⚠ Iron Ore Profit Fell a FifthLow threat

Marubeni (8002) — threat to the moat

Roy Hill's profit is the Chinese steel cycle expressed in yen, and it fell a fifth last year.

Roy Hill's contribution fell from ¥24.7 billion to ¥19.2 billion in one year1. Marubeni does not market the ore and does not set the price; the mine sells into a seaborne market dominated by Chinese steelmakers.

Adjusted net profit, year to March 2026 (¥ bn)Non-resources — 68%Resources — 31%Other — 1%Marubeni IR presentation, May 2026
Resources are under a third of adjusted profit, and iron ore is one of the smaller pieces of that.

For Marubeni the stake is one of several resource bets. Resources were ¥147.0 billion of the ¥480.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 20262, about 30.6%3, and iron ore is one of the weaker parts of that this year.

The metals segment as a whole still rose, from ¥123.5 billion to ¥134.3 billion4, because copper rose more than iron ore and coal fell. That is the diversification Marubeni argues for: three resource lines that do not all move together.

The measure is the direction of the line across two more years. Two further years below ¥20 billion would say the stake is worth less than the ¥190.0 billion exposure Marubeni carries5.

References
  1. ReportedRoy Hill's contribution fell from ¥24.7 billion to ¥19.2 billion in one year.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - net profit of major group companies by segment, with ownership and business descriptions. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedResources were ¥147.0 billion of the ¥480.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 2026, about 30.6%, and iron ore is one of the weaker parts of that this year.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - adjusted net profit by segment and by resources and non-resources, and the one-time items. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcResources were ¥147.0 billion of the ¥480.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 2026, about 30.6%, and iron ore is one of the weaker parts of that this year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Marubeni's reported figures. Equity-method share of profit before tax: 338.3 / 664.5 = 50.9%. Resources share of adjusted net profit: 147.0 / 480.0 = 30.6%. Investments in associates as a share of total assets: 3,504.2 / 10,531.8 = 33.3%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Food & Agri 81.5 / 2,700.6 = 3.0%; Metals & Mineral Resources 134.3 / 1,647.6 = 8.2%; Finance, Leasing & Real Estate 162.0 / 1,021.0 = 15.9%; Power & Infrastructure 53.6 / 1,776.1 = 3.0%; Aerospace & Mobility 47.8 / 838.6 = 5.7%; Energy & Chemicals 23.2 / 1,147.6 = 2.0%; Lifestyle 25.9 / 667.6 = 3.9%. Food & Agri net margin on revenue: 81.5 / 3,720.5 = 2.2%. Total payout: (176.5 + 55.0) / 543.9 = 42.6%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 543.9 + 186.4 - 154.4 = 575.9; revenue 8,265.8 + 2,609.2 - 2,163.7 = 8,711.3. Net profit growth from the year to March 2016: 543.9 / 62.3 = 8.7 times. Share of the Food & Agri segment's profit from Helena: 37.3 / 81.5 = 45.8%. Dividends received against equity-method income: 220.9 / 338.3 = 65.3%. Berkshire's gain on cost: 4,468 / 1,572 = 2.84 times. Equity growth from currency translation: 345.8 of 734.5 = 47.1%. Market value against the ¥26 trillion that ranked 100th in the world at March 2026: 8.09 / 26 = 31%. Other segments, year to March 2026: IT Solutions 5.4 + Next Generation Business Development 19.6 - Next Generation Corporate Development 1.7 - Other 7.7 = 15.6; with Lifestyle 25.9 the chart's last band is 41.5, and for the year to March 2025 29.5 + 3.5 + 4.7 - 2.2 + 17.3 = 52.8. Trailing P/E: 8.09 / 0.5759 = 14.0. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Marubeni's financial results, integrated report and IR presentations; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedThe metals segment as a whole still rose, from ¥123.5 billion to ¥134.3 billion, because copper rose more than iron ore and coal fell.
    Marubeni Corporation, Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - consolidated statements of profit or loss, financial position and cash flows, the segment note on the ten operating segments with revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of profit of associates, net profit and segment assets, the investments in associates by segment, the one-time items including the Daiichi Life real-estate valuation gain, the dividend and buyback record, and the forecast for the year to March 2027 with its assumptions. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedTwo further years below ¥20 billion would say the stake is worth less than the ¥190.0 billion exposure Marubeni carries.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026