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⚠ Consumption Can Fall as Well as RiseLow threat

Salesforce (CRM) — threat to the moat

Salesforce's move to usage pricing answers seat compression but, in its own words, means revenue could decline if customers use less.

A subscription bills the same amount whether the customer uses it or not; consumption does not. Salesforce's own risk factors say so: "If customer usage of consumption-based offerings is below expected levels, our revenue could decline."1 It also names "the increased prevalence of consumption-based pricing models" among the things that can raise attrition2.

Seat and consumption pricing at SalesforceSeats: billsannually in advanceSeats: falls whencustomers cut users at renewalConsumption: billson agentic work units usedConsumption: falls whenusage is below expected levelsWork units, Q2 FY20273.2 billionSalesforce Form 10-K FY2026 risk factors; Q2 FY2027 results release
One risk swapped for another.

The shift trades one risk for another. Seat compression, the danger that agents replace users, is what consumption pricing is meant to answer. But usage revenue is more volatile, and customers can cut usage in a quarter where they could not cut a contract until renewal.

The current-RPO figure, which guides the next twelve months, may understate future revenue if more of it is billed on use, and overstate it if usage disappoints. The third-quarter guide for current RPO growth of "Approximately 14%"3 is still mostly seats.

If Salesforce begins to disclose consumption revenue and it falls quarter on quarter, the new model will have shown its downside before its upside.

References
  1. ReportedSalesforce's own risk factors say so: "If customer usage of consumption-based offerings is below expected levels, our revenue could decline." It also names "the increased prevalence of consumption-based pricing models" among the things that can raise attrition.
    Salesforce Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: competition, AI-native rivals, attrition, consumption pricing, infrastructure and investments. — FY2026 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedSalesforce's own risk factors say so: "If customer usage of consumption-based offerings is below expected levels, our revenue could decline." It also names "the increased prevalence of consumption-based pricing models" among the things that can raise attrition.
    Salesforce Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: competition, AI-native rivals, attrition, consumption pricing, infrastructure and investments. — FY2026 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe third-quarter guide for current RPO growth of "Approximately 14%" is still mostly seats.
    Salesforce second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, EPS, RPO, AI metrics, the two new revenue categories, balance sheet and fiscal 2027 guidance - third-quarter and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026