⚠ Concentration in a Few Fabs and NodesModerate threat

The installed base that generates ASML's prized annuity is, for its most valuable EUV machines, concentrated in a small number of leading-edge fabs owned by a handful of customers. This concentration is the flip side of the leading edge's exclusivity: only a few companies can afford and operate advanced fabs, so the fleet of the most advanced, most service-rich machines sits with TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and a short list of others. The annuity is deep but narrow — enormous value, drawn from very few sites and customers.

The risk this creates is that the health of a large part of the installed-base business depends on the continued operation and advancement of a small number of specific fabs. A leading customer scaling back leading-edge production, a fab running below capacity, or a shift in where advanced manufacturing happens (driven by geopolitics and subsidies) would all flow through to the service revenue drawn from those sites. ASML's installed base is growing and diversifying as advanced fabs are built in more places — the US, Europe, Japan — which over time spreads the concentration. But today the highest-value part of the annuity leans on a narrow set of customers and facilities, and its quality, while high, carries the same concentration risk that runs through ASML's whole leading-edge business: a great deal riding on the decisions of very few — every EUV machine on earth sits in the fabs of a handful of chipmakers¹.