⚠ The Five-Largest Comparison Is a Moving TargetModerate threat

VeriSign (VRSN) — threat to the moat

The comparison set is a thousand suffixes larger than it was when the clause was written, and nothing says convergence runs in VeriSign's favour.

The clause that could reshape VeriSign's contract compares it to a group whose membership keeps changing.

Generic top-level domains, by era22Before the 2012 round~1,200After the 2012 round1,600+2026 round applicationsThe five-largest-gTLD comparison set is drawn from a field that keeps growing.
The peer group .com is benchmarked against did not exist when the clause was written.

If certain terms of the .com and .net Registry Agreements are not similar to those generally in effect across the registry agreements of the five largest gTLDs, a renewal must be on terms reasonably necessary to make them similar.1 When that language was written, the comparison group was .com, .net, .org and a couple of others — registries of the same generation, operating under the same assumptions.

Fourteen years later the field is roughly a thousand suffixes holding 52.9 million names and growing 34.0% a year, and their agreements were drafted under a framework designed to promote competition rather than to preserve an incumbent.2 ICANN's 2026 round closed with more than 1,600 further applications.3

The mechanism does not require anybody to be hostile to VeriSign. It only requires the .com agreement to look increasingly unlike everything around it — which it does, because .com's price cap, its Department of Commerce oversight and its vertical-integration restrictions have no equivalent in the newer agreements.

The direction of the convergence is the open question. Nothing says it runs toward VeriSign's constraints being loosened.

References
  1. ReportedIf certain terms of the .com and .net Registry Agreements are not similar to such terms generally in effect in the registry agreements of the five largest gTLDs, a renewal would be upon terms reasonably necessary to render them similar; VeriSign also faces obligations that do not apply to ccTLDs and other gTLDs.
    VeriSign, Inc., Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 1A, Risk Factors. Demand for domain names could be negatively impacted to the extent end-users establish their online identities using social media such as Facebook, Instagram or TikTok, or transact business through mobile applications. Local governments actively promote ccTLDs that VeriSign does not operate. The .com and .net Registry Agreements provide that if certain terms are not similar to such terms generally in effect in the registry agreements of the five largest gTLDs, a renewal would be upon terms reasonably necessary to render them similar. VeriSign is subject to obligations that do not apply to ccTLDs and other gTLDs and that may create a competitive disadvantage. The company depends on key personnel and warns that a failure to attract, retain or effectively implement succession plans could harm the business. Dividends are subject to declaration by the board and to numerous factors including results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, contractual prohibitions and other restrictions, with no assurance that any will be paid and with board discretion to decrease the level. Efforts to acquire the .web gTLD are identified as an initiative requiring significant resources and subject to regulatory scrutiny. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-05 · source ↗
  2. ReportedNew generic TLD registrations were 52.9 million at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 34.0% year over year.
    Domain Name Industry Brief Quarterly Report — 401.6 million domain name registrations across all top-level domains at the end of the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 9.1 million or 2.3% on the first quarter and 29.9 million or 8.1% year over year. The .com and .net TLDs had a combined 179.1 million registrations in the domain name base, up 3.0 million or 1.7% on the quarter. Country-code TLD registrations were 148.6 million, up 5.2 million or 3.6% year over year. New generic TLD registrations were 52.9 million, up 3.3 million or 6.7% on the quarter and 13.4 million or 34.0% year over year. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-23 · source ↗
  3. ReportedICANN's 2026 round closed on 12 August 2026 with more than 1,600 applications.
    ICANN — the New gTLD Program 2026 Round application submission window closed on 12 August 2026 with more than 1,600 primary applications received, of which more than 1,100 included applications for replacement strings; final totals are confirmed on payment of the evaluation fee. — 2026 · publ. 2026-08-13 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026