⚠ Timing the Cycle Is HardModerate threat

Buying in the downturn is a wonderful idea and a genuinely difficult practice, because no one rings a bell at the bottom. Land bought in what looks like the trough can turn out to be the middle of a longer, deeper slump, leaving even a disciplined buyer holding plots through years of weak demand and rising financing costs. And the strategy demands conviction precisely when conviction is hardest — committing capital to land while the headlines scream recession and the board frets about the dividend. Dom's record here is strong, but counter-cyclical buying is a bet on judgment — and the last turn, from 0,1% to 6,75% inside a year with lending halving behind it¹, forgave few mistimed bets. Judgment about the turning points of a rate-and-housing cycle is a thing even the best occasionally get wrong.