 / 18,175 - 1 = +7.9%; 2025 20,752 / 19,612 - 1 = +5.8%, about 6%; H1 2026 10,723 / 9,675 - 1 = +10.8%; Q2 2026 5,693 / 5,088 - 1 = +11.9%. Descovy 2025 2,758 / 2,113 - 1 = +30.5%, about 31%; Q2 2026 967 / 653 - 1 = +48.1%; Descovy over Yeztugo Q2 2026 967 / 232 = 4.2, about four times. Yeztugo Q1 2026 = H1 397 - Q2 232 = 165; Yeztugo over Biktarvy H1 2026 397 / 7,133 = 5.6%, about 6%. US HIV 16,904 / 20,752 = 81.5%, about 81%; US product sales 20,816 / 28,915 = 72.0%; Europe 4,617 / 28,915 = 16.0%. Gilead HIV growth Q2 2026 +11.9% less ViiV +11% = about +1 point. Exclusivity: Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey 2,758 + 1,070 + 1,167 = 4,995, about $5.0bn, / 29,443 = 17.0% of revenue; Descovy + Vemlidy 2,758 + 1,070 = 3,828; Vemlidy share of Liver Disease 1,070 / 3,217 = 33.3%, a third; 2025 sales by primary US patent window: Tecartus 344 + Genvoya 1,498 = 1,842 (2027-2029); Trodelvy 1,397 + Descovy 2,758 + Vemlidy 1,070 + Odefsey 1,167 + sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 1,272 = 7,664 (2028-2033); Biktarvy 14,334 (2036). Hepatitis C 2015 Harvoni 13,864 + Sovaldi 5,276 = 19,140, / product sales 32,151 = 59.5%, about 60%; product sales 2018 21,677 / 32,151 - 1 = -32.6%; Liver Disease 2025 3,217 / 19,140 = 16.8%, about 17%, a sixth. Liver Disease 2019 HCV 2,936 + HBV/HDV 742 = 3,678; 2020 2,064 + 860 = 2,924. Price: gross product sales 2025 28,915 + 19,953 = 48,868, about $48.9bn; 2024 28,610 + 17,776 = 46,386; net product sales growth 28,915 / 28,610 - 1 = +1.1%, about 1%; gross-to-net deductions 19,953 / 17,776 - 1 = +12.2%; accrued rebates 4,337 / 3,892 - 1 = +11.4%, about 11%; rebates and chargebacks over net product sales 17.5bn / 28,915 = 60.5%, about 60% (2025); 15.5bn / 28,610 = 54.2% (2024). H1 2026 capital expenditure = operating cash flow 6,117 - free cash flow 5,859 = 258. Three wholesalers 29% + 24% + 21% = 74% of gross product sales (2025); 29% + 23% + 21% = 73% (2024). Hepatitis C share of revenue 1,272 / 29,443 = 4.3%, about 4%; sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 2025 1,272 / 1,596 - 1 = -20.3%, a fifth; Mavyret 1,317 / 1,311 - 1 = +0.5%. Cash and capital: free cash flow over revenue 9,456 / 29,443 = 32.1%, about 32%; dividends paid over free cash flow 4,003 / 9,456 = 42.3%, about 42%; free cash flow left after dividends and buybacks 9,456 - 4,003 - 1,922 = 3,531. Dividend per share (3.16 / 1.29)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year; increases 1.84 / 1.29 - 1 = +42.6% (2016); 2.72 / 2.52 - 1 = +7.9% (2020); 3.00 / 2.92 - 1 = +2.7% (2023); 3.08 / 3.00 - 1 = +2.7% (2024); 3.16 / 3.08 - 1 = +2.6% (2025); quarterly 0.82 / 0.79 - 1 = +3.8% (2026). Buybacks 2015-2016 10,002 + 11,001 = 21,003, about $21bn; year-end market value 2016 over 2015 94.34 / 145.83 - 1 = -35.3%, about a third. Net debt 31 December 2025 = total debt 24,937 - cash and marketable debt securities 10,605 = 14,332; 30 June 2026 = 26,246 - 3,179 = 23,067; net debt over 2025 free cash flow 23,067 / 9,456 = 2.4 years. Interest over operating income 1,024 / 10,022 = 10.2%, about a tenth (2025); 977 / 1,662 = 58.8%, more than half (2024). Gilead stockholders equity 11,829 / 22,703 - 1 = -47.9%, about 48%; return on equity 2025 8,510 / ((19,330 + 22,703) / 2 = 21,017) = 40.5%. Acquisitions: Trodelvy IPR&D impairments 2.7bn (2022) + 2.4bn + 1.8bn (2024) + 1.75bn (2026) = 8.65bn of 15.8bn recorded = 54.7%; Trodelvy Q1 2026 = H1 859 - Q2 457 = 402; Kite plus Immunomedics 11,155 + 20,600 = 31,755, over $31bn; cell therapy 2025 1,839 / 1,973 - 1 = -6.8%; Arcellx IPR&D 7.0bn / cell therapy 2025 1.839bn = 3.8 years. Acquired IPR&D 2019 5,051 + 2020 5,856 + 2021 939 + 2022 944 + 2023 1,155 + 2024 4,663 + 2025 1,024 + H1 2026 11,290 = 30,922, about $30.9bn; acquired IPR&D 2019-2025 alone = 30,922 - 11,290 = 19,632; Biktarvy 2025 US 11,467 + outside US 1,676 + 1,190 = 14,334, all other revenues 29,443 - 14,334 = 15,109 (shown 15.1); net income 2019-2025 5,386 + 123 + 6,225 + 4,592 + 5,665 + 480 + 8,510 = 30,981, about $31.0bn. Revenue lines: Liver Disease share 3,217 / 29,443 = 10.9%, about 11%; Oncology share 3,236 / 29,443 = 11.0%; Oncology 2020 cell therapy 607 + Trodelvy 49 = 656; Oncology 2025 3,236 / 3,289 - 1 = -1.6%, about 2%; 2019-2025 3,236 / 456 = 7.1 times, about sevenfold. Veklury 2021 5,565 / 27,305 = 20.4%, about a fifth; 2025 911 / 29,443 = 3.1%; product sales 2021-2025 28,915 / 27,008 - 1 = +7.1%; excluding Veklury (28,915 - 911 = 28,004) / (27,008 - 5,565 = 21,443) - 1 = +30.6%, about 31%. Other product sales plus royalty, contract and other revenues: 1,547 + 330 = 1,877 (2019); 1,026 + 334 = 1,360; 1,027 + 297 = 1,324; 946 + 299 = 1,245; 859 + 182 = 1,041; 889 + 144 = 1,033; 799 + 527 = 1,326 (2025). Bands sum to total revenues: 2025 20,752 + 3,217 + 3,236 + 911 + 1,326 = 29,442 against reported 29,443 (rounding); 2019 16,438 + 3,678 + 456 + 0 + 1,877 = 22,449. Non-HIV revenue 29,443 - 20,752 = 8,691, / 29,443 = 29.5%. Valuation and earnings: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 29,443 - H1 2025 13,749 + H1 2026 14,763 = 30,457; net income 8,510 - 3,275 + (-8,475) = -3,240; diluted EPS 6.78 - 2.61 + (-6.82) = -2.65. Year-end market value over net income and revenue: 2015 145.83bn / 18,108 = 8.05, / 32,639 = 4.47; 2016 94.34 / 13,501 = 6.99, / 30,390 = 3.10; 2017 93.58 / 4,628 = 20.2, / 26,107 = 3.58; 2018 80.92 / 5,455 = 14.8, / 22,127 = 3.66; 2019 82.21 / 5,386 = 15.3, / 22,449 = 3.66; 2020 73.03 / 123 = 594, / 24,689 = 2.96; 2021 91.08 / 6,225 = 14.6, / 27,305 = 3.34; 2022 107.68 / 4,592 = 23.4, / 27,281 = 3.95; 2023 100.94 / 5,665 = 17.8, / 27,116 = 3.72; 2024 115.12 / 480 = 240, / 28,754 = 4.00; 2025 152.28 / 8,510 = 17.9, / 29,443 = 5.17; October 2026 179.47bn / 30,457 = 5.89. 2026 product sales guidance midpoints (29,600 + 30,000) / 2 = 29,800 (February); (30,000 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,200 (May); (30,100 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,250 (August). Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint (-0.65 + -0.30) / 2 = -0.475, plus 9.08 of acquired IPR&D and tax per share = 8.61. Additional: dividends paid 3,918 / 3,809 - 1 = +2.9% (2024), 4,003 / 3,918 - 1 = +2.2% (2025); gross product sales 48,868 / 46,386 - 1 = +5.4%, about 5%; Epclusa 1,966 / 3,510 - 1 = -44.0%; US HIV over US product sales 16,904 / 20,816 = 81.2%; European HIV over European product sales 2,392 / 4,617 = 51.8%; analyst target 158.65 / 144.74 - 1 = +9.6%, about 10%; market value 2025 over 2024 152.28 / 115.12 - 1 = +32.3%, a third. AmBisome 509 / 533 - 1 = -4.5%. Biktarvy over HIV: 4,738 / 16,438 = 28.8% (2019); 8,624 / 16,315 = 52.9% (2021); 11,850 / 18,175 = 65.2% (2023). Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey: 1,500 + 488 + 1,655 = 3,643 (2019); 1,700 + 814 + 1,568 = 4,082 (2021); 1,985 + 862 + 1,350 = 4,197 (2023); 2,113 + 959 + 1,288 = 4,360 (2024). Apretude Q1 2026 = H1 260 - Q2 140 = 120 (GBP M). Livdelzi Q1 2026 = H1 300 - Q2 167 = 133 - prices, deductions, customers, geography and exclusivity. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Gilead Sciences Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, stockanalysis.com market values, and the GSK and AbbVie filings cited; each operand is stated in the source line.
  9. Moat Explorer calcGross product sales rose from about $46.4 billion in 2024 to $48.9 billion in 2025, about 5%, while net sales grew about 1%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Gilead Sciences reported figures ($ millions unless stated). HIV and Biktarvy: HIV share of total revenues 20,752 / 29,443 = 70.5% (2025); of product sales 20,752 / 28,915 = 71.8%; 16,438 / 22,449 = 73.2% (2019); 16,315 / 27,305 = 59.8% (2021); 18,175 / 27,116 = 67.0% (2023); 19,612 / 28,754 = 68.2% (2024). Biktarvy share of total revenues 14,334 / 29,443 = 48.7%; of HIV 14,334 / 20,752 = 69.1%; Biktarvy US 11,467 / 14,334 = 80.0%; Biktarvy growth 2025 14,334 / 13,423 - 1 = +6.8%; 2019-2025 14,334 / 4,738 = 3.0 times, (3.03)^(1/6) - 1 = about 20% a year. Other HIV 20,752 - 14,334 = 6,418; HIV other than Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya and Odefsey 20,752 - 14,334 - 2,758 - 1,498 - 1,167 = 995; Veklury plus Other plus royalties 911 + 799 + 527 = 2,237. Genvoya 1,498 / 3,931 - 1 = -61.9%. HIV growth 2019-2025 20,752 / 16,438 - 1 = +26.2%, about 4.0% a year; 2021 16,315 / 16,938 - 1 = -3.7%; 2023 18,175 / 17,194 - 1 = +5.7%; 2024 19,612 / 18,175 - 1 = +7.9%; 2025 20,752 / 19,612 - 1 = +5.8%, about 6%; H1 2026 10,723 / 9,675 - 1 = +10.8%; Q2 2026 5,693 / 5,088 - 1 = +11.9%. Descovy 2025 2,758 / 2,113 - 1 = +30.5%, about 31%; Q2 2026 967 / 653 - 1 = +48.1%; Descovy over Yeztugo Q2 2026 967 / 232 = 4.2, about four times. Yeztugo Q1 2026 = H1 397 - Q2 232 = 165; Yeztugo over Biktarvy H1 2026 397 / 7,133 = 5.6%, about 6%. US HIV 16,904 / 20,752 = 81.5%, about 81%; US product sales 20,816 / 28,915 = 72.0%; Europe 4,617 / 28,915 = 16.0%. Gilead HIV growth Q2 2026 +11.9% less ViiV +11% = about +1 point. Exclusivity: Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey 2,758 + 1,070 + 1,167 = 4,995, about $5.0bn, / 29,443 = 17.0% of revenue; Descovy + Vemlidy 2,758 + 1,070 = 3,828; Vemlidy share of Liver Disease 1,070 / 3,217 = 33.3%, a third; 2025 sales by primary US patent window: Tecartus 344 + Genvoya 1,498 = 1,842 (2027-2029); Trodelvy 1,397 + Descovy 2,758 + Vemlidy 1,070 + Odefsey 1,167 + sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 1,272 = 7,664 (2028-2033); Biktarvy 14,334 (2036). Hepatitis C 2015 Harvoni 13,864 + Sovaldi 5,276 = 19,140, / product sales 32,151 = 59.5%, about 60%; product sales 2018 21,677 / 32,151 - 1 = -32.6%; Liver Disease 2025 3,217 / 19,140 = 16.8%, about 17%, a sixth. Liver Disease 2019 HCV 2,936 + HBV/HDV 742 = 3,678; 2020 2,064 + 860 = 2,924. Price: gross product sales 2025 28,915 + 19,953 = 48,868, about $48.9bn; 2024 28,610 + 17,776 = 46,386; net product sales growth 28,915 / 28,610 - 1 = +1.1%, about 1%; gross-to-net deductions 19,953 / 17,776 - 1 = +12.2%; accrued rebates 4,337 / 3,892 - 1 = +11.4%, about 11%; rebates and chargebacks over net product sales 17.5bn / 28,915 = 60.5%, about 60% (2025); 15.5bn / 28,610 = 54.2% (2024). H1 2026 capital expenditure = operating cash flow 6,117 - free cash flow 5,859 = 258. Three wholesalers 29% + 24% + 21% = 74% of gross product sales (2025); 29% + 23% + 21% = 73% (2024). Hepatitis C share of revenue 1,272 / 29,443 = 4.3%, about 4%; sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 2025 1,272 / 1,596 - 1 = -20.3%, a fifth; Mavyret 1,317 / 1,311 - 1 = +0.5%. Cash and capital: free cash flow over revenue 9,456 / 29,443 = 32.1%, about 32%; dividends paid over free cash flow 4,003 / 9,456 = 42.3%, about 42%; free cash flow left after dividends and buybacks 9,456 - 4,003 - 1,922 = 3,531. Dividend per share (3.16 / 1.29)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year; increases 1.84 / 1.29 - 1 = +42.6% (2016); 2.72 / 2.52 - 1 = +7.9% (2020); 3.00 / 2.92 - 1 = +2.7% (2023); 3.08 / 3.00 - 1 = +2.7% (2024); 3.16 / 3.08 - 1 = +2.6% (2025); quarterly 0.82 / 0.79 - 1 = +3.8% (2026). Buybacks 2015-2016 10,002 + 11,001 = 21,003, about $21bn; year-end market value 2016 over 2015 94.34 / 145.83 - 1 = -35.3%, about a third. Net debt 31 December 2025 = total debt 24,937 - cash and marketable debt securities 10,605 = 14,332; 30 June 2026 = 26,246 - 3,179 = 23,067; net debt over 2025 free cash flow 23,067 / 9,456 = 2.4 years. Interest over operating income 1,024 / 10,022 = 10.2%, about a tenth (2025); 977 / 1,662 = 58.8%, more than half (2024). Gilead stockholders equity 11,829 / 22,703 - 1 = -47.9%, about 48%; return on equity 2025 8,510 / ((19,330 + 22,703) / 2 = 21,017) = 40.5%. Acquisitions: Trodelvy IPR&D impairments 2.7bn (2022) + 2.4bn + 1.8bn (2024) + 1.75bn (2026) = 8.65bn of 15.8bn recorded = 54.7%; Trodelvy Q1 2026 = H1 859 - Q2 457 = 402; Kite plus Immunomedics 11,155 + 20,600 = 31,755, over $31bn; cell therapy 2025 1,839 / 1,973 - 1 = -6.8%; Arcellx IPR&D 7.0bn / cell therapy 2025 1.839bn = 3.8 years. Acquired IPR&D 2019 5,051 + 2020 5,856 + 2021 939 + 2022 944 + 2023 1,155 + 2024 4,663 + 2025 1,024 + H1 2026 11,290 = 30,922, about $30.9bn; acquired IPR&D 2019-2025 alone = 30,922 - 11,290 = 19,632; Biktarvy 2025 US 11,467 + outside US 1,676 + 1,190 = 14,334, all other revenues 29,443 - 14,334 = 15,109 (shown 15.1); net income 2019-2025 5,386 + 123 + 6,225 + 4,592 + 5,665 + 480 + 8,510 = 30,981, about $31.0bn. Revenue lines: Liver Disease share 3,217 / 29,443 = 10.9%, about 11%; Oncology share 3,236 / 29,443 = 11.0%; Oncology 2020 cell therapy 607 + Trodelvy 49 = 656; Oncology 2025 3,236 / 3,289 - 1 = -1.6%, about 2%; 2019-2025 3,236 / 456 = 7.1 times, about sevenfold. Veklury 2021 5,565 / 27,305 = 20.4%, about a fifth; 2025 911 / 29,443 = 3.1%; product sales 2021-2025 28,915 / 27,008 - 1 = +7.1%; excluding Veklury (28,915 - 911 = 28,004) / (27,008 - 5,565 = 21,443) - 1 = +30.6%, about 31%. Other product sales plus royalty, contract and other revenues: 1,547 + 330 = 1,877 (2019); 1,026 + 334 = 1,360; 1,027 + 297 = 1,324; 946 + 299 = 1,245; 859 + 182 = 1,041; 889 + 144 = 1,033; 799 + 527 = 1,326 (2025). Bands sum to total revenues: 2025 20,752 + 3,217 + 3,236 + 911 + 1,326 = 29,442 against reported 29,443 (rounding); 2019 16,438 + 3,678 + 456 + 0 + 1,877 = 22,449. Non-HIV revenue 29,443 - 20,752 = 8,691, / 29,443 = 29.5%. Valuation and earnings: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 29,443 - H1 2025 13,749 + H1 2026 14,763 = 30,457; net income 8,510 - 3,275 + (-8,475) = -3,240; diluted EPS 6.78 - 2.61 + (-6.82) = -2.65. Year-end market value over net income and revenue: 2015 145.83bn / 18,108 = 8.05, / 32,639 = 4.47; 2016 94.34 / 13,501 = 6.99, / 30,390 = 3.10; 2017 93.58 / 4,628 = 20.2, / 26,107 = 3.58; 2018 80.92 / 5,455 = 14.8, / 22,127 = 3.66; 2019 82.21 / 5,386 = 15.3, / 22,449 = 3.66; 2020 73.03 / 123 = 594, / 24,689 = 2.96; 2021 91.08 / 6,225 = 14.6, / 27,305 = 3.34; 2022 107.68 / 4,592 = 23.4, / 27,281 = 3.95; 2023 100.94 / 5,665 = 17.8, / 27,116 = 3.72; 2024 115.12 / 480 = 240, / 28,754 = 4.00; 2025 152.28 / 8,510 = 17.9, / 29,443 = 5.17; October 2026 179.47bn / 30,457 = 5.89. 2026 product sales guidance midpoints (29,600 + 30,000) / 2 = 29,800 (February); (30,000 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,200 (May); (30,100 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,250 (August). Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint (-0.65 + -0.30) / 2 = -0.475, plus 9.08 of acquired IPR&D and tax per share = 8.61. Additional: dividends paid 3,918 / 3,809 - 1 = +2.9% (2024), 4,003 / 3,918 - 1 = +2.2% (2025); gross product sales 48,868 / 46,386 - 1 = +5.4%, about 5%; Epclusa 1,966 / 3,510 - 1 = -44.0%; US HIV over US product sales 16,904 / 20,816 = 81.2%; European HIV over European product sales 2,392 / 4,617 = 51.8%; analyst target 158.65 / 144.74 - 1 = +9.6%, about 10%; market value 2025 over 2024 152.28 / 115.12 - 1 = +32.3%, a third. AmBisome 509 / 533 - 1 = -4.5%. Biktarvy over HIV: 4,738 / 16,438 = 28.8% (2019); 8,624 / 16,315 = 52.9% (2021); 11,850 / 18,175 = 65.2% (2023). Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey: 1,500 + 488 + 1,655 = 3,643 (2019); 1,700 + 814 + 1,568 = 4,082 (2021); 1,985 + 862 + 1,350 = 4,197 (2023); 2,113 + 959 + 1,288 = 4,360 (2024). Apretude Q1 2026 = H1 260 - Q2 140 = 120 (GBP M). Livdelzi Q1 2026 = H1 300 - Q2 167 = 133 - prices, deductions, customers, geography and exclusivity. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Gilead Sciences Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, stockanalysis.com market values, and the GSK and AbbVie filings cited; each operand is stated in the source line.
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026