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⚠ A Patent Is Not a PrescriptionModerate threat

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — threat to the moat

Lenacapavir's 2037 patents protect a product family that sold $397 million in its first half-year and faces ViiV in prevention.

Patents to 20371 are worth exactly what the product sells, and lenacapavir's products are early. Yeztugo's sales were $232 million in the second quarter of 20262. Prevention with a twice-yearly shot has to be prescribed, covered by insurers and accepted by healthy people.

ViiV Apretude sales (GBP M)120Q1 2026140Q2 2026GSK Q2 2026 results announcement; Q1 is H1 (260) less Q2
The rival long-acting prevention product is growing too.

The competition is already there. ViiV's long-acting prevention injectable, Apretude, sold £140 million in the same quarter, up 39%, in what GSK called "a competitive US long-acting prevention market"3.

And the once-weekly products are not yet approved4. Any delay or safety issue would shorten the years in which lenacapavir can be built into a franchise before 2037.

Insurers and public programmes decide how fast a new PrEP product spreads, and they compare it with cheaper daily options. GSK describes the US long-acting prevention market as competitive, with Apretude's first-half sales at £260 million5. Yeztugo reached $397 million in the same half6, a promising start that still has to show it can grow without large price concessions.

The test is the run-rate. If Yeztugo's quarterly sales are not above $500 million by the end of 2027, the 2037 patents will be protecting a modest product.

References
  1. ReportedPatents to 2037 are worth exactly what the product sells, and lenacapavir's products are early.
    Gilead Sciences Form 10-K for 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and pricing regulation: the IRA, Medicare negotiation, Medicaid, the ACA and tariffs. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedYeztugo's sales were $232 million in the second quarter of 2026.
    Gilead Sciences second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by product, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, pipeline updates and 2026 guidance - revenue by product and product group and the drivers of each. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedViiV's long-acting prevention injectable, Apretude, sold £140 million in the same quarter, up 39%, in what GSK called "a competitive US long-acting prevention market".
    GSK second-quarter 2026 results announcement - ViiV Healthcare HIV sales of GBP 2,078 million (+11%), Dovato GBP 749 million, Cabenuva GBP 453 million (+33%), Apretude GBP 140 million (+39%); long-acting injectables 35% of US HIV turnover. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAnd the once-weekly products are not yet approved.
    Gilead Sciences second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by product, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, pipeline updates and 2026 guidance - pipeline, regulatory and business development updates. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedGSK describes the US long-acting prevention market as competitive, with Apretude's first-half sales at £260 million.
    GSK second-quarter 2026 results announcement - ViiV Healthcare HIV sales of GBP 2,078 million (+11%), Dovato GBP 749 million, Cabenuva GBP 453 million (+33%), Apretude GBP 140 million (+39%); long-acting injectables 35% of US HIV turnover. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedYeztugo reached $397 million in the same half, a promising start that still has to show it can grow without large price concessions.
    Gilead Sciences second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue by product, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, pipeline updates and 2026 guidance - revenue by product and product group and the drivers of each. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026