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Buybacks That Hold the Count FlatThin moat

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — moat facet

Gilead's buybacks now merely hold its share count near 1,255 million, after $21 billion spent at the 2015-2016 peak.

Gilead's buybacks are modest and mainly offset dilution. It repurchased $1,000 million of stock in 2023, $1,150 million in 2024 and $1,922 million in 202512, and diluted shares were 1,258 million, 1,255 million and 1,255 million3. The count did not fall.

Gilead share repurchases ($bn)10.0201511.020161.020171.720190.520211.020231.220241.92025SEC XBRL PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock; Gilead Form 10-K FY2025
The big buybacks came at the top.

It was not always this way. In 2015 and 2016, at the peak of hepatitis C, Gilead spent $10,002 million and $11,001 million on buybacks4, at prices that look high in hindsight: the year-end market value was $145.83 billion in 2015 and $94.34 billion a year later5. The company spent $21 billion buying shares that then lost a third of their value6.

The lesson seems to have been learned. Recent buybacks have been smaller and steadier; in the second quarter of 2026 the average price paid was $131.837, against $144.74 now8. A $6.0 billion programme was authorised in the third quarter of 20259.

Buybacks at this scale are housekeeping rather than strategy. The strategy is the dividend and the acquisitions.

The programme is not short of authority. Gilead's board authorised $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2020 and a further $6.0 billion in the third quarter of 202510. In the first half of 2026 it repurchased $774 million of stock11, while borrowing to pay for acquisitions.

The judge of the programme is the share count. If diluted shares rise above 1,270 million, the buybacks will no longer be covering dilution.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Diluted shares 1,255M in 2024 and 2025.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Diluted shares outstanding, full year
1,255M (2025), from 1,258M in 2023

Whether buybacks cover dilution; above 1,270M would mean they no longer do.

Source: Gilead Sciences Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Buying at the Peak Again
Gilead spent about $21 billion on buybacks at its 2015-2016 peak; its shares are again above that level.
References
  1. ReportedIt repurchased $1,000 million of stock in 2023, $1,150 million in 2024 and $1,922 million in 2025, and diluted shares were 1,258 million, 1,255 million and 1,255 million.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Gilead Sciences (CIK 882095): revenue 32,639 (2015), 30,390, 26,107, 22,127 (2018); net income attributable 18,108 (2015), 13,501, 4,628, 5,455 (2018); diluted EPS 11.91 (2015), 9.94, 3.51, 4.17; dividends declared per share 1.29 (2015), 1.84, 2.08, 2.28, 2.52, 2.72, 2.84, 2.92; buybacks 10,002 (2015) and 11,001 (2016); acquired IPR&D 939 (2021) and 944 (2022); $ millions. — FY2014-FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt repurchased $1,000 million of stock in 2023, $1,150 million in 2024 and $1,922 million in 2025, and diluted shares were 1,258 million, 1,255 million and 1,255 million.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - financial statements, MD&A and notes: income, margins, impairments, acquired IPR&D, cash flow, capital returns and debt. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt repurchased $1,000 million of stock in 2023, $1,150 million in 2024 and $1,922 million in 2025, and diluted shares were 1,258 million, 1,255 million and 1,255 million.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - financial statements, MD&A and notes: income, margins, impairments, acquired IPR&D, cash flow, capital returns and debt. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn 2015 and 2016, at the peak of hepatitis C, Gilead spent $10,002 million and $11,001 million on buybacks, at prices that look high in hindsight: the year-end market value was $145.83 billion in 2015 and $94.34 billion a year later.
    SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for Gilead Sciences (CIK 882095): revenue 32,639 (2015), 30,390, 26,107, 22,127 (2018); net income attributable 18,108 (2015), 13,501, 4,628, 5,455 (2018); diluted EPS 11.91 (2015), 9.94, 3.51, 4.17; dividends declared per share 1.29 (2015), 1.84, 2.08, 2.28, 2.52, 2.72, 2.84, 2.92; buybacks 10,002 (2015) and 11,001 (2016); acquired IPR&D 939 (2021) and 944 (2022); $ millions. — FY2014-FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateIn 2015 and 2016, at the peak of hepatitis C, Gilead spent $10,002 million and $11,001 million on buybacks, at prices that look high in hindsight: the year-end market value was $145.83 billion in 2015 and $94.34 billion a year later.
    stockanalysis.com, Gilead Sciences market-cap history: year-end values 145.83 (2015), 94.34, 93.58, 80.92, 82.21, 73.03, 91.08, 107.68, 100.94, 115.12, 152.28 (2025), $ billions; up 30.13% in one year. — 2015-2026 · publ. 2 October 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThe company spent $21 billion buying shares that then lost a third of their value.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Gilead Sciences reported figures ($ millions unless stated). HIV and Biktarvy: HIV share of total revenues 20,752 / 29,443 = 70.5% (2025); of product sales 20,752 / 28,915 = 71.8%; 16,438 / 22,449 = 73.2% (2019); 16,315 / 27,305 = 59.8% (2021); 18,175 / 27,116 = 67.0% (2023); 19,612 / 28,754 = 68.2% (2024). Biktarvy share of total revenues 14,334 / 29,443 = 48.7%; of HIV 14,334 / 20,752 = 69.1%; Biktarvy US 11,467 / 14,334 = 80.0%; Biktarvy growth 2025 14,334 / 13,423 - 1 = +6.8%; 2019-2025 14,334 / 4,738 = 3.0 times, (3.03)^(1/6) - 1 = about 20% a year. Other HIV 20,752 - 14,334 = 6,418; HIV other than Biktarvy, Descovy, Genvoya and Odefsey 20,752 - 14,334 - 2,758 - 1,498 - 1,167 = 995; Veklury plus Other plus royalties 911 + 799 + 527 = 2,237. Genvoya 1,498 / 3,931 - 1 = -61.9%. HIV growth 2019-2025 20,752 / 16,438 - 1 = +26.2%, about 4.0% a year; 2021 16,315 / 16,938 - 1 = -3.7%; 2023 18,175 / 17,194 - 1 = +5.7%; 2024 19,612 / 18,175 - 1 = +7.9%; 2025 20,752 / 19,612 - 1 = +5.8%, about 6%; H1 2026 10,723 / 9,675 - 1 = +10.8%; Q2 2026 5,693 / 5,088 - 1 = +11.9%. Descovy 2025 2,758 / 2,113 - 1 = +30.5%, about 31%; Q2 2026 967 / 653 - 1 = +48.1%; Descovy over Yeztugo Q2 2026 967 / 232 = 4.2, about four times. Yeztugo Q1 2026 = H1 397 - Q2 232 = 165; Yeztugo over Biktarvy H1 2026 397 / 7,133 = 5.6%, about 6%. US HIV 16,904 / 20,752 = 81.5%, about 81%; US product sales 20,816 / 28,915 = 72.0%; Europe 4,617 / 28,915 = 16.0%. Gilead HIV growth Q2 2026 +11.9% less ViiV +11% = about +1 point. Exclusivity: Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey 2,758 + 1,070 + 1,167 = 4,995, about $5.0bn, / 29,443 = 17.0% of revenue; Descovy + Vemlidy 2,758 + 1,070 = 3,828; Vemlidy share of Liver Disease 1,070 / 3,217 = 33.3%, a third; 2025 sales by primary US patent window: Tecartus 344 + Genvoya 1,498 = 1,842 (2027-2029); Trodelvy 1,397 + Descovy 2,758 + Vemlidy 1,070 + Odefsey 1,167 + sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 1,272 = 7,664 (2028-2033); Biktarvy 14,334 (2036). Hepatitis C 2015 Harvoni 13,864 + Sovaldi 5,276 = 19,140, / product sales 32,151 = 59.5%, about 60%; product sales 2018 21,677 / 32,151 - 1 = -32.6%; Liver Disease 2025 3,217 / 19,140 = 16.8%, about 17%, a sixth. Liver Disease 2019 HCV 2,936 + HBV/HDV 742 = 3,678; 2020 2,064 + 860 = 2,924. Price: gross product sales 2025 28,915 + 19,953 = 48,868, about $48.9bn; 2024 28,610 + 17,776 = 46,386; net product sales growth 28,915 / 28,610 - 1 = +1.1%, about 1%; gross-to-net deductions 19,953 / 17,776 - 1 = +12.2%; accrued rebates 4,337 / 3,892 - 1 = +11.4%, about 11%; rebates and chargebacks over net product sales 17.5bn / 28,915 = 60.5%, about 60% (2025); 15.5bn / 28,610 = 54.2% (2024). H1 2026 capital expenditure = operating cash flow 6,117 - free cash flow 5,859 = 258. Three wholesalers 29% + 24% + 21% = 74% of gross product sales (2025); 29% + 23% + 21% = 73% (2024). Hepatitis C share of revenue 1,272 / 29,443 = 4.3%, about 4%; sofosbuvir/velpatasvir 2025 1,272 / 1,596 - 1 = -20.3%, a fifth; Mavyret 1,317 / 1,311 - 1 = +0.5%. Cash and capital: free cash flow over revenue 9,456 / 29,443 = 32.1%, about 32%; dividends paid over free cash flow 4,003 / 9,456 = 42.3%, about 42%; free cash flow left after dividends and buybacks 9,456 - 4,003 - 1,922 = 3,531. Dividend per share (3.16 / 1.29)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year; increases 1.84 / 1.29 - 1 = +42.6% (2016); 2.72 / 2.52 - 1 = +7.9% (2020); 3.00 / 2.92 - 1 = +2.7% (2023); 3.08 / 3.00 - 1 = +2.7% (2024); 3.16 / 3.08 - 1 = +2.6% (2025); quarterly 0.82 / 0.79 - 1 = +3.8% (2026). Buybacks 2015-2016 10,002 + 11,001 = 21,003, about $21bn; year-end market value 2016 over 2015 94.34 / 145.83 - 1 = -35.3%, about a third. Net debt 31 December 2025 = total debt 24,937 - cash and marketable debt securities 10,605 = 14,332; 30 June 2026 = 26,246 - 3,179 = 23,067; net debt over 2025 free cash flow 23,067 / 9,456 = 2.4 years. Interest over operating income 1,024 / 10,022 = 10.2%, about a tenth (2025); 977 / 1,662 = 58.8%, more than half (2024). Gilead stockholders equity 11,829 / 22,703 - 1 = -47.9%, about 48%; return on equity 2025 8,510 / ((19,330 + 22,703) / 2 = 21,017) = 40.5%. Acquisitions: Trodelvy IPR&D impairments 2.7bn (2022) + 2.4bn + 1.8bn (2024) + 1.75bn (2026) = 8.65bn of 15.8bn recorded = 54.7%; Trodelvy Q1 2026 = H1 859 - Q2 457 = 402; Kite plus Immunomedics 11,155 + 20,600 = 31,755, over $31bn; cell therapy 2025 1,839 / 1,973 - 1 = -6.8%; Arcellx IPR&D 7.0bn / cell therapy 2025 1.839bn = 3.8 years. Acquired IPR&D 2019 5,051 + 2020 5,856 + 2021 939 + 2022 944 + 2023 1,155 + 2024 4,663 + 2025 1,024 + H1 2026 11,290 = 30,922, about $30.9bn; acquired IPR&D 2019-2025 alone = 30,922 - 11,290 = 19,632; Biktarvy 2025 US 11,467 + outside US 1,676 + 1,190 = 14,334, all other revenues 29,443 - 14,334 = 15,109 (shown 15.1); net income 2019-2025 5,386 + 123 + 6,225 + 4,592 + 5,665 + 480 + 8,510 = 30,981, about $31.0bn. Revenue lines: Liver Disease share 3,217 / 29,443 = 10.9%, about 11%; Oncology share 3,236 / 29,443 = 11.0%; Oncology 2020 cell therapy 607 + Trodelvy 49 = 656; Oncology 2025 3,236 / 3,289 - 1 = -1.6%, about 2%; 2019-2025 3,236 / 456 = 7.1 times, about sevenfold. Veklury 2021 5,565 / 27,305 = 20.4%, about a fifth; 2025 911 / 29,443 = 3.1%; product sales 2021-2025 28,915 / 27,008 - 1 = +7.1%; excluding Veklury (28,915 - 911 = 28,004) / (27,008 - 5,565 = 21,443) - 1 = +30.6%, about 31%. Other product sales plus royalty, contract and other revenues: 1,547 + 330 = 1,877 (2019); 1,026 + 334 = 1,360; 1,027 + 297 = 1,324; 946 + 299 = 1,245; 859 + 182 = 1,041; 889 + 144 = 1,033; 799 + 527 = 1,326 (2025). Bands sum to total revenues: 2025 20,752 + 3,217 + 3,236 + 911 + 1,326 = 29,442 against reported 29,443 (rounding); 2019 16,438 + 3,678 + 456 + 0 + 1,877 = 22,449. Non-HIV revenue 29,443 - 20,752 = 8,691, / 29,443 = 29.5%. Valuation and earnings: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 29,443 - H1 2025 13,749 + H1 2026 14,763 = 30,457; net income 8,510 - 3,275 + (-8,475) = -3,240; diluted EPS 6.78 - 2.61 + (-6.82) = -2.65. Year-end market value over net income and revenue: 2015 145.83bn / 18,108 = 8.05, / 32,639 = 4.47; 2016 94.34 / 13,501 = 6.99, / 30,390 = 3.10; 2017 93.58 / 4,628 = 20.2, / 26,107 = 3.58; 2018 80.92 / 5,455 = 14.8, / 22,127 = 3.66; 2019 82.21 / 5,386 = 15.3, / 22,449 = 3.66; 2020 73.03 / 123 = 594, / 24,689 = 2.96; 2021 91.08 / 6,225 = 14.6, / 27,305 = 3.34; 2022 107.68 / 4,592 = 23.4, / 27,281 = 3.95; 2023 100.94 / 5,665 = 17.8, / 27,116 = 3.72; 2024 115.12 / 480 = 240, / 28,754 = 4.00; 2025 152.28 / 8,510 = 17.9, / 29,443 = 5.17; October 2026 179.47bn / 30,457 = 5.89. 2026 product sales guidance midpoints (29,600 + 30,000) / 2 = 29,800 (February); (30,000 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,200 (May); (30,100 + 30,400) / 2 = 30,250 (August). Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint (-0.65 + -0.30) / 2 = -0.475, plus 9.08 of acquired IPR&D and tax per share = 8.61. Additional: dividends paid 3,918 / 3,809 - 1 = +2.9% (2024), 4,003 / 3,918 - 1 = +2.2% (2025); gross product sales 48,868 / 46,386 - 1 = +5.4%, about 5%; Epclusa 1,966 / 3,510 - 1 = -44.0%; US HIV over US product sales 16,904 / 20,816 = 81.2%; European HIV over European product sales 2,392 / 4,617 = 51.8%; analyst target 158.65 / 144.74 - 1 = +9.6%, about 10%; market value 2025 over 2024 152.28 / 115.12 - 1 = +32.3%, a third. AmBisome 509 / 533 - 1 = -4.5%. Biktarvy over HIV: 4,738 / 16,438 = 28.8% (2019); 8,624 / 16,315 = 52.9% (2021); 11,850 / 18,175 = 65.2% (2023). Descovy + Vemlidy + Odefsey: 1,500 + 488 + 1,655 = 3,643 (2019); 1,700 + 814 + 1,568 = 4,082 (2021); 1,985 + 862 + 1,350 = 4,197 (2023); 2,113 + 959 + 1,288 = 4,360 (2024). Apretude Q1 2026 = H1 260 - Q2 140 = 120 (GBP M). Livdelzi Q1 2026 = H1 300 - Q2 167 = 133 - revenue lines, earnings and guidance. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Gilead Sciences Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, stockanalysis.com market values, and the GSK and AbbVie filings cited; each operand is stated in the source line.
  7. ReportedRecent buybacks have been smaller and steadier; in the second quarter of 2026 the average price paid was $131.83, against $144.74 now.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - acquired IPR&D for Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro, the $1.75 billion Trodelvy impairment, debt, receivables and the December 2025 agreement with the US administration. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. Third-party estimateRecent buybacks have been smaller and steadier; in the second quarter of 2026 the average price paid was $131.83, against $144.74 now.
    stockanalysis.com, Gilead Sciences quote page, close of 2 October 2026: $144.74, dividend $3.28 (2.27%), 52-week range $108.46-$157.29, beta 0.33, 27 analysts with an average target of $158.65. — October 2026 · publ. 2 October 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedA $6.0 billion programme was authorised in the third quarter of 2025.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1 business and the revenue-by-product table: products, programs, employees and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedGilead's board authorised $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2020 and a further $6.0 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1 business and the revenue-by-product table: products, programs, employees and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 it repurchased $774 million of stock, while borrowing to pay for acquisitions.
    Gilead Sciences second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by product, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, pipeline updates and 2026 guidance - income statement, EPS, cash flow, balance sheet and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026