⚠ The Renewal Rate Walmart Cannot ReportModerate threat

Walmart (WMT) — threat to the moat

A company with Costco's renewal rate would publish it.

The most telling fact about Walmart+ is a number that does not exist in any Walmart disclosure: how many members there are, and how many of them renew.

Membership fee revenue growth, June 2026 quarter (%)+17%Walmart+ (globalmembership fees)+6%Sam's Club fee revenue+15.6%Membership andother income+5.9%Net salesWalmart publishes no member count and no renewal rate. Costco publishes both.
Walmart+ has to be worth paying for in a shop the member could use for free, which is a much harder sale than Costco's — and the reason the benefit has to be delivery.

Walmart reports membership fee revenue growth — 17% globally in the June 2026 quarter, with a record second-quarter high for Walmart+ net additions1 — and membership and other income in the accounts, $6,750 million in fiscal 20262. It does not report a member count, a renewal rate, or a split between Walmart+ and Sam's Club. Costco reports all of it: 81 million paid memberships and a 92.3% renewal rate in the United States and Canada3.

That asymmetry is not an accident of reporting style. A subscription business discloses retention when retention is the asset. Walmart discloses growth rates, which is what a company discloses when the absolute level is not yet impressive or the churn is not yet flattering.

The structural difficulty is that Walmart+ has to be worth paying for in a shop the member could use for free. Costco's fee is the price of entry; Walmart's is the price of convenience on top of a store that is already open to everybody. That is a much harder sale, and it means the benefit has to be delivery — the most expensive thing Walmart can provide.

The opportunity is correspondingly large. Walmart sees 280 million customers a week4 and converts a small fraction of them into members; Costco sees a fraction of that and converts nearly all of them.

Watch membership and other income, which has gone from $5,488 million to $6,750 million in two years5. Until Walmart publishes a renewal rate, that line is the only evidence the programme is becoming a franchise rather than a discount scheme.

References
  1. ReportedWalmart reports membership fee revenue growth — 17% globally in the June 2026 quarter, with a record second-quarter high for Walmart+ net additions — and membership and other income in the accounts, $6,750 million in fiscal 2026.
    Walmart second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) - revenue $187.9 billion +5.9% and +5.1% in constant currency; operating income +28.8% and +17.4% adjusted in constant currency; global eCommerce +23%; global advertising +38% with Walmart Connect excluding VIZIO +43%; membership fee revenue +17%; gross profit rate +96 basis points and Walmart U.S. +158; Walmart U.S. comp sales +2.6% and operating income +20.6% with operating expenses deleveraged 72 basis points; Sam's Club operating income +44.3% and International +16.6%; ROA 8.0% and ROI 15.4%; free cash flow $5.5 billion; 42.3 million shares repurchased for $5.1 billion year to date; FY27 guidance of 4.0-5.0% net sales growth, 7.0-8.5% adjusted operating income growth and $2.80-$2.87 adjusted EPS — Q2 FY2027 · publ. August 20, 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedWalmart reports membership fee revenue growth — 17% globally in the June 2026 quarter, with a record second-quarter high for Walmart+ net additions — and membership and other income in the accounts, $6,750 million in fiscal 2026.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCostco reports all of it: 81 million paid memberships and a 92.3% renewal rate in the United States and Canada.
    Costco Form 10-K, fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 - Item 1 Business (membership counts and renewal rates, warehouse and gas-station counts, under 4,000 SKUs, Executive tier and the 2% reward, human capital and wages, competition, Kirkland Signature) — FY2025 · publ. October 8, 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedWalmart sees 280 million customers a week and converts a small fraction of them into members; Costco sees a fraction of that and converts nearly all of them.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - Item 1 Business and Item 2 Properties (approximately 280 million customers a week across more than 10,900 stores in 19 countries; 2.1 million associates, 1.6 million in the U.S.; 4,611 Walmart U.S. retail units of which 3,728 owned, 601 Sam's Clubs of which 464 owned, 5,743 international stores of which 1,486 owned; 3,566 supercenters at 633,724 thousand square feet, 351 discount stores at 36,609, 694 neighborhood markets and small formats at 36,609/28,375 with a 42,000 average; 192 U.S. and 179 international distribution facilities, 149 owned; pickup and delivery at over 8,400 locations globally; EDLP and EDLC; private brands; competition; Flipkart and PhonePe majority stakes in 2018) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedWatch membership and other income, which has gone from $5,488 million to $6,750 million in two years.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 22, 2026