◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Mitsubishi Corporation (8058) — the variant view

Berkshire's biggest Japanese position is priced by a market that doubts Mitsubishi's guidance, though even without planned asset sales it implies 17% underlying growth.

📈 8058 valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Berkshire Hathaway's largest Japanese holding is Mitsubishi. Berkshire made its first purchases in the five trading houses in July 20191 and disclosed stakes of slightly more than 5% in August 2020, with an undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval2. It raised its Mitsubishi stake to 10.23% in August 20253, and by the end of 2025 held 10.8%, at a cost of $4,248 million and a market value of $9,207 million, receiving $273 million of dividends that year4. It funds the position with yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%5. Its chief executive said in September 2026 that it intends to hold the trading houses for many decades6.

Berkshire's Mitsubishi stake, end-2025 ($ m)4,248Cost9,207Market value2732025 dividendsBerkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter
More than double its cost, and a dividend well above the cost of the yen that funds it.

What the market may be missing is the gap between the guidance and the price. Mitsubishi guides net income of ¥1.1 trillion for the year to March 20277; the shares fell about 9.5% between the end of March and September8910. The scepticism has a basis: ¥280.0 billion of the guidance is capital recycling and one-time items11. But excluding those, the guidance still implies adjusted profit of about ¥820 billion, 17% above the ¥703.7 billion of the latest year1213.

The first quarter supports it. Net income rose 47.0% to ¥298.5 billion14, and the company left its forecast unchanged15.

Berkshire's chief executive also said each trading house had given permission for Berkshire to own more than 10%16. The 2024 shareholder letter described the five companies as having agreed to moderately relax the ceiling17.

The measure is adjusted net income for the year. Reaching ¥820 billion would make the current price, at about 20 times trailing earnings18, look reasonable for a business compounding at that rate.

References
  1. ReportedBerkshire made its first purchases in the five trading houses in July 2019 and disclosed stakes of slightly more than 5% in August 2020, with an undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2024 shareholder letter - first purchases in July 2019 and the agreement to moderately relax the 10% ceiling. — 2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedBerkshire made its first purchases in the five trading houses in July 2019 and disclosed stakes of slightly more than 5% in August 2020, with an undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval.
    Berkshire Hathaway news release, 31 August 2020 - holdings of slightly more than 5% in each of five Japanese trading companies, and the undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval. — August 2020 · publ. 31 August 2020 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt raised its Mitsubishi stake to 10.23% in August 2025, and by the end of 2025 held 10.8%, at a cost of $4,248 million and a market value of $9,207 million, receiving $273 million of dividends that year.
    CNBC, 28 August 2025 - Berkshire raised its stake in Mitsubishi to 10.23% from 9.74%. — August 2025 · publ. 28 August 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt raised its Mitsubishi stake to 10.23% in August 2025, and by the end of 2025 held 10.8%, at a cost of $4,248 million and a market value of $9,207 million, receiving $273 million of dividends that year.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter - Mitsubishi at 10.8%, cost $4,248 million, market value $9,207 million, and yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt funds the position with yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter - Mitsubishi at 10.8%, cost $4,248 million, market value $9,207 million, and yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts chief executive said in September 2026 that it intends to hold the trading houses for many decades.
    CNBC, 2 September 2026 - Greg Abel in Tokyo on holding the trading houses for many decades and on Japanese bond yields. — September 2026 · publ. 2 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMitsubishi guides net income of ¥1.1 trillion for the year to March 2027; the shares fell about 9.5% between the end of March and September.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, the eight-segment note, dividends and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedMitsubishi guides net income of ¥1.1 trillion for the year to March 2027; the shares fell about 9.5% between the end of March and September.
    Mitsubishi Corporation (TYO: 8058) ratios - market capitalisation, P/E, P/S and P/B at each March year-end, 2022-2026. — March 2022-March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedMitsubishi guides net income of ¥1.1 trillion for the year to March 2027; the shares fell about 9.5% between the end of March and September.
    Mitsubishi Corporation (TYO: 8058) market data - share price, market capitalisation 17.62T yen, trailing revenue, net income and EPS, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcMitsubishi guides net income of ¥1.1 trillion for the year to March 2027; the shares fell about 9.5% between the end of March and September.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsubishi Corporation's reported figures. Equity-method profit over net profit: 467.9 / 800.5 = 58.5%. Mineral Resources plus Environmental Energy over segment total: (204.5 + 160.9) / 752.1 = 48.6%. Energy & Power (Environmental Energy plus Power Solution): 238.8 + 97.9 = 336.7 (year to March 2024), 198.6 - 15.6 = 183.0 (2025), 160.9 + 43.4 = 204.3 (2026). Other and adjustments: 51.2 - 9.2 = 42.0 (2025), 51.8 - 3.5 = 48.3 (2026). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 800.5 + 298.5 - 203.1 = 895.9; revenue 19,878.3; EPS 210.92 + 81.53 - 51.59 = 240.86. Progress against guidance: 298.5 / 1,100.0 = 27.1%. Share price change since March: 4,811 / 5,317 - 1 = -9.5%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 9,207 / 4,248 = 2.17 times; dividend on cost 273 / 4,248 = 6.4%. Mitsubishi Development profit: 190.2, 132.9, 8.3. Copper profit growth: 149.9 / 63.8 = 2.35 times. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral Resources 204.5 / 5,995.2 = 3.4%; Energy & Power 204.3 / 6,079.0 = 3.4%; Smart-Life Creation 91.0 / 2,745.5 = 3.3%; Food Industry 83.3 / 2,334.1 = 3.6%; Urban Development & Infrastructure 85.1 / 2,173.8 = 3.9%; Mobility 57.6 / 1,942.7 = 3.0%; Materials Solution 26.3 / 1,971.4 = 1.3%. Adjusted net income growth implied by guidance: (1,100.0 - 280.0) / 703.7 = 1.17. Split-adjusted dividend growth: 125 / 44 = 2.8 times. Buyback share of shares: 318.4 / 4,028.9 = 7.9%. Data-centre capacity growth: 168 / 29 = 5.8 times. Average buyback price: about ¥1,000,000 million / 318.4 million shares = about ¥3,141. Lawson return on carrying value: 28.8 / 502.6 = 5.7%. Copper profit excluding the Anglo American Sur reversal: 149.9 - 53.2 = 96.7. Interest cost of one percentage point on ¥5,746.9 billion: about ¥57 billion. Eneco goodwill cover: 167.0 / 31.0 = 5.4 years of profit. Aethon expected return: ¥50-60 billion on about ¥800 billion = 6-8%. Oil assumption effect: (78 - 70) x ¥2.4 billion = about ¥19 billion. Market value over adjusted net income: 17,620 / 703.7 = 25 times. Dividends paid: 408,458 / 289,692 = 1.41 (up 41%) while net income 800.5 / 964.0 = 0.83 (down 17%). MDP return on plant: 8.3 / 1,160.6 = 0.7%. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsubishi Corporation's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedThe scepticism has a basis: ¥280.0 billion of the guidance is capital recycling and one-time items.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - capital recycling and one-time items and adjusted consolidated net income. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedBut excluding those, the guidance still implies adjusted profit of about ¥820 billion, 17% above the ¥703.7 billion of the latest year.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - capital recycling and one-time items and adjusted consolidated net income. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  13. Moat Explorer calcBut excluding those, the guidance still implies adjusted profit of about ¥820 billion, 17% above the ¥703.7 billion of the latest year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsubishi Corporation's reported figures. Equity-method profit over net profit: 467.9 / 800.5 = 58.5%. Mineral Resources plus Environmental Energy over segment total: (204.5 + 160.9) / 752.1 = 48.6%. Energy & Power (Environmental Energy plus Power Solution): 238.8 + 97.9 = 336.7 (year to March 2024), 198.6 - 15.6 = 183.0 (2025), 160.9 + 43.4 = 204.3 (2026). Other and adjustments: 51.2 - 9.2 = 42.0 (2025), 51.8 - 3.5 = 48.3 (2026). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 800.5 + 298.5 - 203.1 = 895.9; revenue 19,878.3; EPS 210.92 + 81.53 - 51.59 = 240.86. Progress against guidance: 298.5 / 1,100.0 = 27.1%. Share price change since March: 4,811 / 5,317 - 1 = -9.5%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 9,207 / 4,248 = 2.17 times; dividend on cost 273 / 4,248 = 6.4%. Mitsubishi Development profit: 190.2, 132.9, 8.3. Copper profit growth: 149.9 / 63.8 = 2.35 times. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral Resources 204.5 / 5,995.2 = 3.4%; Energy & Power 204.3 / 6,079.0 = 3.4%; Smart-Life Creation 91.0 / 2,745.5 = 3.3%; Food Industry 83.3 / 2,334.1 = 3.6%; Urban Development & Infrastructure 85.1 / 2,173.8 = 3.9%; Mobility 57.6 / 1,942.7 = 3.0%; Materials Solution 26.3 / 1,971.4 = 1.3%. Adjusted net income growth implied by guidance: (1,100.0 - 280.0) / 703.7 = 1.17. Split-adjusted dividend growth: 125 / 44 = 2.8 times. Buyback share of shares: 318.4 / 4,028.9 = 7.9%. Data-centre capacity growth: 168 / 29 = 5.8 times. Average buyback price: about ¥1,000,000 million / 318.4 million shares = about ¥3,141. Lawson return on carrying value: 28.8 / 502.6 = 5.7%. Copper profit excluding the Anglo American Sur reversal: 149.9 - 53.2 = 96.7. Interest cost of one percentage point on ¥5,746.9 billion: about ¥57 billion. Eneco goodwill cover: 167.0 / 31.0 = 5.4 years of profit. Aethon expected return: ¥50-60 billion on about ¥800 billion = 6-8%. Oil assumption effect: (78 - 70) x ¥2.4 billion = about ¥19 billion. Market value over adjusted net income: 17,620 / 703.7 = 25 times. Dividends paid: 408,458 / 289,692 = 1.41 (up 41%) while net income 800.5 / 964.0 = 0.83 (down 17%). MDP return on plant: 8.3 / 1,160.6 = 0.7%. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsubishi Corporation's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  14. ReportedNet income rose 47.0% to ¥298.5 billion, and the company left its forecast unchanged.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Financial Highlights for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenues, profit, segment results on seven segments, cash flows, the balance sheet and share count after the buyback cancellation. — April-June 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedNet income rose 47.0% to ¥298.5 billion, and the company left its forecast unchanged.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Financial Highlights for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenues, profit, segment results on seven segments, cash flows, the balance sheet and share count after the buyback cancellation. — April-June 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedBerkshire's chief executive also said each trading house had given permission for Berkshire to own more than 10%.
    CNBC, 2 September 2026 - Greg Abel in Tokyo on holding the trading houses for many decades and on Japanese bond yields. — September 2026 · publ. 2 September 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedThe 2024 shareholder letter described the five companies as having agreed to moderately relax the ceiling.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2024 shareholder letter - first purchases in July 2019 and the agreement to moderately relax the 10% ceiling. — 2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  18. ReportedReaching ¥820 billion would make the current price, at about 20 times trailing earnings, look reasonable for a business compounding at that rate.
    Mitsubishi Corporation (TYO: 8058) market data - share price, market capitalisation 17.62T yen, trailing revenue, net income and EPS, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026