✦ What the Thirty Billion Is ForNarrow moat

Walmart (WMT) — the future bets

Walmart declined to buy its shares at 13 times earnings and authorised $30 billion at 38.

In February 2026 Walmart's board approved a new $30.0 billion share repurchase authorisation with no expiration date, replacing a $20.0 billion programme from November 2022 that had $4.0 billion left1.

Fiscal 2026 capital returns against what the business generated ($bn)$41.6bnOperating cash flow$26.6bnCapital expenditure$14.9bnFree cash flow$15.6bnDividends and buybacksA new $30.0bn repurchase authorisation was approved in February 2026.
Walmart returned more than it generated, funded by a widening working capital deficit — and authorised $30 billion more at the most expensive valuation in its history.

That is a considered statement about value from a company that has historically been cautious with buybacks. Walmart repurchased $8,080 million of stock in fiscal 2026, retiring 85 million shares at an average of about $95, and paid $7,507 million of dividends — $15,587 million returned against free cash flow of $14,923 million2. The company returned more than it generated, funded by a working capital deficit that widened to $22.6 billion and short-term borrowings that more than doubled to $6,596 million3.

Two readings are available and both are defensible. The generous one is that Walmart's free cash flow is depressed by a capital programme — $26,642 million against $14,203 million of depreciation4 — that will end, and that buying shares through it is exactly what a confident board does. The sceptical one is that a company trading at about 38 times earnings5 is buying its own stock at the most expensive valuation in its history, having declined to do so at 13 times.

The dividend is the steadier signal. It rose to $0.99 a share for fiscal 2027 from $0.94, paid in four instalments of $0.24756, continuing a record of annual increases that stretches back decades and costs about $7.9 billion a year.

There is a third use of the money that the authorisation implicitly rejects: a large acquisition. Walmart's recent purchases have been small and strategic — VIZIO at $2.3 billion being the largest in years.

Watch free cash flow against shareholder returns. Fiscal 2026 was $14,923 million against $15,587 million7. Two or three more years of that and the buyback is being funded by the balance sheet rather than by the business.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

The authorisation is three times the size of its predecessor and the dividend record is unbroken, but shareholder returns exceeded free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and the buying is happening at the most expensive valuation in the company's history. This is capital allocation holding steady rather than improving.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Free cash flow against shareholder returns
$14,923M against $15,587M

Walmart returned more than it generated in fiscal 2026, funded by a widening working capital deficit and short-term borrowings, while authorising a new $30 billion buyback at the most expensive valuation in its history. Two or three more years of that and the buyback is balance-sheet funded.

Source: Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIn February 2026 Walmart's board approved a new $30.0 billion share repurchase authorisation with no expiration date, replacing a $20.0 billion programme from November 2022 that had $4.0 billion left.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - Item 1A Risk Factors and Item 5 (the eCommerce concentration and AI-enabled platform risk factor; five-year cumulative total return with $100 invested on February 1, 2021 worth $272.28 in Walmart against $201.03 in the S&P 500 and $164.12 in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retailing Index; the $20.0 billion November 2022 repurchase programme with $4.0 billion remaining and the new $30.0 billion authorisation approved February 2026) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcWalmart repurchased $8,080 million of stock in fiscal 2026, retiring 85 million shares at an average of about $95, and paid $7,507 million of dividends — $15,587 million returned against free cash flow of $14,923 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from figures in Walmart's own filings: global eCommerce of about $150.4 billion (Walmart U.S. $99.6B + International $35.8B + Sam's Club $15.0B) against $120.9 billion, a $29.5 billion increase against a $31,875M rise in net sales ($706,413M against $674,538M), about 92%; Walmart U.S. selling floor of 698.7 million square feet (633,724 + 36,609 + 28,375 thousand) and net sales per store of $104.7 million ($482,975M over 4,611 stores); operating margin 4.18% ($29,825M/$713,163M) against 4.31% ($27,012M/$648,125M); net margin 3.07%; gross profit rate 24.2% ($171,018M/$706,413M); grocery 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales ($285,482M/$482,975M) against 59.8% ($264,210M/$441,817M) and grocery growth of 3.4%; general merchandise to grocery ratio 0.40 against 0.43; health and wellness +26.7% ($54,898M to $69,547M); payables less inventories $4,210M ($63,061M less $58,851M); rent 0.34% of revenue ($2,434M/$713,163M); capital expenditure 64% of operating cash flow ($26,642M/$41,565M); a 1% overrun on $147,943M of expense is $1,479M; eCommerce penetration 27.5% international ($35.8B/$130,423M) and 20.6% at Walmart U.S. ($99.6B/$482,975M); shareholder returns $15,587M ($7,507M dividends plus $8,080M repurchases) against $14,923M of free cash flow; Q2 FY2027 net income attributable down 9.4% ($6,366M against $7,026M); Walmart U.S. comparable sales of about 3.9% excluding the 125 basis point pharmacy headwind — FY2024-Q2 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company returned more than it generated, funded by a working capital deficit that widened to $22.6 billion and short-term borrowings that more than doubled to $6,596 million.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - Item 7 MD&A (Walmart U.S. comparable sales +4.3% with eCommerce contributing approximately 4.3 percentage points; return on assets 8.2% and return on investment 15.1% against 15.5%; net cash provided by operating activities $41,565M, payments for property and equipment $26,642M, free cash flow $14,923M against $12,660M and $15,120M; rent $2,434M; cash $10.7 billion and a $22.6 billion working capital deficit; membership income commentary) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe generous one is that Walmart's free cash flow is depressed by a capital programme — $26,642 million against $14,203 million of depreciation — that will end, and that buying shares through it is exactly what a confident board does.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - Item 7 MD&A (Walmart U.S. comparable sales +4.3% with eCommerce contributing approximately 4.3 percentage points; return on assets 8.2% and return on investment 15.1% against 15.5%; net cash provided by operating activities $41,565M, payments for property and equipment $26,642M, free cash flow $14,923M against $12,660M and $15,120M; rent $2,434M; cash $10.7 billion and a $22.6 billion working capital deficit; membership income commentary) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe sceptical one is that a company trading at about 38 times earnings is buying its own stock at the most expensive valuation in its history, having declined to do so at 13 times.
    Market data (stockanalysis.com) - $105.73 a share, ~$838.8B market cap, ~38x trailing and ~35x forward earnings, ~1.14x sales, 0.94% dividend yield, 52-week range $98.88-$135.16; fiscal-year-end market capitalisations back to fiscal 2016 — September 10, 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt rose to $0.99 a share for fiscal 2027 from $0.94, paid in four instalments of $0.2475, continuing a record of annual increases that stretches back decades and costs about $7.9 billion a year.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedFiscal 2026 was $14,923 million against $15,587 million.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - Item 7 MD&A (Walmart U.S. comparable sales +4.3% with eCommerce contributing approximately 4.3 percentage points; return on assets 8.2% and return on investment 15.1% against 15.5%; net cash provided by operating activities $41,565M, payments for property and equipment $26,642M, free cash flow $14,923M against $12,660M and $15,120M; rent $2,434M; cash $10.7 billion and a $22.6 billion working capital deficit; membership income commentary) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 22, 2026