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⚠ A Price Cut Before the Patent EndsHigh threat
Gilead Sciences (GILD) — threat to the moat
Biktarvy's patent runs to 2036, but its Medicare price is negotiated from 2028: the IRA shortens pricing exclusivity by eight years.
The patent table measures one kind of exclusivity and the Inflation Reduction Act cuts across it. Biktarvy's US patent protection runs to 2036 under settlement1, but its Medicare price will be negotiated from 20282. For eight years Gilead will hold a patent and still not set the Medicare price.
The 10-K describes the timetable of the law: negotiation for 10 drugs in 2026, adding 15 drugs in 2027 and 2028, and 20 drugs from 20293. More Gilead products could be selected; the company says so itself4.
That changes what the exclusivity dates are worth. A protected product with a negotiated price earns less than a protected product with a free price, and the gap grows as more drugs are added.
Gilead has said more products may follow. The 10-K states that "more of our products may be selected in the future"5. Descovy, the second-largest product at $2,758 million6, is the obvious candidate if Medicare spending on it grows with prevention.
The root page on the Medicare decision gives the detail. For this facet, the test is the number of Gilead products selected: one, Biktarvy, as of January 20267. A second selection before 2030 would mean the patent schedule overstates Gilead's pricing protection across the portfolio.
- ReportedBiktarvy's US patent protection runs to 2036 under settlement, but its Medicare price will be negotiated from 2028.Gilead Sciences Form 8-K of 6 October 2025 - settlement agreements with Lupin, Cipla and Laurus Labs; no generic entry of Biktarvy expected in the United States before 1 April 2036. — October 2025 · publ. 6 October 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedBiktarvy's US patent protection runs to 2036 under settlement, but its Medicare price will be negotiated from 2028.Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe 10-K describes the timetable of the law: negotiation for 10 drugs in 2026, adding 15 drugs in 2027 and 2028, and 20 drugs from 2029.Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedMore Gilead products could be selected; the company says so itself.Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe 10-K states that "more of our products may be selected in the future".Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedDescovy, the second-largest product at $2,758 million, is the obvious candidate if Medicare spending on it grows with prevention.Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedFor this facet, the test is the number of Gilead products selected: one, Biktarvy, as of January 2026.Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1 business and the revenue-by-product table: products, programs, employees and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗