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⚠ The Benchmarks Are All Its OwnModerate threat

Anthropic (ANT) — threat to the moat

Anthropic marks its own homework on capability: no public benchmark score appears anywhere in its filing, and it says its metrics have not been independently verified.

Every capability figure Anthropic publishes is marked at home. The company says its success rates rest on "internal benchmarks developed and maintained by us" and are "based on tasks, data sets, and evaluation criteria selected by us"1, and that metrics including Run-Rate Revenue, Net Revenue Retention, customer counts and Claude success rate "have not been independently verified by third parties"2.

ExploitBench score across four months (%)40%First measure78%Second91%ThirdAnthropic Form S-1; an internal benchmark developed and maintained by the company
A steep curve on a scale the company built.

The clearest example is the one named series in the document. ExploitBench scores moved from 40% to 78% to 91% across four months3. That is a steep and plausible curve, and nobody outside the company selected the tasks or the scoring.

What is missing is as telling as what is there. No score from any public evaluation appears in the filing at all, so a reader comparing Claude with a rival has nothing filed to compare. Outside it there is one such measure, and it favours Anthropic: on usage data through 25 October 2026 OpenRouter placed Claude Opus 5.5 first on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with Moonshot Kimi K3.1 Pro third and Qwen3.8 Max fifth, above GPT-6 Astra in sixth and Gemini 4 Argon in seventh4. OpenRouter cautions that its rankings cover traffic routed through it and that "none of them measures users or spend"5, so the best independent evidence on Claude is a measure of where developers send work rather than of what the model can do.

Anthropic does submit models for outside review, giving pre-deployment access to government bodies including the United States Center for Advancing Innovation and Standards for Super Intelligence and the United Kingdom AI Security Institute6, and it publishes model system cards7. Those cover safety evaluations rather than the capability scores on which the loop rests.

The evidence that would settle it is a benchmark inside the filing that Anthropic does not own. Until one appears, the loop is proved by the cost lines, which are audited, and asserted by the capability lines, which are not.

References
  1. ReportedThe company says its success rates rest on "internal benchmarks developed and maintained by us" and are "based on tasks, data sets, and evaluation criteria selected by us", and that metrics including Run-Rate Revenue, Net Revenue Retention, customer counts and Claude success rate "have not been independently verified by third parties".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the operating metrics and their definitions and limitations. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company says its success rates rest on "internal benchmarks developed and maintained by us" and are "based on tasks, data sets, and evaluation criteria selected by us", and that metrics including Run-Rate Revenue, Net Revenue Retention, customer counts and Claude success rate "have not been independently verified by third parties".
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the operating metrics and their definitions and limitations. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedExploitBench scores moved from 40% to 78% to 91% across four months.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the operating metrics and their definitions and limitations. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateOutside it there is one such measure, and it favours Anthropic: on usage data through 25 October 2026 OpenRouter placed Claude Opus 5.5 first on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with Moonshot Kimi K3.1 Pro third and Qwen3.8 Max fifth, above GPT-6 Astra in sixth and Gemini 4 Argon in seventh.
    OpenRouter model rankings, usage data through 25 October 2026 - on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, Claude Opus 5.5 ranks first, Moonshot Kimi K3.1 Pro third and Qwen3.8 Max fifth, above GPT-6 Astra sixth and Gemini 4 Argon seventh, on index scores of Claude Opus 5.5 57.6, Claude Sonnet 5.5 56.0, Kimi K3.1 Pro 55.1, Fable 5.1 53.4, Qwen3.8 Max 53.4, GPT-6 Astra 52.7 and Gemini 4 Argon 52.6 - four Anthropic models in the top ten, the best open model within three points of the leader, and both named rivals below it. OpenRouter cautions that the rankings show traffic routed through OpenRouter and that "None of them measures users or spend". — October 2026 · publ. 25 October 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateOpenRouter cautions that its rankings cover traffic routed through it and that "none of them measures users or spend", so the best independent evidence on Claude is a measure of where developers send work rather than of what the model can do.
    OpenRouter model rankings, usage data through 25 October 2026 - on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, Claude Opus 5.5 ranks first, Moonshot Kimi K3.1 Pro third and Qwen3.8 Max fifth, above GPT-6 Astra sixth and Gemini 4 Argon seventh, on index scores of Claude Opus 5.5 57.6, Claude Sonnet 5.5 56.0, Kimi K3.1 Pro 55.1, Fable 5.1 53.4, Qwen3.8 Max 53.4, GPT-6 Astra 52.7 and Gemini 4 Argon 52.6 - four Anthropic models in the top ten, the best open model within three points of the leader, and both named rivals below it. OpenRouter cautions that the rankings show traffic routed through OpenRouter and that "None of them measures users or spend". — October 2026 · publ. 25 October 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAnthropic does submit models for outside review, giving pre-deployment access to government bodies including the United States Center for Advancing Innovation and Standards for Super Intelligence and the United Kingdom AI Security Institute, and it publishes model system cards.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the safety research, Responsible Scaling Policy and model-release sections. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAnthropic does submit models for outside review, giving pre-deployment access to government bodies including the United States Center for Advancing Innovation and Standards for Super Intelligence and the United Kingdom AI Security Institute, and it publishes model system cards.
    Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1 registration statement (Registration No. 333-299633), filed 26 October 2026 - revenue $41M (2023), $386M (2024), $4,585M (2025), $1,163M (H1 2025) and $16,286M (H1 2026); operating loss $(551)M, $(2,980)M, $(8,060)M, $(2,135)M and $(693)M; net loss $(1,531)M, $(8,309)M, $(41,965)M, $(12,969)M and $(80,748)M, after a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs of $(72,388)M in the first half of 2026; net loss per share $(1.42), $(5.43), $(23.04), $(7.25) and $(39.88); operating expenses in the first half of 2026 of compute and infrastructure $8,945M, personnel $3,152M, sales, marketing and partnerships $3,168M and other operating and administrative $1,714M, presented by nature with no cost-of-revenue line on the face of the statement, while Note 8 regroups the same expenses by function and gives cost of revenue of $26M, $752M, $2,773M, $1,019M and $2,380M against research and development of $422M, $2,275M, $6,338M, $1,850M and $9,741M; a Bartz settlement line of $1,500M in 2025; interest income $1,111M in the first half of 2026; revenue by geography United States $34M, $263M, $3,362M, $820M and $11,763M and International $7M, $123M, $1,223M, $343M and $4,523M; total assets $147,358M, cash and short-term investments $131,651M, accounts receivable $5,833M, convertible notes payable $108,566M, redeemable convertible preferred stock $157,510M and a total stockholders' deficit of $(127,619)M at 30 June 2026; 853,394 thousand preferred, 2,157,398 thousand Class A and 30,643 thousand Class N shares outstanding at that date; Net Revenue Retention of approximately 900 % and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000 of trailing revenue at 30 September 2026, up from more than 950 a year earlier, with more than 1,900 above $1 million and approximately 250 above $10 million; over 50% of the Fortune 500 and over 30% of the Global 2000 among them, Anthropic's revenue averaging less than 0.1% of those Fortune 500 customers' total expenses; revenue through cloud service provider marketplaces of 11% (2023), 32% (2024), 47% (2025), 44% (H1 2025) and 48% (H1 2026); $20,000M, $15,000M and $42,000M of undrawn committed note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and an infrastructure partner; non-cancelable purchase commitments of $54,559M at 31 December 2025 rising to approximately $265.6 billion at 30 June 2026 with terms of one to 20 years, plus leases not yet commenced of approximately $50.2 billion and $321.4 billion at those dates, and named commitments of about $161.2 billion of Broadcom equipment leases, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX.AI LLC for NVIDIA GPU compute, at least about $114.5 billion with Google, at least $110.0 billion with Amazon, up to about $44.6 billion with Nscale and at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft; a $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement approved by the district court in July 2026; a September 2026 Sherman Act class action alleging the frontier developers agreed to slow the pace of model improvement; a Department of War supply-chain risk designation under Section 4713 upheld 2-1 by the D.C. Circuit on 25 September 2026 with a petition for rehearing en banc pending, and June 2026 Commerce export restrictions that led Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer; over 90% of contributions to its own codebase written by Claude in September 2026; one share of Class T common stock electing a majority of the board, Class A voting power capped at 49.9%, and Amazon and Google each holding more than five percent of capital stock while appearing in no row of the beneficial-ownership table, which covers voting securities only; and the statement that prior to the offering there has been no public market for the Class A common stock - the safety research, Responsible Scaling Policy and model-release sections. — 2023 to 30 September 2026 · publ. 26 October 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 26, 2026