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⚠ If Distillation Spreads, the Contest Becomes a Balance SheetHigh threat

Anthropic (ANT) — threat to the moat

Anthropic own risk factors say that if distillation spreads, competition will be decided by access to compute rather than by model capability, which is the contest it says it cannot match.

The sharpest competitive admission in the filing is about Anthropic's own moat. If distillation becomes widespread, it says, "competition could increasingly depend on access to large-scale compute rather than on model development capability"1. That is a company stating that the thing it is best at could stop deciding the outcome.

Compute and infrastructure spend ($M)43320232,52220247,32620258,945H1 2026S-1 statements of operations; $19,226M of compute on $21,298M of cumulative revenue
Nineteen billion spent on compute to earn twenty-one billion.

A contest decided by compute access is a contest it has already said it cannot win. The same risk factors say Anthropic competes for compute with some of the "largest and most well-capitalized technology companies, many of which develop their own competitive AI models", which "can outbid us for scarce compute, secure priority allocations from chip manufacturers and CSPs, and make long-term capital commitments that we cannot match"2. It also competes for power and sites with those firms, with "cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large-scale electricity consumers"3.

The scale of the asymmetry is visible in the filing's own commitments. About $587 billion of promises4 is enormous against $19,708 million of trailing revenue5, and small against the capital budgets of the companies supplying it.

Distillation is not hypothetical. The filing describes open-weight competitors that "seek to prioritize cost efficiency over maximum intelligence" and "may capture a portion of the market for certain use cases, which could exert pricing pressure on our offerings"6.

What would show this happening is price. Anthropic has cut cost per task about 40% a generation by choice7; a cut forced by competition, showing up as compute and infrastructure expense rising as a share of revenue while revenue growth slows, would mean the contest has moved to the balance sheet.

References
  1. ReportedIf distillation becomes widespread, it says, "competition could increasingly depend on access to large-scale compute rather than on model development capability".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - Item 1A risk factors: compute, power, metrics and the absence of a public market. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe same risk factors say Anthropic competes for compute with some of the "largest and most well-capitalized technology companies, many of which develop their own competitive AI models", which "can outbid us for scarce compute, secure priority allocations from chip manufacturers and CSPs, and make long-term capital commitments that we cannot match".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - Item 1A risk factors: compute, power, metrics and the absence of a public market. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt also competes for power and sites with those firms, with "cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large-scale electricity consumers".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - Item 1A risk factors: compute, power, metrics and the absence of a public market. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcAbout $587 billion of promises is enormous against $19,708 million of trailing revenue, and small against the capital budgets of the companies supplying it.
    Moat Explorer calculation from the figures in Anthropic's Form S-1. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026, computed as FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026: revenue 4,585 - 1,163 + 16,286 = 19,708; net loss (41,965) - (12,969) + (80,748) = (109,744); operating loss (8,060) - (2,135) + (693) = (6,618); net loss per share (23.04) - (7.25) + (39.88) = (55.67); United States revenue 3,362 - 820 + 11,763 = 14,305 and International 1,223 - 343 + 4,523 = 5,403. Market value 3,041,435 thousand shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (853,394 preferred + 2,157,398 Class A + 30,643 Class N) multiplied by the $589.0095 Series H-1 issue price = $1,791,434M. Multiples: 1,791,434 / 19,708 = 90.9 times trailing revenue; 1,791,434 / (16,286 x 2) = 55.0 times annualised first-half revenue; 1,791,434 / 4,585 = 390.7 times FY2025 revenue. Revenue growth 386 / 41 - 1 = +841% (2024), 4,585 / 386 - 1 = +1,088% (2025), 16,286 / 1,163 - 1 = +1,300% (H1 2026 against H1 2025). United States share of revenue 34 / 41 = 82.9% (2023), 263 / 386 = 68.1% (2024), 3,362 / 4,585 = 73.3% (2025), 11,763 / 16,286 = 72.2% (H1 2026), 14,305 / 19,708 = 72.6% (trailing twelve months). H1 2026 non-operating charge (80,748) - (693) = (80,055). First-half operating expenses against revenue: compute 8,945 / 16,286 = 55%, personnel 3,152 / 16,286 = 19%, sales and marketing 3,168 / 16,286 = 19%. Cash and short-term investments plus undrawn committed notes 131,651 + 77,000 = 208,651. The Bartz settlement against 2025 revenue 1,500 / 4,585 = 32.7%. Compute and infrastructure spend 2023-H1 2026 433 + 2,522 + 7,326 + 8,945 = 19,226 against cumulative revenue 41 + 386 + 4,585 + 16,286 = 21,298. From the Note 8 functional expense table, implied gross margin (revenue less cost of revenue, over revenue): (41 - 26) / 41 = 36.6% in 2023, (386 - 752) / 386 = -94.8% in 2024, (4,585 - 2,773) / 4,585 = 39.5% in 2025, (1,163 - 1,019) / 1,163 = 12.4% in H1 2025 and (16,286 - 2,380) / 16,286 = 85.4% in H1 2026; research and development over cost of revenue 9,741 / 2,380 = 4.09 times. Compute commitments at 30 June 2026: non-cancelable purchase commitments of 265.6 plus leases not yet commenced of 321.4 = 587.0 billion dollars, against 54.559 + 50.2 = 104.8 billion at 31 December 2025, a rise of 5.6 times in six months; 587.0 / 19.708 = 29.8 times trailing revenue and 587.0 / 131.651 = 4.5 times cash and short-term investments. The named counterparty commitments 161.2 + 120.5 + 114.5 + 110.0 + 44.6 + 44.9 + 20.0 = 615.7 billion. Valuation: the reported 965 billion dollar Series H post-money over trailing revenue 965.0 / 19.708 = 49.0 times, and over annualised first-half revenue 965.0 / 32.572 = 29.6 times. Share counts at 30 June 2026 multiplied by the Series H-1 issue price, 3,041,435 thousand x 589.0095 = 1,791,434 thousand dollars, which does not reproduce the reported figure. Headcount about 940 to about 5,300 is a rise of about 5.6 times while revenue rose about 1,200% over the same period. Commitments against the contracted book: 587,000 / 10,800 = 54.4 times. Net loss against operating loss over the trailing twelve months: 109,744 / 6,618 = 16.6 times. The three commitments owed to companies that also sell models against Anthropic, Google plus Amazon plus Microsoft, 114,500 + 110,000 + 44,900 = 269,400, which is about 44% of the 615,700 named and therefore not most of it. Cash plus undrawn committed notes against total commitments, 208,651 / 587,000 = 36%, about a third. International share of revenue: 7 / 41 = 17.1% in 2023, 123 / 386 = 31.9% in 2024, 1,223 / 4,585 = 26.7% in 2025, 343 / 1,163 = 29.5% in H1 2025, 4,523 / 16,286 = 27.8% in H1 2026 and 5,403 / 19,708 = 27.4% over the trailing twelve months. Revenue from customers above $100,000 as a share of first-half revenue, 12,000 / 16,286 = 74%, and revenue per such customer 12,000 / 6,000 = $2.0m for the half against 870 / 600 = $1.45m a year earlier. — 2023 to H1 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Anthropic's Form S-1 of 26 October 2026; each operand is shown above.
  5. Moat Explorer calcAbout $587 billion of promises is enormous against $19,708 million of trailing revenue, and small against the capital budgets of the companies supplying it.
    Moat Explorer calculation from the figures in Anthropic's Form S-1. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026, computed as FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026: revenue 4,585 - 1,163 + 16,286 = 19,708; net loss (41,965) - (12,969) + (80,748) = (109,744); operating loss (8,060) - (2,135) + (693) = (6,618); net loss per share (23.04) - (7.25) + (39.88) = (55.67); United States revenue 3,362 - 820 + 11,763 = 14,305 and International 1,223 - 343 + 4,523 = 5,403. Market value 3,041,435 thousand shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (853,394 preferred + 2,157,398 Class A + 30,643 Class N) multiplied by the $589.0095 Series H-1 issue price = $1,791,434M. Multiples: 1,791,434 / 19,708 = 90.9 times trailing revenue; 1,791,434 / (16,286 x 2) = 55.0 times annualised first-half revenue; 1,791,434 / 4,585 = 390.7 times FY2025 revenue. Revenue growth 386 / 41 - 1 = +841% (2024), 4,585 / 386 - 1 = +1,088% (2025), 16,286 / 1,163 - 1 = +1,300% (H1 2026 against H1 2025). United States share of revenue 34 / 41 = 82.9% (2023), 263 / 386 = 68.1% (2024), 3,362 / 4,585 = 73.3% (2025), 11,763 / 16,286 = 72.2% (H1 2026), 14,305 / 19,708 = 72.6% (trailing twelve months). H1 2026 non-operating charge (80,748) - (693) = (80,055). First-half operating expenses against revenue: compute 8,945 / 16,286 = 55%, personnel 3,152 / 16,286 = 19%, sales and marketing 3,168 / 16,286 = 19%. Cash and short-term investments plus undrawn committed notes 131,651 + 77,000 = 208,651. The Bartz settlement against 2025 revenue 1,500 / 4,585 = 32.7%. Compute and infrastructure spend 2023-H1 2026 433 + 2,522 + 7,326 + 8,945 = 19,226 against cumulative revenue 41 + 386 + 4,585 + 16,286 = 21,298. From the Note 8 functional expense table, implied gross margin (revenue less cost of revenue, over revenue): (41 - 26) / 41 = 36.6% in 2023, (386 - 752) / 386 = -94.8% in 2024, (4,585 - 2,773) / 4,585 = 39.5% in 2025, (1,163 - 1,019) / 1,163 = 12.4% in H1 2025 and (16,286 - 2,380) / 16,286 = 85.4% in H1 2026; research and development over cost of revenue 9,741 / 2,380 = 4.09 times. Compute commitments at 30 June 2026: non-cancelable purchase commitments of 265.6 plus leases not yet commenced of 321.4 = 587.0 billion dollars, against 54.559 + 50.2 = 104.8 billion at 31 December 2025, a rise of 5.6 times in six months; 587.0 / 19.708 = 29.8 times trailing revenue and 587.0 / 131.651 = 4.5 times cash and short-term investments. The named counterparty commitments 161.2 + 120.5 + 114.5 + 110.0 + 44.6 + 44.9 + 20.0 = 615.7 billion. Valuation: the reported 965 billion dollar Series H post-money over trailing revenue 965.0 / 19.708 = 49.0 times, and over annualised first-half revenue 965.0 / 32.572 = 29.6 times. Share counts at 30 June 2026 multiplied by the Series H-1 issue price, 3,041,435 thousand x 589.0095 = 1,791,434 thousand dollars, which does not reproduce the reported figure. Headcount about 940 to about 5,300 is a rise of about 5.6 times while revenue rose about 1,200% over the same period. Commitments against the contracted book: 587,000 / 10,800 = 54.4 times. Net loss against operating loss over the trailing twelve months: 109,744 / 6,618 = 16.6 times. The three commitments owed to companies that also sell models against Anthropic, Google plus Amazon plus Microsoft, 114,500 + 110,000 + 44,900 = 269,400, which is about 44% of the 615,700 named and therefore not most of it. Cash plus undrawn committed notes against total commitments, 208,651 / 587,000 = 36%, about a third. International share of revenue: 7 / 41 = 17.1% in 2023, 123 / 386 = 31.9% in 2024, 1,223 / 4,585 = 26.7% in 2025, 343 / 1,163 = 29.5% in H1 2025, 4,523 / 16,286 = 27.8% in H1 2026 and 5,403 / 19,708 = 27.4% over the trailing twelve months. Revenue from customers above $100,000 as a share of first-half revenue, 12,000 / 16,286 = 74%, and revenue per such customer 12,000 / 6,000 = $2.0m for the half against 870 / 600 = $1.45m a year earlier. — 2023 to H1 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Anthropic's Form S-1 of 26 October 2026; each operand is shown above.
  6. ReportedThe filing describes open-weight competitors that "seek to prioritize cost efficiency over maximum intelligence" and "may capture a portion of the market for certain use cases, which could exert pricing pressure on our offerings".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the business section: the mission, the core advantages, the enterprise strategy and the partner programmes. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAnthropic has cut cost per task about 40% a generation by choice; a cut forced by competition, showing up as compute and infrastructure expense rising as a share of revenue while revenue growth slows, would mean the contest has moved to the balance sheet.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the operating metrics and their definitions and limitations. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 26, 2026