✦ A Land Bank for 20 000 HomesNarrow moat

Dom Development (DOM) — the future bets

Four years of future revenue already in the ground — and the timing of its purchase, not the land itself, is what determines the margin on every home.

Everything a homebuilder will earn for the next four years is already sitting in the ground it owns. Dom Development's land bank reached 19 770 units at the end of 20231 and stood at 17 844 at 30 June 2026, 6% lower than a year earlier2. The board's own rule is that the bank should support at least four years of sales3; on the 4 797 units sold in the twelve months to June it now covers about 3,74. That land is the working capital that makes the 5 000-a-year ambition physically possible, and on current numbers it is running slightly short of the company's own target.

Land bank in years of sales5,1End 20234,2End 20253,7Jun 2026Land bank / units sold in the year (June 2026: last 12 months, 4 797); Dom reports
The bank has fallen below the four years of sales the board says it should hold.

The strategic point is when the land was bought. Dom's reputation rests on having grown the bank through the 2022-23 freeze, when interest rates had gone from near zero to 6,75% and mortgage lending collapsed, forcing weaker developers to stop buying entirely and some to sell. A balance sheet strong enough to accumulate land when nobody else can is the closest thing a cyclical, commodity-adjacent business has to a moat — not because the land is unique, but because the timing of its purchase determines the margin on every home built on it.

The corresponding risk is that land is also how developers destroy themselves. A bank bought in a boom becomes a set of projects that must be built through the bust at margins agreed when everything looked easy, and Polish permitting can leave a plot unbuildable for years. Watch the land bank's unit capacity each half, and watch spending on land when prices are high. Growth in the bank during the next downturn — not this upswing — is the evidence that the counter-cyclical claim is a policy rather than one lucky cycle.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Roughly four years of production secured, much of it accumulated through the 2022-23 freeze when weaker developers could not buy at all — which is the closest thing this industry offers to an advantage. The direction holds only if the bank keeps growing when land is expensive; buying only in easy markets would make the counter-cyclical claim a coincidence.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Land bank, units on land purchased and under control
17 844 at 30 June 2026, -6%

The target is at least four years of sales; a land bank falling while sales rise shortens that runway.

Source: Dom Development management report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe land bank reached 19 770 units at the end of 2023.
    Dom Development 2023 results presentation — land bank capacity 17 125 units (end-2022) → 19 770 (end-2023), +15% through the downturn; Kraków bank +93% YoY, Wrocław +35%; Q4 2023 purchases incl. Hubska (Wrocław) and Uczniowska (Gdańsk) — FY2022-FY2023 · publ. March 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe land bank stood at 17 844 units at 30 June 2026, 6% lower than a year earlier.
    Dom Development management report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 - sales, deliveries, stock, units under construction and land bank by city; revenue, net profit, gross margin, net cash, deferred income, dividend; entry into Poznan — H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe board's rule is that the land bank should support at least four years of sales.
    Dom Development H1 2026 management report - construction material prices +1,1% in H1 2026 and +3,5% year on year in June (OSB and timber +11%, insulation +5%, PSB data); group gross margin 30,9% against 35,2%, attributed to project mix; BIK housing-loan enquiries +15,8% by value in June 2026, average amount PLN 506,6k (+6,2%); 49% of Q2 2026 units bought with buyers' own funds only; optimal land bank at least four years of sales; annual dividends since the 2006 listing — H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcOn 4 797 units sold in the twelve months to June 2026, the land bank covers about 3,7 years.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dom Development's reported figures - 12-month sales to June 2026 = 4 448 (FY2025) - 2 033 (H1 2025) + 2 382 (H1 2026) = 4 797 units; land bank 17 844 / 4 797 = 3,7 years — July 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: LTM net sales = FY2025 net sales less H1 2025 plus H1 2026; coverage = land bank at 30 June 2026 divided by LTM net sales
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026