Four Years of Price Increases, Announced in AdvanceWide moat
TSMC (TSM) — moat facet
A supplier that tells customers to expect price rises every year until 2029 is not negotiating — it is scheduling.
The clearest measure of who holds power in these relationships is not a share figure. It is that TSMC has reportedly notified customers of its advanced processes that they should expect price increases in each of four consecutive years beginning in 20261. A 2nm wafer is priced around $30,000, a 10-20% premium to 3nm, with advanced nodes below 5nm rising a further 5-10% in 20262.
Consider what that requires. A supplier can only pre-announce years of increases if it is confident its customers have nowhere to go — and TSMC's customers, having spent years co-developing designs around its process rules, largely do not. The prices are not being negotiated so much as scheduled.
There is a limit, and it is not competitive. TSMC's own filing flags rising antitrust exposure, noting increasing criticism of concentration in the semiconductor industry and sometimes of TSMC directly, and heightened risk of investigations3. A company with this share and this pricing behaviour attracts regulators regardless of how it earned the position — and regulators are the one counterparty that cannot be locked in by a design kit.
Watch gross margin, which reached 59.9% for 2025 and higher still in recent quarters. If TSMC can raise prices four years running and margin keeps climbing, the customers are absorbing it and the moat is intact. If margin flattens while prices rise, the increases are being eaten by the cost of the nodes themselves — and the pricing power is more apparent than real.
Pricing power has strengthened materially. TSMC has reportedly told advanced-node customers to expect increases in each of four consecutive years from 2026, on top of a 2nm wafer already priced around $30,000 — and gross margin has been rising through it. A supplier that can schedule multi-year price increases in advance has demonstrated the moat more convincingly than any share statistic. The constraint is regulatory rather than competitive, and TSMC flags it in its own filings.
TSMC is reported to have told customers to expect price increases for several years. A premium that holds or widens says customers accept it; a smaller premium would show the pricing power limited.
Source: TrendForce (Oct 2025) ↗- Third-party estimateAdvanced-process customers have been notified to expect price increases in each of four consecutive years beginning 2026.TrendForce and related reporting on TSMC advanced-node pricing — 2nm wafers priced at roughly $30,000, a 10-20% premium over 3nm; advanced nodes below 5nm to rise a further 5-10% in 2026; customers of advanced processes notified to expect price increases in each of four consecutive years beginning 2026 — 2026-2029 · publ. October 2025 · source ↗
- Third-party estimateA 2nm wafer is priced around $30,000, a 10-20% premium to 3nm, with sub-5nm nodes rising a further 5-10% in 2026.TrendForce and related reporting on TSMC advanced-node pricing — 2nm wafers priced at roughly $30,000, a 10-20% premium over 3nm; advanced nodes below 5nm to rise a further 5-10% in 2026; customers of advanced processes notified to expect price increases in each of four consecutive years beginning 2026 — 2026-2029 · publ. October 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedTSMC's 20-F flags heightened antitrust risk amid increasing criticism of semiconductor-industry concentration and sometimes of TSMC directly.TSMC Form 20-F, FY2025 — risk factors: with success in the foundry business and increasing criticism of concentration in the semiconductor industry and sometimes directly on TSMC, the company is subject to heightened risks of antitrust investigations, and adverse results of potential antitrust proceedings could harm its business — FY2025 · publ. April 16, 2026 · source ↗
- TSMC Form 20-F filings — Business & Risk Factors (SEC EDGAR)
- TrendForce — TSMC 2nm reportedly up 10-20%, 3-7nm single-digit in 2026