AI-generated analysis, not investment advice. The articles are written by AI, edited, and checked against company filings — but the judgements are opinions and the figures go stale. How this is made · Terms

⚠ 2027 in EuropeLow threat

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — threat to the moat

Three Gilead HIV and hepatitis B products lose primary European patents in 2027, the first test of how quickly patients move to generics.

Next year three tenofovir alafenamide products lose primary European patent protection1. They are small in Europe compared with the United States, but they are the first live test since Gilead's major HIV switch of what generics do to its newer regimens.

Gilead product sales by region, 2025 ($bn)20.8United States4.6Europe3.5Rest of worldGilead Form 10-K FY2025, product sales by geography
Europe is small, but it goes first.

Gilead reports Europe as a region, so the effect will be measurable. European product sales were $4,617 million in 20252. HIV in Europe was $2,392 million3.

The risk is less the lost revenue than the lesson. If generic tenofovir alafenamide in Europe takes share quickly, it will say Gilead's regimens are more replaceable than their US growth suggests.

Europe is also where Gilead's newer products launch with the least pricing power. Lenacapavir for PrEP was authorised there as Yeytuo4, and Europe's patent date for lenacapavir is the same as America's, 20375. Europe will therefore show both the first generic losses and the first pricing of Gilead's replacement products.

Track European HIV sales in 2028. A fall of more than 10% would mean 2031 in the United States will hurt more than the company's present tone implies.

References
  1. ReportedNext year three tenofovir alafenamide products lose primary European patent protection.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - patents, regulatory exclusivity, expiry dates and settlements with generic manufacturers. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedEuropean product sales were $4,617 million in 2025.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - revenue by product, product group and region (Note 2) and the MD&A discussion of product sales. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedHIV in Europe was $2,392 million.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1 business and the revenue-by-product table: products, programs, employees and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedLenacapavir for PrEP was authorised there as Yeytuo, and Europe's patent date for lenacapavir is the same as America's, 2037.
    Gilead Sciences third-quarter 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the Biktarvy settlements, the PEPFAR lenacapavir partnership and the chief executive's statement on exclusivity. — Q3 2025 · publ. 30 October 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedLenacapavir for PrEP was authorised there as Yeytuo, and Europe's patent date for lenacapavir is the same as America's, 2037.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026