⚠ The Subsidy WhipsawHigh threat

Polish housing demand has become dangerously hostage to government subsidy programs — schemes like the 'Bezpieczny Kredyt' low-interest-mortgage initiative that, when introduced, unleash a flood of subsidized buyers and send prices and volumes soaring, and when they lapse or run out of funds, cause demand to fall off a cliff — exactly the arc of 2023's 'Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%', which ignited a buying rush and then lapsed¹. Its shadow was still visible two years later: developers in the seven largest cities sold an estimated 40 700 flats in 2025, up 9%, monthly sales of around 5 000 returned in November and December for the first time since the scheme was running at the end of 2023, and unsold stock still ended the year at a record 62 000². This political whipsaw makes the cycle sharper and less predictable, layering the whims of shifting government policy on top of the ordinary rate cycle. A developer can be whipsawed from a frenzied sellers' market to a sudden freeze by a single budgetary decision, and the on-again-off-again nature of these programs makes planning land purchases and construction pace genuinely difficult. Dom manages the volatility better than most, but a demand base propped up and periodically kicked away by the state is a structural instability no operational excellence can fully offset.