⚠ The Rate & Mortgage CycleHigh threat

The largest force acting on Dom Development is one it cannot influence at all: the cost and availability of mortgages, set by interest rates and bank lending standards. Almost every apartment is bought with borrowed money, so when the National Bank of Poland raises rates or banks tighten credit, demand can evaporate startlingly fast — in 2021–22 the reference rate leapt from 0,1% to 6,75% and new mortgage lending roughly halved¹ — sales stall, prices soften, and the whole industry's volumes drop regardless of how well any one developer is run. Dom's discipline lets it endure and even exploit these freezes better than rivals, but it does not lift the company out of them: its revenue, its margins, and its dividend all ultimately dance to a tune played in the central bank and the mortgage market. A disciplined balance sheet is protection against the cycle's damage, not exemption from the cycle itself, and the cycle is the dominant fact of the business.