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✦ The $63 Billion TargetNarrow moat

Salesforce (CRM) — the future bets

Salesforce targets $63 billion of revenue by fiscal 2030, about 11% a year, while organic growth ran near 6% in the latest quarter and the rest depends on deals.

Salesforce has put a number on its future. The fiscal 2026 results raised "full year FY30 revenue target to $63 billion including Informatica"1, and the Investor Day showed "$63B+" with the note that "Targets include the impact of Informatica and additional announced M&A to date"2. The deck says the target implies "a 11%+ FY26 to FY30 compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) including Informatica"3.

Salesforce revenue and the fiscal 2030 target ($bn)26.5FY202234.9FY202441.5FY202646.25FY2027 guide63FY2030 targetSalesforce Forms 10-K; Q2 FY2027 guidance midpoint; Investor Day 2026 target
About 11% a year to reach the target, deals included.

The path is set out in milestones: "The 30Bs 3 YEARS The 40Bs 2 YEARS The 50Bs 2 YEARS"4. Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided at $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion5. From the top of that range, reaching $63 billion requires about 10.7% a year for three years6.

The target includes purchases. Informatica adds slightly above three points to fiscal 20277, and Contentful and Fin are counted. Organic growth was about 6.4% in the second quarter of fiscal 20278, so the plan needs either faster organic growth or more deals.

The target matters for the moat because it is what the share price and the buyback assume. A company growing at 6% to 8% organically and buying the rest is a different business from one growing at 11% on its own.

The target leans on a forecast about the market. The Investor Day cited Gartner research for the claim that "Software spend doubles by 2030"9, with AI-related software growing far faster than the rest. If the market doubles, 11% a year is market growth, not share gain.

The checkpoint is fiscal 2028. If revenue that year is below about $51 billion, the target will need acquisitions the company has not yet announced.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

FY2027 guide $46.1bn-$46.4bn; target unchanged.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue guidance midpoint, current fiscal year
$46.25bn (FY2027, August 2026), from $46.0bn in February

The first step on the $63bn path; a cut would make the target depend on new acquisitions.

Source: Salesforce Q2 FY2027 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe fiscal 2026 results raised "full year FY30 revenue target to $63 billion including Informatica", and the Investor Day showed "$63B+" with the note that "Targets include the impact of Informatica and additional announced M&A to date".
    Salesforce fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - margins, cash flow, capital returns, the $50 billion repurchase authorisation, the dividend increase, Agentforce ARR and fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2030 targets. — FY2026 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe fiscal 2026 results raised "full year FY30 revenue target to $63 billion including Informatica", and the Investor Day showed "$63B+" with the note that "Targets include the impact of Informatica and additional announced M&A to date".
    Salesforce Investor Day presentation at Dreamforce, 16 September 2026, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2030 framework, clouds per customer, annual order value by cloud, AI customer cohort, ARR uplift scenarios, Slack, M&A framework, the accelerated share repurchase and the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation for fiscal 2022-2026. — September 2026 · publ. 16 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe deck says the target implies "a 11%+ FY26 to FY30 compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) including Informatica".
    Salesforce Investor Day presentation at Dreamforce, 16 September 2026, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2030 framework, clouds per customer, annual order value by cloud, AI customer cohort, ARR uplift scenarios, Slack, M&A framework, the accelerated share repurchase and the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation for fiscal 2022-2026. — September 2026 · publ. 16 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe path is set out in milestones: "The 30Bs 3 YEARS The 40Bs 2 YEARS The 50Bs 2 YEARS".
    Salesforce Investor Day presentation at Dreamforce, 16 September 2026, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2030 framework, clouds per customer, annual order value by cloud, AI customer cohort, ARR uplift scenarios, Slack, M&A framework, the accelerated share repurchase and the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation for fiscal 2022-2026. — September 2026 · publ. 16 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFiscal 2027 revenue is guided at $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion.
    Salesforce second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, EPS, RPO, AI metrics, the two new revenue categories, balance sheet and fiscal 2027 guidance - third-quarter and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcFrom the top of that range, reaching $63 billion requires about 10.7% a year for three years.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Salesforce reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2016 6,667.2 / 5,373.6 - 1 = +24.1%; FY2021 21,252 / 17,098 - 1 = +24.3%; FY2022 26,492 / 21,252 - 1 = +24.7%; FY2023 31,352 / 26,492 - 1 = +18.3%; FY2024 34,857 / 31,352 - 1 = +11.2%; FY2025 37,895 / 34,857 - 1 = +8.7%; FY2026 41,525 / 37,895 - 1 = +9.6%; FY2026 without Informatica (41,525 - 399) / 37,895 - 1 = +8.5%; Q2 FY2027 reported 11,345 / 10,236 - 1 = +10.8%, without Informatica (11,345 - 456) / 10,236 - 1 = +6.4%; Q3 FY2027 guide 11% to 12% less slightly above 4 points of Informatica = roughly 7% to 8% organic; revenue increase FY2023 to FY2026 41,525 - 31,352 = 10,173, about $10.2bn; trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 41,525 - 20,065 + 22,478 = 43,938; net income 7,457 - 3,428 + 5,633 = 9,662; Q1 FY2027 revenue 22,478 - 11,345 = 11,133; fiscal 2027 revenue guidance midpoint (45,800 + 46,200) / 2 = 46,000 in February and (46,100 + 46,400) / 2 = 46,250 in August, 46,250 / 46,000 - 1 = +0.5%; FY2030 target 63,000: (63,000 / 46,400) ^ (1/3) - 1 = 10.7% a year; 46,400 times 1.107 = about 51,400 in FY2028. Revenue lines: Sales FY2016-FY2026 9,028 / 2,699.0 = 3.3 times, (3.34) ^ (1/10) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Sales growth FY2022 5,989 / 5,191 - 1 = 15.4%, FY2023 6,831 / 5,989 - 1 = 14.1%, FY2024 7,580 / 6,831 - 1 = 11.0%, FY2025 8,322 / 7,580 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,028 / 8,322 - 1 = 8.5%; Sales share of subscription revenue FY2016 2,699.0 / 6,205.6 = 43.5%, FY2026 9,028 / 39,388 = 22.9%, of total revenue 9,028 / 41,525 = 21.7%. Service FY2016-FY2026 9,818 / 1,817.8 = 5.4 times, 18.4% a year; Service growth FY2022 6,474 / 5,377 - 1 = 20.4%, FY2023 7,369 / 6,474 - 1 = 13.8%, FY2024 8,245 / 7,369 - 1 = 11.9%, FY2025 9,054 / 8,245 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,818 / 9,054 - 1 = 8.4%; Service share of revenue 9,818 / 41,525 = 23.6%. Platform, Slack and Other growth FY2018 1,913 / 1,433 - 1 = 33.5%, FY2019 2,854 / 1,913 - 1 = 49.2%, FY2021 3,324 / 2,787 - 1 = 19.3%, FY2022 4,509 / 3,324 - 1 = 35.6%, FY2023 5,967 / 4,509 - 1 = 32.3%, FY2024 6,611 / 5,967 - 1 = 10.8%, FY2025 7,247 / 6,611 - 1 = 9.6%, FY2026 8,882 / 7,247 - 1 = 22.6%, without Informatica (8,882 - 388) / 7,247 - 1 = 17.2%. Data 360, Headless Platform and Other Q2 FY2027 3,618 / 3,008 - 1 = 20.3%, without Informatica (3,618 - 440) / 3,008 - 1 = 5.7%. Marketing and Commerce FY2016-FY2026 5,428 / 654.1 = 8.3 times, 23.6% a year; growth FY2018 1,382 / 947 - 1 = 45.9%, FY2019 1,898 / 1,382 - 1 = 37.3%, FY2020 2,506 / 1,898 - 1 = 32.0%, FY2021 3,133 / 2,506 - 1 = 25.0%, FY2022 3,902 / 3,133 - 1 = 24.5%, FY2023 4,516 / 3,902 - 1 = 15.7%, FY2024 4,912 / 4,516 - 1 = 8.8%, FY2025 5,281 / 4,912 - 1 = 7.5%, FY2026 5,428 / 5,281 - 1 = 2.8%. Integration and Analytics growth FY2022 3,783 / 2,951 - 1 = 28.2%, FY2023 4,338 / 3,783 - 1 = 14.7%, FY2024 5,189 / 4,338 - 1 = 19.6%, FY2025 5,775 / 5,189 - 1 = 11.3%, FY2026 6,232 / 5,775 - 1 = 7.9%; FY2021-FY2026 (6,232 / 2,951) ^ (1/5) - 1 = 16.1% a year; share of subscription revenue FY2025 5,775 / 35,679 = 16.2%, FY2026 6,232 / 39,388 = 15.8%; growth less Sales growth FY2024 20% - 11% = +9 points, FY2026 8% - 8% = 0 points; revenue per dollar paid 6,232 / (6,425 + 14,845 = 21,270) = 0.29. Subscription and support growth FY2026 39,388 / 35,679 - 1 = 10.4%. Sales plus Service 9,028 + 9,818 = 18,846, 18,846 / 39,388 = 47.9% of subscription revenue. Sales growth FY2024-FY2026: 11.0%, 9.8%, 8.5%; Service 11.9%, 9.8%, 8.4%. Professional services: share of revenue FY2016 461.6 / 6,667.2 = 6.9%; FY2020 1,055 / 17,098 = 6.2%; FY2022 1,835 / 26,492 = 6.9%; FY2023 2,331 / 31,352 = 7.4%; FY2025 2,216 / 37,895 = 5.8%; FY2026 2,137 / 41,525 = 5.1%; Q2 FY2026 546 / 10,236 = 5.3%; Q2 FY2027 525 / 11,345 = 4.6%. Gross margin (revenue less cost, over revenue): FY2017 (638 - 617) / 638 = 3.3%, FY2018 (774 - 740) / 774 = 4.4%, FY2019 (869 - 847) / 869 = 2.5%, FY2020 (1,055 - 1,037) / 1,055 = 1.7%, FY2021 (1,276 - 1,284) / 1,276 = -0.6%, FY2022 (1,835 - 1,967) / 1,835 = -7.2%, FY2023 (2,331 - 2,539) / 2,331 = -8.9%, FY2024 (2,320 - 2,364) / 2,320 = -1.9%, FY2025 (2,216 - 2,445) / 2,216 = -10.3%, FY2026 (2,137 - 2,474) / 2,137 = -15.8%; Q2 FY2026 (546 - 597) / 546 = -9.3%; Q2 FY2027 (525 - 628) / 525 = -19.6%. Subscription and support gross margin: FY2020 (16,043 - 3,198) / 16,043 = 80.1%, FY2023 (29,021 - 5,821) / 29,021 = 79.9%, FY2025 (35,679 - 6,198) / 35,679 = 82.6%, FY2026 (39,388 - 6,796) / 39,388 = 82.7%; Q2 FY2026 (9,690 - 1,645) / 9,690 = 83.0%; Q2 FY2027 (10,820 - 2,021) / 10,820 = 81.3%. Margins and costs: GAAP operating margin = income from operations over revenue: FY2016 114.9 / 6,667.2 = 1.7%; FY2017 218 / 8,437 = 2.6%; FY2018 454 / 10,540 = 4.3%; FY2019 535 / 13,282 = 4.0%; FY2020 297 / 17,098 = 1.7%; FY2021 455 / 21,252 = 2.1%; FY2022 548 / 26,492 = 2.1%; FY2023 1,030 / 31,352 = 3.3%; FY2024 5,011 / 34,857 = 14.4%; FY2025 7,205 / 37,895 = 19.0%; FY2026 8,331 / 41,525 = 20.1%; operating income FY2026 over FY2023 8,331 / 1,030 = 8.1 times. Non-GAAP operating margin FY2015 574.1 / 5,373.6 = 10.7%; FY2016 830.0 / 6,667.2 = 12.4%. Marketing and sales over revenue FY2022 11,855 / 26,492 = 44.7%; FY2023 13,526 / 31,352 = 43.1%; FY2024 12,877 / 34,857 = 36.9%; FY2025 13,257 / 37,895 = 35.0%; FY2026 14,345 / 41,525 = 34.5%; marketing and sales growth FY2026 14,345 / 13,257 - 1 = 8.2%. Stock-based compensation over revenue FY2015 564.8 / 5,373.6 = 10.5%; FY2023 3,279 / 31,352 = 10.5%; FY2024 2,787 / 34,857 = 8.0%; FY2025 3,183 / 37,895 = 8.4%; FY2026 3,509 / 41,525 = 8.5%; unrecognised stock compensation after FY2028: 8,324 - 1,955 - 2,918 = 3,451. Amortisation of purchased intangibles FY2026 1,687 / 41,525 = 4.1%; FY2027 guide 4.4% times 46,250 = about 2,035. Restructuring FY2023-FY2026 828 + 988 + 461 + 586 = 2,863, about $2.9bn. Employees 83,334 - 76,453 = 6,881, 83,334 / 76,453 - 1 = +9.0%; revenue per employee FY2025 37,895 / 76,453 = about $496,000, FY2026 41,525 / 83,334 = about $498,000. Attrition dollars: 8% times 39,388 = about 3,151, about $3.2bn; bookings needed for 10% growth about 10% + 8% = 18% of the base; revenue kept each year at about 8% attrition 100% - 8% = about 92%. Cash: free cash flow FY2026 over FY2022 14,402 / 5,283 = 2.7 times; free cash flow over revenue FY2026 14,402 / 41,525 = 34.7%; capital expenditure over revenue 594 / 41,525 = 1.4%; non-cash charges FY2026 stock compensation 3,509 + amortisation 1,687 = 5,196, about $5.2bn; interest expense Q2 FY2027 473 / 67 = 7.1 times; unearned revenue over revenue 24,317 / 41,525 = 58.6%; unearned revenue growth FY2026 24,317 / 20,743 - 1 = +17.2%; 31 July 2026 18,787 / 16,555 - 1 = +13.5%; billings and other 45,099 / 39,635 - 1 = +13.8%; accounts receivable 14,339 / 11,945 - 1 = +20.0%. Net debt: 31 January 2025 debt 8,433 less cash 8,848 and marketable securities 5,184 = net cash of 5,599, about $5.6bn; 31 January 2026 (4,000 + 10,439 = 14,439) - 7,327 - 2,238 = 4,874, about $4.9bn; 31 July 2026 39,288 - 8,310 - 3,093 = 27,885, about $27.9bn. Contracted revenue: current RPO as a share of total RPO FY2018 9.6 / 20.6 = 46.6%; FY2019 11.9 / 25.7 = 46.3%; FY2020 15.0 / 30.8 = 48.7%; FY2021 18.0 / 36.1 = 49.9%; FY2022 22.0 / 43.7 = 50.3%; FY2023 24.6 / 48.6 = 50.6%; FY2024 27.6 / 56.9 = 48.5%; FY2025 30.2 / 63.4 = 47.6%; FY2026 35.1 / 72.4 = 48.5%; 31 July 2026 33.5 / 66.3 = 50.5%; acquired RPO FY2026 2.2 / 72.4 = 3.0%. Acquisitions and shares: MuleSoft 6,425 + Tableau 14,845 + Slack 27,068 + Informatica 9,636 = 57,974, about $58.0bn; MuleSoft goodwill 4,816 / 6,425 = 75.0%, other net assets 6,425 - 4,816 - 1,279 = 330; Tableau stock 14,552 / 14,845 = 98.0%, goodwill 10,806 / 14,845 = 72.8%; Slack goodwill 21,161 / 27,068 = 78.2%, Slack goodwill over total goodwill 21,161 / 57,941 = 36.5%; Informatica goodwill 5,257 / 9,636 = 54.6%, net of cash acquired 9,636 - 1,405 = 8,231, price over cloud ARR 9,636 / 1,100 = 8.8 times; Informatica Q2 FY2027 revenue 456 times 4 = about 1,824 a year. Goodwill over total assets FY2025 51,283 / 102,928 = 49.8%; FY2026 57,941 / 112,305 = 51.6%; goodwill plus intangibles (57,941 + 6,815 = 64,756) / 112,305 = 57.7%; goodwill FY2026 over FY2015 57,941 / 3,782.7 = 15.3 times. Shares outstanding at fiscal year end (SEC XBRL cover data): 650.6 million (FY2015), 730 (FY2018), 770 (FY2019), 893 (FY2020), 989 (FY2022), 929 (FY2026); 893 / 770 - 1 = +16.0%; 989 / 650.6 - 1 = +52.0%; 823 million on 20 August 2026. Pending Contentful 1.5 + Fin 3.6 = $5.1bn; with Informatica 9.6 + 3.6 + 1.5 = $14.7bn; if the two add 400 a year, 5,100 / 400 = 12.75 times. Valuation: market value 193,150 over trailing net income 9,662 = 20.0 times, over trailing revenue 43,938 = 4.40 times; fiscal 2027 EPS guidance midpoints GAAP (7.85 + 7.93) / 2 = 7.89 in February and (10.21 + 10.25) / 2 = 10.23 in August, +29.7%; adjusted (13.11 + 13.19) / 2 = 13.15 and (16.67 + 16.71) / 2 = 16.69, +26.9%; Q2 FY2027 EPS without investment gains 4.29 - 2.43 = 1.86 against 1.96. Geography and customers: United States share 0.93 times 27,193 / 41,525 = about 61%; growth FY2026 Americas 27,193 / 25,143 - 1 = 8.2%, Europe 10,017 / 8,891 - 1 = 12.7%, Asia Pacific 4,315 / 3,861 - 1 = 11.8%; Q2 FY2027 Europe 2,764 / 2,429 - 1 = 13.8%; Agentforce ARR 1,500 / 43,938 = 3.4% of trailing revenue. Additional: subscription and support growth FY2024 32,537 / 29,021 - 1 = 12.1%; Marketing and Commerce share of subscription revenue FY2023 4,516 / 29,021 = 15.6%, FY2024 4,912 / 32,537 = 15.1%, FY2025 5,281 / 35,679 = 14.8%, FY2026 5,428 / 39,388 = 13.8%; noncurrent RPO FY2026 37.3 / 33.2 - 1 = +12.3%, current RPO 35.1 / 30.2 - 1 = +16.2%; average repurchase price FY2023 4.0bn / 28 million = about $143, FY2024 7.7bn / 36 million = about $214, FY2025 7.8bn / 30 million = $260, FY2026 12.7bn / 50 million = $254; dividends over net income FY2026 1,587 / 7,457 = 21.3%; tangible equity 31 July 2026 38,378 - 59,250 - 6,142 = -27,014, about minus $27.0bn; fiscal 2027 free cash flow at 4% to 5% growth 14,402 times 1.04 = 14,978 to 14,402 times 1.05 = 15,122, about $15.0bn to $15.1bn. Competition (IDC estimates compiled by CX Foundation): Salesforce over the next-largest vendor 2021 23.8 / 5.4 (SAP) = 4.4 times, 2025 20.0 / 4.1 (Oracle) = 4.9 times; Salesforce 23.8% - 20.0% = 3.8 points lost 2021-2025; vendors outside the top five 65.4% - 56.6% = 8.8 points gained; Oracle, Microsoft, SAP and Adobe 5.1 + 5.3 + 5.4 + 3.8 = 19.6% in 2021 and 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 + 3.4 = 14.6% in 2025, 5.0 points lost; Salesforce over Oracle 20.0 / 4.1 = 4.9 times - growth, margins, costs, people, geography and market share. — FY2015-Q2 FY2027 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Salesforce Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, the Investor Day presentation, stockanalysis market data and CX Foundation's compilation of IDC shares; each operand is stated in the source line.
  7. ReportedInformatica adds slightly above three points to fiscal 2027, and Contentful and Fin are counted.
    Salesforce second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, margins, EPS, RPO, AI metrics, the two new revenue categories, balance sheet and fiscal 2027 guidance - third-quarter and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcOrganic growth was about 6.4% in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, so the plan needs either faster organic growth or more deals.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Salesforce reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2016 6,667.2 / 5,373.6 - 1 = +24.1%; FY2021 21,252 / 17,098 - 1 = +24.3%; FY2022 26,492 / 21,252 - 1 = +24.7%; FY2023 31,352 / 26,492 - 1 = +18.3%; FY2024 34,857 / 31,352 - 1 = +11.2%; FY2025 37,895 / 34,857 - 1 = +8.7%; FY2026 41,525 / 37,895 - 1 = +9.6%; FY2026 without Informatica (41,525 - 399) / 37,895 - 1 = +8.5%; Q2 FY2027 reported 11,345 / 10,236 - 1 = +10.8%, without Informatica (11,345 - 456) / 10,236 - 1 = +6.4%; Q3 FY2027 guide 11% to 12% less slightly above 4 points of Informatica = roughly 7% to 8% organic; revenue increase FY2023 to FY2026 41,525 - 31,352 = 10,173, about $10.2bn; trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 41,525 - 20,065 + 22,478 = 43,938; net income 7,457 - 3,428 + 5,633 = 9,662; Q1 FY2027 revenue 22,478 - 11,345 = 11,133; fiscal 2027 revenue guidance midpoint (45,800 + 46,200) / 2 = 46,000 in February and (46,100 + 46,400) / 2 = 46,250 in August, 46,250 / 46,000 - 1 = +0.5%; FY2030 target 63,000: (63,000 / 46,400) ^ (1/3) - 1 = 10.7% a year; 46,400 times 1.107 = about 51,400 in FY2028. Revenue lines: Sales FY2016-FY2026 9,028 / 2,699.0 = 3.3 times, (3.34) ^ (1/10) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Sales growth FY2022 5,989 / 5,191 - 1 = 15.4%, FY2023 6,831 / 5,989 - 1 = 14.1%, FY2024 7,580 / 6,831 - 1 = 11.0%, FY2025 8,322 / 7,580 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,028 / 8,322 - 1 = 8.5%; Sales share of subscription revenue FY2016 2,699.0 / 6,205.6 = 43.5%, FY2026 9,028 / 39,388 = 22.9%, of total revenue 9,028 / 41,525 = 21.7%. Service FY2016-FY2026 9,818 / 1,817.8 = 5.4 times, 18.4% a year; Service growth FY2022 6,474 / 5,377 - 1 = 20.4%, FY2023 7,369 / 6,474 - 1 = 13.8%, FY2024 8,245 / 7,369 - 1 = 11.9%, FY2025 9,054 / 8,245 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,818 / 9,054 - 1 = 8.4%; Service share of revenue 9,818 / 41,525 = 23.6%. Platform, Slack and Other growth FY2018 1,913 / 1,433 - 1 = 33.5%, FY2019 2,854 / 1,913 - 1 = 49.2%, FY2021 3,324 / 2,787 - 1 = 19.3%, FY2022 4,509 / 3,324 - 1 = 35.6%, FY2023 5,967 / 4,509 - 1 = 32.3%, FY2024 6,611 / 5,967 - 1 = 10.8%, FY2025 7,247 / 6,611 - 1 = 9.6%, FY2026 8,882 / 7,247 - 1 = 22.6%, without Informatica (8,882 - 388) / 7,247 - 1 = 17.2%. Data 360, Headless Platform and Other Q2 FY2027 3,618 / 3,008 - 1 = 20.3%, without Informatica (3,618 - 440) / 3,008 - 1 = 5.7%. Marketing and Commerce FY2016-FY2026 5,428 / 654.1 = 8.3 times, 23.6% a year; growth FY2018 1,382 / 947 - 1 = 45.9%, FY2019 1,898 / 1,382 - 1 = 37.3%, FY2020 2,506 / 1,898 - 1 = 32.0%, FY2021 3,133 / 2,506 - 1 = 25.0%, FY2022 3,902 / 3,133 - 1 = 24.5%, FY2023 4,516 / 3,902 - 1 = 15.7%, FY2024 4,912 / 4,516 - 1 = 8.8%, FY2025 5,281 / 4,912 - 1 = 7.5%, FY2026 5,428 / 5,281 - 1 = 2.8%. Integration and Analytics growth FY2022 3,783 / 2,951 - 1 = 28.2%, FY2023 4,338 / 3,783 - 1 = 14.7%, FY2024 5,189 / 4,338 - 1 = 19.6%, FY2025 5,775 / 5,189 - 1 = 11.3%, FY2026 6,232 / 5,775 - 1 = 7.9%; FY2021-FY2026 (6,232 / 2,951) ^ (1/5) - 1 = 16.1% a year; share of subscription revenue FY2025 5,775 / 35,679 = 16.2%, FY2026 6,232 / 39,388 = 15.8%; growth less Sales growth FY2024 20% - 11% = +9 points, FY2026 8% - 8% = 0 points; revenue per dollar paid 6,232 / (6,425 + 14,845 = 21,270) = 0.29. Subscription and support growth FY2026 39,388 / 35,679 - 1 = 10.4%. Sales plus Service 9,028 + 9,818 = 18,846, 18,846 / 39,388 = 47.9% of subscription revenue. Sales growth FY2024-FY2026: 11.0%, 9.8%, 8.5%; Service 11.9%, 9.8%, 8.4%. Professional services: share of revenue FY2016 461.6 / 6,667.2 = 6.9%; FY2020 1,055 / 17,098 = 6.2%; FY2022 1,835 / 26,492 = 6.9%; FY2023 2,331 / 31,352 = 7.4%; FY2025 2,216 / 37,895 = 5.8%; FY2026 2,137 / 41,525 = 5.1%; Q2 FY2026 546 / 10,236 = 5.3%; Q2 FY2027 525 / 11,345 = 4.6%. Gross margin (revenue less cost, over revenue): FY2017 (638 - 617) / 638 = 3.3%, FY2018 (774 - 740) / 774 = 4.4%, FY2019 (869 - 847) / 869 = 2.5%, FY2020 (1,055 - 1,037) / 1,055 = 1.7%, FY2021 (1,276 - 1,284) / 1,276 = -0.6%, FY2022 (1,835 - 1,967) / 1,835 = -7.2%, FY2023 (2,331 - 2,539) / 2,331 = -8.9%, FY2024 (2,320 - 2,364) / 2,320 = -1.9%, FY2025 (2,216 - 2,445) / 2,216 = -10.3%, FY2026 (2,137 - 2,474) / 2,137 = -15.8%; Q2 FY2026 (546 - 597) / 546 = -9.3%; Q2 FY2027 (525 - 628) / 525 = -19.6%. Subscription and support gross margin: FY2020 (16,043 - 3,198) / 16,043 = 80.1%, FY2023 (29,021 - 5,821) / 29,021 = 79.9%, FY2025 (35,679 - 6,198) / 35,679 = 82.6%, FY2026 (39,388 - 6,796) / 39,388 = 82.7%; Q2 FY2026 (9,690 - 1,645) / 9,690 = 83.0%; Q2 FY2027 (10,820 - 2,021) / 10,820 = 81.3%. Margins and costs: GAAP operating margin = income from operations over revenue: FY2016 114.9 / 6,667.2 = 1.7%; FY2017 218 / 8,437 = 2.6%; FY2018 454 / 10,540 = 4.3%; FY2019 535 / 13,282 = 4.0%; FY2020 297 / 17,098 = 1.7%; FY2021 455 / 21,252 = 2.1%; FY2022 548 / 26,492 = 2.1%; FY2023 1,030 / 31,352 = 3.3%; FY2024 5,011 / 34,857 = 14.4%; FY2025 7,205 / 37,895 = 19.0%; FY2026 8,331 / 41,525 = 20.1%; operating income FY2026 over FY2023 8,331 / 1,030 = 8.1 times. Non-GAAP operating margin FY2015 574.1 / 5,373.6 = 10.7%; FY2016 830.0 / 6,667.2 = 12.4%. Marketing and sales over revenue FY2022 11,855 / 26,492 = 44.7%; FY2023 13,526 / 31,352 = 43.1%; FY2024 12,877 / 34,857 = 36.9%; FY2025 13,257 / 37,895 = 35.0%; FY2026 14,345 / 41,525 = 34.5%; marketing and sales growth FY2026 14,345 / 13,257 - 1 = 8.2%. Stock-based compensation over revenue FY2015 564.8 / 5,373.6 = 10.5%; FY2023 3,279 / 31,352 = 10.5%; FY2024 2,787 / 34,857 = 8.0%; FY2025 3,183 / 37,895 = 8.4%; FY2026 3,509 / 41,525 = 8.5%; unrecognised stock compensation after FY2028: 8,324 - 1,955 - 2,918 = 3,451. Amortisation of purchased intangibles FY2026 1,687 / 41,525 = 4.1%; FY2027 guide 4.4% times 46,250 = about 2,035. Restructuring FY2023-FY2026 828 + 988 + 461 + 586 = 2,863, about $2.9bn. Employees 83,334 - 76,453 = 6,881, 83,334 / 76,453 - 1 = +9.0%; revenue per employee FY2025 37,895 / 76,453 = about $496,000, FY2026 41,525 / 83,334 = about $498,000. Attrition dollars: 8% times 39,388 = about 3,151, about $3.2bn; bookings needed for 10% growth about 10% + 8% = 18% of the base; revenue kept each year at about 8% attrition 100% - 8% = about 92%. Cash: free cash flow FY2026 over FY2022 14,402 / 5,283 = 2.7 times; free cash flow over revenue FY2026 14,402 / 41,525 = 34.7%; capital expenditure over revenue 594 / 41,525 = 1.4%; non-cash charges FY2026 stock compensation 3,509 + amortisation 1,687 = 5,196, about $5.2bn; interest expense Q2 FY2027 473 / 67 = 7.1 times; unearned revenue over revenue 24,317 / 41,525 = 58.6%; unearned revenue growth FY2026 24,317 / 20,743 - 1 = +17.2%; 31 July 2026 18,787 / 16,555 - 1 = +13.5%; billings and other 45,099 / 39,635 - 1 = +13.8%; accounts receivable 14,339 / 11,945 - 1 = +20.0%. Net debt: 31 January 2025 debt 8,433 less cash 8,848 and marketable securities 5,184 = net cash of 5,599, about $5.6bn; 31 January 2026 (4,000 + 10,439 = 14,439) - 7,327 - 2,238 = 4,874, about $4.9bn; 31 July 2026 39,288 - 8,310 - 3,093 = 27,885, about $27.9bn. Contracted revenue: current RPO as a share of total RPO FY2018 9.6 / 20.6 = 46.6%; FY2019 11.9 / 25.7 = 46.3%; FY2020 15.0 / 30.8 = 48.7%; FY2021 18.0 / 36.1 = 49.9%; FY2022 22.0 / 43.7 = 50.3%; FY2023 24.6 / 48.6 = 50.6%; FY2024 27.6 / 56.9 = 48.5%; FY2025 30.2 / 63.4 = 47.6%; FY2026 35.1 / 72.4 = 48.5%; 31 July 2026 33.5 / 66.3 = 50.5%; acquired RPO FY2026 2.2 / 72.4 = 3.0%. Acquisitions and shares: MuleSoft 6,425 + Tableau 14,845 + Slack 27,068 + Informatica 9,636 = 57,974, about $58.0bn; MuleSoft goodwill 4,816 / 6,425 = 75.0%, other net assets 6,425 - 4,816 - 1,279 = 330; Tableau stock 14,552 / 14,845 = 98.0%, goodwill 10,806 / 14,845 = 72.8%; Slack goodwill 21,161 / 27,068 = 78.2%, Slack goodwill over total goodwill 21,161 / 57,941 = 36.5%; Informatica goodwill 5,257 / 9,636 = 54.6%, net of cash acquired 9,636 - 1,405 = 8,231, price over cloud ARR 9,636 / 1,100 = 8.8 times; Informatica Q2 FY2027 revenue 456 times 4 = about 1,824 a year. Goodwill over total assets FY2025 51,283 / 102,928 = 49.8%; FY2026 57,941 / 112,305 = 51.6%; goodwill plus intangibles (57,941 + 6,815 = 64,756) / 112,305 = 57.7%; goodwill FY2026 over FY2015 57,941 / 3,782.7 = 15.3 times. Shares outstanding at fiscal year end (SEC XBRL cover data): 650.6 million (FY2015), 730 (FY2018), 770 (FY2019), 893 (FY2020), 989 (FY2022), 929 (FY2026); 893 / 770 - 1 = +16.0%; 989 / 650.6 - 1 = +52.0%; 823 million on 20 August 2026. Pending Contentful 1.5 + Fin 3.6 = $5.1bn; with Informatica 9.6 + 3.6 + 1.5 = $14.7bn; if the two add 400 a year, 5,100 / 400 = 12.75 times. Valuation: market value 193,150 over trailing net income 9,662 = 20.0 times, over trailing revenue 43,938 = 4.40 times; fiscal 2027 EPS guidance midpoints GAAP (7.85 + 7.93) / 2 = 7.89 in February and (10.21 + 10.25) / 2 = 10.23 in August, +29.7%; adjusted (13.11 + 13.19) / 2 = 13.15 and (16.67 + 16.71) / 2 = 16.69, +26.9%; Q2 FY2027 EPS without investment gains 4.29 - 2.43 = 1.86 against 1.96. Geography and customers: United States share 0.93 times 27,193 / 41,525 = about 61%; growth FY2026 Americas 27,193 / 25,143 - 1 = 8.2%, Europe 10,017 / 8,891 - 1 = 12.7%, Asia Pacific 4,315 / 3,861 - 1 = 11.8%; Q2 FY2027 Europe 2,764 / 2,429 - 1 = 13.8%; Agentforce ARR 1,500 / 43,938 = 3.4% of trailing revenue. Additional: subscription and support growth FY2024 32,537 / 29,021 - 1 = 12.1%; Marketing and Commerce share of subscription revenue FY2023 4,516 / 29,021 = 15.6%, FY2024 4,912 / 32,537 = 15.1%, FY2025 5,281 / 35,679 = 14.8%, FY2026 5,428 / 39,388 = 13.8%; noncurrent RPO FY2026 37.3 / 33.2 - 1 = +12.3%, current RPO 35.1 / 30.2 - 1 = +16.2%; average repurchase price FY2023 4.0bn / 28 million = about $143, FY2024 7.7bn / 36 million = about $214, FY2025 7.8bn / 30 million = $260, FY2026 12.7bn / 50 million = $254; dividends over net income FY2026 1,587 / 7,457 = 21.3%; tangible equity 31 July 2026 38,378 - 59,250 - 6,142 = -27,014, about minus $27.0bn; fiscal 2027 free cash flow at 4% to 5% growth 14,402 times 1.04 = 14,978 to 14,402 times 1.05 = 15,122, about $15.0bn to $15.1bn. Competition (IDC estimates compiled by CX Foundation): Salesforce over the next-largest vendor 2021 23.8 / 5.4 (SAP) = 4.4 times, 2025 20.0 / 4.1 (Oracle) = 4.9 times; Salesforce 23.8% - 20.0% = 3.8 points lost 2021-2025; vendors outside the top five 65.4% - 56.6% = 8.8 points gained; Oracle, Microsoft, SAP and Adobe 5.1 + 5.3 + 5.4 + 3.8 = 19.6% in 2021 and 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 + 3.4 = 14.6% in 2025, 5.0 points lost; Salesforce over Oracle 20.0 / 4.1 = 4.9 times - growth, margins, costs, people, geography and market share. — FY2015-Q2 FY2027 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Salesforce Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, the Investor Day presentation, stockanalysis market data and CX Foundation's compilation of IDC shares; each operand is stated in the source line.
  9. ReportedThe Investor Day cited Gartner research for the claim that "Software spend doubles by 2030", with AI-related software growing far faster than the rest.
    Salesforce Investor Day presentation at Dreamforce, 16 September 2026, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2030 framework, clouds per customer, annual order value by cloud, AI customer cohort, ARR uplift scenarios, Slack, M&A framework, the accelerated share repurchase and the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation for fiscal 2022-2026. — September 2026 · publ. 16 September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 4, 2026