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✦ The Commitments Running to 2045Thin moat

Anthropic (ANT) — the future bets

Anthropic has contracted for compute on terms of up to twenty years, so the cheapest capacity it will ever own is capacity it agreed to buy before it knew what would run on it.

The largest financial undertaking in this company is also its longest. Anthropic has contracted for compute on terms "ranging from one to 20 years"1, with leases not yet commenced starting between 2026 and 20282 and "substantially all of the remainder is expected to be incurred between 2031 and 2045"3. How large it is, and who it is owed to, is taken apart on the root threat page; what belongs here is the length of it.

Compute and infrastructure expense ($M)43320232,52220247,3262025Anthropic Form S-1; the first half of 2026 alone was $8,945M
More in six months than in any full year before.

A nineteen-year horizon is a utility's horizon, not a software company's. It means Anthropic has contracted for electricity, buildings and silicon on terms that will still be running when the models now being trained are many generations obsolete, and it has done so having never earned a profit: the operating loss over the trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 was $6,618M4.

The spending these commitments formalise is already the company's largest cost. Compute and infrastructure was $433M in 2023, $2,522M in 2024 and $7,326M in 20255, then $8,945M in the first half of 2026 alone — more in six months than in any full prior year6. Most of it is not serving customers: the functional note puts cost of revenue at $2,380M in the half against research and development of $9,741M7.

Buying capacity this far ahead is a bet rather than an overhang only if capability keeps improving, because capacity contracted in 2026 for delivery in the 2030s must be paid for whether or not the architecture it was built around is still the right one. The filing leaves one way out and it is an expensive one: "The Company may elect to satisfy a portion of its obligations by issuing convertible promissory notes"8.

The running cost is the honest thing to track. Compute and infrastructure took 55% of first-half revenue9, against cumulative compute spending of $19,226M since 2023 on cumulative revenue of $21,298M10. If that share stops falling while the leases commence, the capacity was sized to a forecast rather than to a customer base.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Terms of one to 20 years; leases commencing between 2026 and 2028.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Compute and infrastructure expense, first half
$8,945M (H1 2026), 55% of revenue

The running cost the 2045 commitments formalise; a share that stops falling would mean the capacity was bought against a forecast.

How it's calculated: Compute and infrastructure expense of $8,945M divided by revenue of $16,286M for the first half of 2026, from Anthropic Form S-1.
Source: Moat Explorer calculation ↗
References
  1. ReportedAnthropic has contracted for compute on terms "ranging from one to 20 years", with leases not yet commenced starting between 2026 and 2028 and "substantially all of the remainder is expected to be incurred between 2031 and 2045".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the consolidated balance sheets and the notes on cash, convertible notes, preferred stock, leases and commitments. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAnthropic has contracted for compute on terms "ranging from one to 20 years", with leases not yet commenced starting between 2026 and 2028 and "substantially all of the remainder is expected to be incurred between 2031 and 2045".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the consolidated balance sheets and the notes on cash, convertible notes, preferred stock, leases and commitments. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAnthropic has contracted for compute on terms "ranging from one to 20 years", with leases not yet commenced starting between 2026 and 2028 and "substantially all of the remainder is expected to be incurred between 2031 and 2045".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the business section: the mission, the core advantages, the enterprise strategy and the partner programmes. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcIt means Anthropic has contracted for electricity, buildings and silicon on terms that will still be running when the models now being trained are many generations obsolete, and it has done so having never earned a profit: the operating loss over the trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 was $6,618M.
    Moat Explorer calculation from the figures in Anthropic's Form S-1. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026, computed as FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026: revenue 4,585 - 1,163 + 16,286 = 19,708; net loss (41,965) - (12,969) + (80,748) = (109,744); operating loss (8,060) - (2,135) + (693) = (6,618); net loss per share (23.04) - (7.25) + (39.88) = (55.67); United States revenue 3,362 - 820 + 11,763 = 14,305 and International 1,223 - 343 + 4,523 = 5,403. Market value 3,041,435 thousand shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (853,394 preferred + 2,157,398 Class A + 30,643 Class N) multiplied by the $589.0095 Series H-1 issue price = $1,791,434M. Multiples: 1,791,434 / 19,708 = 90.9 times trailing revenue; 1,791,434 / (16,286 x 2) = 55.0 times annualised first-half revenue; 1,791,434 / 4,585 = 390.7 times FY2025 revenue. Revenue growth 386 / 41 - 1 = +841% (2024), 4,585 / 386 - 1 = +1,088% (2025), 16,286 / 1,163 - 1 = +1,300% (H1 2026 against H1 2025). United States share of revenue 34 / 41 = 82.9% (2023), 263 / 386 = 68.1% (2024), 3,362 / 4,585 = 73.3% (2025), 11,763 / 16,286 = 72.2% (H1 2026), 14,305 / 19,708 = 72.6% (trailing twelve months). H1 2026 non-operating charge (80,748) - (693) = (80,055). First-half operating expenses against revenue: compute 8,945 / 16,286 = 55%, personnel 3,152 / 16,286 = 19%, sales and marketing 3,168 / 16,286 = 19%. Cash and short-term investments plus undrawn committed notes 131,651 + 77,000 = 208,651. The Bartz settlement against 2025 revenue 1,500 / 4,585 = 32.7%. Compute and infrastructure spend 2023-H1 2026 433 + 2,522 + 7,326 + 8,945 = 19,226 against cumulative revenue 41 + 386 + 4,585 + 16,286 = 21,298. From the Note 8 functional expense table, implied gross margin (revenue less cost of revenue, over revenue): (41 - 26) / 41 = 36.6% in 2023, (386 - 752) / 386 = -94.8% in 2024, (4,585 - 2,773) / 4,585 = 39.5% in 2025, (1,163 - 1,019) / 1,163 = 12.4% in H1 2025 and (16,286 - 2,380) / 16,286 = 85.4% in H1 2026; research and development over cost of revenue 9,741 / 2,380 = 4.09 times. Compute commitments at 30 June 2026: non-cancelable purchase commitments of 265.6 plus leases not yet commenced of 321.4 = 587.0 billion dollars, against 54.559 + 50.2 = 104.8 billion at 31 December 2025, a rise of 5.6 times in six months; 587.0 / 19.708 = 29.8 times trailing revenue and 587.0 / 131.651 = 4.5 times cash and short-term investments. The named counterparty commitments 161.2 + 120.5 + 114.5 + 110.0 + 44.6 + 44.9 + 20.0 = 615.7 billion. Valuation: the reported 965 billion dollar Series H post-money over trailing revenue 965.0 / 19.708 = 49.0 times, and over annualised first-half revenue 965.0 / 32.572 = 29.6 times. Share counts at 30 June 2026 multiplied by the Series H-1 issue price, 3,041,435 thousand x 589.0095 = 1,791,434 thousand dollars, which does not reproduce the reported figure. Headcount about 940 to about 5,300 is a rise of about 5.6 times while revenue rose about 1,200% over the same period. Commitments against the contracted book: 587,000 / 10,800 = 54.4 times. Net loss against operating loss over the trailing twelve months: 109,744 / 6,618 = 16.6 times. The three commitments owed to companies that also sell models against Anthropic, Google plus Amazon plus Microsoft, 114,500 + 110,000 + 44,900 = 269,400, which is about 44% of the 615,700 named and therefore not most of it. Cash plus undrawn committed notes against total commitments, 208,651 / 587,000 = 36%, about a third. International share of revenue: 7 / 41 = 17.1% in 2023, 123 / 386 = 31.9% in 2024, 1,223 / 4,585 = 26.7% in 2025, 343 / 1,163 = 29.5% in H1 2025, 4,523 / 16,286 = 27.8% in H1 2026 and 5,403 / 19,708 = 27.4% over the trailing twelve months. Revenue from customers above $100,000 as a share of first-half revenue, 12,000 / 16,286 = 74%, and revenue per such customer 12,000 / 6,000 = $2.0m for the half against 870 / 600 = $1.45m a year earlier. — 2023 to H1 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Anthropic's Form S-1 of 26 October 2026; each operand is shown above.
  5. ReportedCompute and infrastructure was $433M in 2023, $2,522M in 2024 and $7,326M in 2025, then $8,945M in the first half of 2026 alone — more in six months than in any full prior year.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the consolidated statements of operations and the summary consolidated financial data. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedCompute and infrastructure was $433M in 2023, $2,522M in 2024 and $7,326M in 2025, then $8,945M in the first half of 2026 alone — more in six months than in any full prior year.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the consolidated statements of operations and the summary consolidated financial data. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMost of it is not serving customers: the functional note puts cost of revenue at $2,380M in the half against research and development of $9,741M.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - Note 8, the presentation of operating expenses grouped by function, including cost of revenue. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe filing leaves one way out and it is an expensive one: "The Company may elect to satisfy a portion of its obligations by issuing convertible promissory notes".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the redeemable convertible preferred stock note, the convertible notes and certain relationships and related party transactions. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcCompute and infrastructure took 55% of first-half revenue, against cumulative compute spending of $19,226M since 2023 on cumulative revenue of $21,298M.
    Moat Explorer calculation from the figures in Anthropic's Form S-1. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026, computed as FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026: revenue 4,585 - 1,163 + 16,286 = 19,708; net loss (41,965) - (12,969) + (80,748) = (109,744); operating loss (8,060) - (2,135) + (693) = (6,618); net loss per share (23.04) - (7.25) + (39.88) = (55.67); United States revenue 3,362 - 820 + 11,763 = 14,305 and International 1,223 - 343 + 4,523 = 5,403. Market value 3,041,435 thousand shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (853,394 preferred + 2,157,398 Class A + 30,643 Class N) multiplied by the $589.0095 Series H-1 issue price = $1,791,434M. Multiples: 1,791,434 / 19,708 = 90.9 times trailing revenue; 1,791,434 / (16,286 x 2) = 55.0 times annualised first-half revenue; 1,791,434 / 4,585 = 390.7 times FY2025 revenue. Revenue growth 386 / 41 - 1 = +841% (2024), 4,585 / 386 - 1 = +1,088% (2025), 16,286 / 1,163 - 1 = +1,300% (H1 2026 against H1 2025). United States share of revenue 34 / 41 = 82.9% (2023), 263 / 386 = 68.1% (2024), 3,362 / 4,585 = 73.3% (2025), 11,763 / 16,286 = 72.2% (H1 2026), 14,305 / 19,708 = 72.6% (trailing twelve months). H1 2026 non-operating charge (80,748) - (693) = (80,055). First-half operating expenses against revenue: compute 8,945 / 16,286 = 55%, personnel 3,152 / 16,286 = 19%, sales and marketing 3,168 / 16,286 = 19%. Cash and short-term investments plus undrawn committed notes 131,651 + 77,000 = 208,651. The Bartz settlement against 2025 revenue 1,500 / 4,585 = 32.7%. Compute and infrastructure spend 2023-H1 2026 433 + 2,522 + 7,326 + 8,945 = 19,226 against cumulative revenue 41 + 386 + 4,585 + 16,286 = 21,298. From the Note 8 functional expense table, implied gross margin (revenue less cost of revenue, over revenue): (41 - 26) / 41 = 36.6% in 2023, (386 - 752) / 386 = -94.8% in 2024, (4,585 - 2,773) / 4,585 = 39.5% in 2025, (1,163 - 1,019) / 1,163 = 12.4% in H1 2025 and (16,286 - 2,380) / 16,286 = 85.4% in H1 2026; research and development over cost of revenue 9,741 / 2,380 = 4.09 times. Compute commitments at 30 June 2026: non-cancelable purchase commitments of 265.6 plus leases not yet commenced of 321.4 = 587.0 billion dollars, against 54.559 + 50.2 = 104.8 billion at 31 December 2025, a rise of 5.6 times in six months; 587.0 / 19.708 = 29.8 times trailing revenue and 587.0 / 131.651 = 4.5 times cash and short-term investments. The named counterparty commitments 161.2 + 120.5 + 114.5 + 110.0 + 44.6 + 44.9 + 20.0 = 615.7 billion. Valuation: the reported 965 billion dollar Series H post-money over trailing revenue 965.0 / 19.708 = 49.0 times, and over annualised first-half revenue 965.0 / 32.572 = 29.6 times. Share counts at 30 June 2026 multiplied by the Series H-1 issue price, 3,041,435 thousand x 589.0095 = 1,791,434 thousand dollars, which does not reproduce the reported figure. Headcount about 940 to about 5,300 is a rise of about 5.6 times while revenue rose about 1,200% over the same period. Commitments against the contracted book: 587,000 / 10,800 = 54.4 times. Net loss against operating loss over the trailing twelve months: 109,744 / 6,618 = 16.6 times. The three commitments owed to companies that also sell models against Anthropic, Google plus Amazon plus Microsoft, 114,500 + 110,000 + 44,900 = 269,400, which is about 44% of the 615,700 named and therefore not most of it. Cash plus undrawn committed notes against total commitments, 208,651 / 587,000 = 36%, about a third. International share of revenue: 7 / 41 = 17.1% in 2023, 123 / 386 = 31.9% in 2024, 1,223 / 4,585 = 26.7% in 2025, 343 / 1,163 = 29.5% in H1 2025, 4,523 / 16,286 = 27.8% in H1 2026 and 5,403 / 19,708 = 27.4% over the trailing twelve months. Revenue from customers above $100,000 as a share of first-half revenue, 12,000 / 16,286 = 74%, and revenue per such customer 12,000 / 6,000 = $2.0m for the half against 870 / 600 = $1.45m a year earlier. — 2023 to H1 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Anthropic's Form S-1 of 26 October 2026; each operand is shown above.
  10. Moat Explorer calcCompute and infrastructure took 55% of first-half revenue, against cumulative compute spending of $19,226M since 2023 on cumulative revenue of $21,298M.
    Moat Explorer calculation from the figures in Anthropic's Form S-1. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026, computed as FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026: revenue 4,585 - 1,163 + 16,286 = 19,708; net loss (41,965) - (12,969) + (80,748) = (109,744); operating loss (8,060) - (2,135) + (693) = (6,618); net loss per share (23.04) - (7.25) + (39.88) = (55.67); United States revenue 3,362 - 820 + 11,763 = 14,305 and International 1,223 - 343 + 4,523 = 5,403. Market value 3,041,435 thousand shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (853,394 preferred + 2,157,398 Class A + 30,643 Class N) multiplied by the $589.0095 Series H-1 issue price = $1,791,434M. Multiples: 1,791,434 / 19,708 = 90.9 times trailing revenue; 1,791,434 / (16,286 x 2) = 55.0 times annualised first-half revenue; 1,791,434 / 4,585 = 390.7 times FY2025 revenue. Revenue growth 386 / 41 - 1 = +841% (2024), 4,585 / 386 - 1 = +1,088% (2025), 16,286 / 1,163 - 1 = +1,300% (H1 2026 against H1 2025). United States share of revenue 34 / 41 = 82.9% (2023), 263 / 386 = 68.1% (2024), 3,362 / 4,585 = 73.3% (2025), 11,763 / 16,286 = 72.2% (H1 2026), 14,305 / 19,708 = 72.6% (trailing twelve months). H1 2026 non-operating charge (80,748) - (693) = (80,055). First-half operating expenses against revenue: compute 8,945 / 16,286 = 55%, personnel 3,152 / 16,286 = 19%, sales and marketing 3,168 / 16,286 = 19%. Cash and short-term investments plus undrawn committed notes 131,651 + 77,000 = 208,651. The Bartz settlement against 2025 revenue 1,500 / 4,585 = 32.7%. Compute and infrastructure spend 2023-H1 2026 433 + 2,522 + 7,326 + 8,945 = 19,226 against cumulative revenue 41 + 386 + 4,585 + 16,286 = 21,298. From the Note 8 functional expense table, implied gross margin (revenue less cost of revenue, over revenue): (41 - 26) / 41 = 36.6% in 2023, (386 - 752) / 386 = -94.8% in 2024, (4,585 - 2,773) / 4,585 = 39.5% in 2025, (1,163 - 1,019) / 1,163 = 12.4% in H1 2025 and (16,286 - 2,380) / 16,286 = 85.4% in H1 2026; research and development over cost of revenue 9,741 / 2,380 = 4.09 times. Compute commitments at 30 June 2026: non-cancelable purchase commitments of 265.6 plus leases not yet commenced of 321.4 = 587.0 billion dollars, against 54.559 + 50.2 = 104.8 billion at 31 December 2025, a rise of 5.6 times in six months; 587.0 / 19.708 = 29.8 times trailing revenue and 587.0 / 131.651 = 4.5 times cash and short-term investments. The named counterparty commitments 161.2 + 120.5 + 114.5 + 110.0 + 44.6 + 44.9 + 20.0 = 615.7 billion. Valuation: the reported 965 billion dollar Series H post-money over trailing revenue 965.0 / 19.708 = 49.0 times, and over annualised first-half revenue 965.0 / 32.572 = 29.6 times. Share counts at 30 June 2026 multiplied by the Series H-1 issue price, 3,041,435 thousand x 589.0095 = 1,791,434 thousand dollars, which does not reproduce the reported figure. Headcount about 940 to about 5,300 is a rise of about 5.6 times while revenue rose about 1,200% over the same period. Commitments against the contracted book: 587,000 / 10,800 = 54.4 times. Net loss against operating loss over the trailing twelve months: 109,744 / 6,618 = 16.6 times. The three commitments owed to companies that also sell models against Anthropic, Google plus Amazon plus Microsoft, 114,500 + 110,000 + 44,900 = 269,400, which is about 44% of the 615,700 named and therefore not most of it. Cash plus undrawn committed notes against total commitments, 208,651 / 587,000 = 36%, about a third. International share of revenue: 7 / 41 = 17.1% in 2023, 123 / 386 = 31.9% in 2024, 1,223 / 4,585 = 26.7% in 2025, 343 / 1,163 = 29.5% in H1 2025, 4,523 / 16,286 = 27.8% in H1 2026 and 5,403 / 19,708 = 27.4% over the trailing twelve months. Revenue from customers above $100,000 as a share of first-half revenue, 12,000 / 16,286 = 74%, and revenue per such customer 12,000 / 6,000 = $2.0m for the half against 870 / 600 = $1.45m a year earlier. — 2023 to H1 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Anthropic's Form S-1 of 26 October 2026; each operand is shown above.
Sources
Generated October 26, 2026