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The Long Tail: 65% of the MarketNarrow moat

Salesforce (CRM) — moat facet

Salesforce lost 3.8 points of CRM share in four years while vendors outside the top five gained 8.8: the long tail, not a giant, is taking the market.

1. Third-party estimateOn IDC's estimates as compiled by CX Foundation, Salesforce held 23.8% of the CRM market in 2021, 22.9% in 2022, 22.1% in 2023, 20.7% in 2024 and 20.0% in 2025.
   CX Foundation, 9 June 2026, IDC CRM market shares 2021-2025: Salesforce 23.8%, 22.9%, 22.1%, 20.7%, 20.0%; Oracle 5.1, 5.1, 4.7, 4.1, 4.1; Microsoft 5.3, 5.8, 5.7, 5.2, 4.0; Adobe 3.8, 3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.4; SAP 5.4, 4.7, 3.8, 3.1, 3.1; others 56.6, 57.9, 60.2, 63.5, 65.4. — 2021-2025 · publ. 9 June 2026 · source ↗
2. Third-party estimateOver the same years the share held by vendors outside the top five rose from 56.6% to 65.4%.
   CX Foundation, 9 June 2026, IDC CRM market shares 2021-2025: Salesforce 23.8%, 22.9%, 22.1%, 20.7%, 20.0%; Oracle 5.1, 5.1, 4.7, 4.1, 4.1; Microsoft 5.3, 5.8, 5.7, 5.2, 4.0; Adobe 3.8, 3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.4; SAP 5.4, 4.7, 3.8, 3.1, 3.1; others 56.6, 57.9, 60.2, 63.5, 65.4. — 2021-2025 · publ. 9 June 2026 · source ↗
3. Moat Explorer calcSalesforce lost 3.8 points; the long tail gained 8.8.
   Moat Explorer calculation from Salesforce reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2016 6,667.2 / 5,373.6 - 1 = +24.1%; FY2021 21,252 / 17,098 - 1 = +24.3%; FY2022 26,492 / 21,252 - 1 = +24.7%; FY2023 31,352 / 26,492 - 1 = +18.3%; FY2024 34,857 / 31,352 - 1 = +11.2%; FY2025 37,895 / 34,857 - 1 = +8.7%; FY2026 41,525 / 37,895 - 1 = +9.6%; FY2026 without Informatica (41,525 - 399) / 37,895 - 1 = +8.5%; Q2 FY2027 reported 11,345 / 10,236 - 1 = +10.8%, without Informatica (11,345 - 456) / 10,236 - 1 = +6.4%; Q3 FY2027 guide 11% to 12% less slightly above 4 points of Informatica = roughly 7% to 8% organic; revenue increase FY2023 to FY2026 41,525 - 31,352 = 10,173, about $10.2bn; trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 41,525 - 20,065 + 22,478 = 43,938; net income 7,457 - 3,428 + 5,633 = 9,662; Q1 FY2027 revenue 22,478 - 11,345 = 11,133; fiscal 2027 revenue guidance midpoint (45,800 + 46,200) / 2 = 46,000 in February and (46,100 + 46,400) / 2 = 46,250 in August, 46,250 / 46,000 - 1 = +0.5%; FY2030 target 63,000: (63,000 / 46,400) ^ (1/3) - 1 = 10.7% a year; 46,400 times 1.107 = about 51,400 in FY2028. Revenue lines: Sales FY2016-FY2026 9,028 / 2,699.0 = 3.3 times, (3.34) ^ (1/10) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Sales growth FY2022 5,989 / 5,191 - 1 = 15.4%, FY2023 6,831 / 5,989 - 1 = 14.1%, FY2024 7,580 / 6,831 - 1 = 11.0%, FY2025 8,322 / 7,580 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,028 / 8,322 - 1 = 8.5%; Sales share of subscription revenue FY2016 2,699.0 / 6,205.6 = 43.5%, FY2026 9,028 / 39,388 = 22.9%, of total revenue 9,028 / 41,525 = 21.7%. Service FY2016-FY2026 9,818 / 1,817.8 = 5.4 times, 18.4% a year; Service growth FY2022 6,474 / 5,377 - 1 = 20.4%, FY2023 7,369 / 6,474 - 1 = 13.8%, FY2024 8,245 / 7,369 - 1 = 11.9%, FY2025 9,054 / 8,245 - 1 = 9.8%, FY2026 9,818 / 9,054 - 1 = 8.4%; Service share of revenue 9,818 / 41,525 = 23.6%. Platform, Slack and Other growth FY2018 1,913 / 1,433 - 1 = 33.5%, FY2019 2,854 / 1,913 - 1 = 49.2%, FY2021 3,324 / 2,787 - 1 = 19.3%, FY2022 4,509 / 3,324 - 1 = 35.6%, FY2023 5,967 / 4,509 - 1 = 32.3%, FY2024 6,611 / 5,967 - 1 = 10.8%, FY2025 7,247 / 6,611 - 1 = 9.6%, FY2026 8,882 / 7,247 - 1 = 22.6%, without Informatica (8,882 - 388) / 7,247 - 1 = 17.2%. Data 360, Headless Platform and Other Q2 FY2027 3,618 / 3,008 - 1 = 20.3%, without Informatica (3,618 - 440) / 3,008 - 1 = 5.7%. Marketing and Commerce FY2016-FY2026 5,428 / 654.1 = 8.3 times, 23.6% a year; growth FY2018 1,382 / 947 - 1 = 45.9%, FY2019 1,898 / 1,382 - 1 = 37.3%, FY2020 2,506 / 1,898 - 1 = 32.0%, FY2021 3,133 / 2,506 - 1 = 25.0%, FY2022 3,902 / 3,133 - 1 = 24.5%, FY2023 4,516 / 3,902 - 1 = 15.7%, FY2024 4,912 / 4,516 - 1 = 8.8%, FY2025 5,281 / 4,912 - 1 = 7.5%, FY2026 5,428 / 5,281 - 1 = 2.8%. Integration and Analytics growth FY2022 3,783 / 2,951 - 1 = 28.2%, FY2023 4,338 / 3,783 - 1 = 14.7%, FY2024 5,189 / 4,338 - 1 = 19.6%, FY2025 5,775 / 5,189 - 1 = 11.3%, FY2026 6,232 / 5,775 - 1 = 7.9%; FY2021-FY2026 (6,232 / 2,951) ^ (1/5) - 1 = 16.1% a year; share of subscription revenue FY2025 5,775 / 35,679 = 16.2%, FY2026 6,232 / 39,388 = 15.8%; growth less Sales growth FY2024 20% - 11% = +9 points, FY2026 8% - 8% = 0 points; revenue per dollar paid 6,232 / (6,425 + 14,845 = 21,270) = 0.29. Subscription and support growth FY2026 39,388 / 35,679 - 1 = 10.4%. Sales plus Service 9,028 + 9,818 = 18,846, 18,846 / 39,388 = 47.9% of subscription revenue. Sales growth FY2024-FY2026: 11.0%, 9.8%, 8.5%; Service 11.9%, 9.8%, 8.4%. Professional services: share of revenue FY2016 461.6 / 6,667.2 = 6.9%; FY2020 1,055 / 17,098 = 6.2%; FY2022 1,835 / 26,492 = 6.9%; FY2023 2,331 / 31,352 = 7.4%; FY2025 2,216 / 37,895 = 5.8%; FY2026 2,137 / 41,525 = 5.1%; Q2 FY2026 546 / 10,236 = 5.3%; Q2 FY2027 525 / 11,345 = 4.6%. Gross margin (revenue less cost, over revenue): FY2017 (638 - 617) / 638 = 3.3%, FY2018 (774 - 740) / 774 = 4.4%, FY2019 (869 - 847) / 869 = 2.5%, FY2020 (1,055 - 1,037) / 1,055 = 1.7%, FY2021 (1,276 - 1,284) / 1,276 = -0.6%, FY2022 (1,835 - 1,967) / 1,835 = -7.2%, FY2023 (2,331 - 2,539) / 2,331 = -8.9%, FY2024 (2,320 - 2,364) / 2,320 = -1.9%, FY2025 (2,216 - 2,445) / 2,216 = -10.3%, FY2026 (2,137 - 2,474) / 2,137 = -15.8%; Q2 FY2026 (546 - 597) / 546 = -9.3%; Q2 FY2027 (525 - 628) / 525 = -19.6%. Subscription and support gross margin: FY2020 (16,043 - 3,198) / 16,043 = 80.1%, FY2023 (29,021 - 5,821) / 29,021 = 79.9%, FY2025 (35,679 - 6,198) / 35,679 = 82.6%, FY2026 (39,388 - 6,796) / 39,388 = 82.7%; Q2 FY2026 (9,690 - 1,645) / 9,690 = 83.0%; Q2 FY2027 (10,820 - 2,021) / 10,820 = 81.3%. Margins and costs: GAAP operating margin = income from operations over revenue: FY2016 114.9 / 6,667.2 = 1.7%; FY2017 218 / 8,437 = 2.6%; FY2018 454 / 10,540 = 4.3%; FY2019 535 / 13,282 = 4.0%; FY2020 297 / 17,098 = 1.7%; FY2021 455 / 21,252 = 2.1%; FY2022 548 / 26,492 = 2.1%; FY2023 1,030 / 31,352 = 3.3%; FY2024 5,011 / 34,857 = 14.4%; FY2025 7,205 / 37,895 = 19.0%; FY2026 8,331 / 41,525 = 20.1%; operating income FY2026 over FY2023 8,331 / 1,030 = 8.1 times. Non-GAAP operating margin FY2015 574.1 / 5,373.6 = 10.7%; FY2016 830.0 / 6,667.2 = 12.4%. Marketing and sales over revenue FY2022 11,855 / 26,492 = 44.7%; FY2023 13,526 / 31,352 = 43.1%; FY2024 12,877 / 34,857 = 36.9%; FY2025 13,257 / 37,895 = 35.0%; FY2026 14,345 / 41,525 = 34.5%; marketing and sales growth FY2026 14,345 / 13,257 - 1 = 8.2%. Stock-based compensation over revenue FY2015 564.8 / 5,373.6 = 10.5%; FY2023 3,279 / 31,352 = 10.5%; FY2024 2,787 / 34,857 = 8.0%; FY2025 3,183 / 37,895 = 8.4%; FY2026 3,509 / 41,525 = 8.5%; unrecognised stock compensation after FY2028: 8,324 - 1,955 - 2,918 = 3,451. Amortisation of purchased intangibles FY2026 1,687 / 41,525 = 4.1%; FY2027 guide 4.4% times 46,250 = about 2,035. Restructuring FY2023-FY2026 828 + 988 + 461 + 586 = 2,863, about $2.9bn. Employees 83,334 - 76,453 = 6,881, 83,334 / 76,453 - 1 = +9.0%; revenue per employee FY2025 37,895 / 76,453 = about $496,000, FY2026 41,525 / 83,334 = about $498,000. Attrition dollars: 8% times 39,388 = about 3,151, about $3.2bn; bookings needed for 10% growth about 10% + 8% = 18% of the base; revenue kept each year at about 8% attrition 100% - 8% = about 92%. Cash: free cash flow FY2026 over FY2022 14,402 / 5,283 = 2.7 times; free cash flow over revenue FY2026 14,402 / 41,525 = 34.7%; capital expenditure over revenue 594 / 41,525 = 1.4%; non-cash charges FY2026 stock compensation 3,509 + amortisation 1,687 = 5,196, about $5.2bn; interest expense Q2 FY2027 473 / 67 = 7.1 times; unearned revenue over revenue 24,317 / 41,525 = 58.6%; unearned revenue growth FY2026 24,317 / 20,743 - 1 = +17.2%; 31 July 2026 18,787 / 16,555 - 1 = +13.5%; billings and other 45,099 / 39,635 - 1 = +13.8%; accounts receivable 14,339 / 11,945 - 1 = +20.0%. Net debt: 31 January 2025 debt 8,433 less cash 8,848 and marketable securities 5,184 = net cash of 5,599, about $5.6bn; 31 January 2026 (4,000 + 10,439 = 14,439) - 7,327 - 2,238 = 4,874, about $4.9bn; 31 July 2026 39,288 - 8,310 - 3,093 = 27,885, about $27.9bn. Contracted revenue: current RPO as a share of total RPO FY2018 9.6 / 20.6 = 46.6%; FY2019 11.9 / 25.7 = 46.3%; FY2020 15.0 / 30.8 = 48.7%; FY2021 18.0 / 36.1 = 49.9%; FY2022 22.0 / 43.7 = 50.3%; FY2023 24.6 / 48.6 = 50.6%; FY2024 27.6 / 56.9 = 48.5%; FY2025 30.2 / 63.4 = 47.6%; FY2026 35.1 / 72.4 = 48.5%; 31 July 2026 33.5 / 66.3 = 50.5%; acquired RPO FY2026 2.2 / 72.4 = 3.0%. Acquisitions and shares: MuleSoft 6,425 + Tableau 14,845 + Slack 27,068 + Informatica 9,636 = 57,974, about $58.0bn; MuleSoft goodwill 4,816 / 6,425 = 75.0%, other net assets 6,425 - 4,816 - 1,279 = 330; Tableau stock 14,552 / 14,845 = 98.0%, goodwill 10,806 / 14,845 = 72.8%; Slack goodwill 21,161 / 27,068 = 78.2%, Slack goodwill over total goodwill 21,161 / 57,941 = 36.5%; Informatica goodwill 5,257 / 9,636 = 54.6%, net of cash acquired 9,636 - 1,405 = 8,231, price over cloud ARR 9,636 / 1,100 = 8.8 times; Informatica Q2 FY2027 revenue 456 times 4 = about 1,824 a year. Goodwill over total assets FY2025 51,283 / 102,928 = 49.8%; FY2026 57,941 / 112,305 = 51.6%; goodwill plus intangibles (57,941 + 6,815 = 64,756) / 112,305 = 57.7%; goodwill FY2026 over FY2015 57,941 / 3,782.7 = 15.3 times. Shares outstanding at fiscal year end (SEC XBRL cover data): 650.6 million (FY2015), 730 (FY2018), 770 (FY2019), 893 (FY2020), 989 (FY2022), 929 (FY2026); 893 / 770 - 1 = +16.0%; 989 / 650.6 - 1 = +52.0%; 823 million on 20 August 2026. Pending Contentful 1.5 + Fin 3.6 = $5.1bn; with Informatica 9.6 + 3.6 + 1.5 = $14.7bn; if the two add 400 a year, 5,100 / 400 = 12.75 times. Valuation: market value 193,150 over trailing net income 9,662 = 20.0 times, over trailing revenue 43,938 = 4.40 times; fiscal 2027 EPS guidance midpoints GAAP (7.85 + 7.93) / 2 = 7.89 in February and (10.21 + 10.25) / 2 = 10.23 in August, +29.7%; adjusted (13.11 + 13.19) / 2 = 13.15 and (16.67 + 16.71) / 2 = 16.69, +26.9%; Q2 FY2027 EPS without investment gains 4.29 - 2.43 = 1.86 against 1.96. Geography and customers: United States share 0.93 times 27,193 / 41,525 = about 61%; growth FY2026 Americas 27,193 / 25,143 - 1 = 8.2%, Europe 10,017 / 8,891 - 1 = 12.7%, Asia Pacific 4,315 / 3,861 - 1 = 11.8%; Q2 FY2027 Europe 2,764 / 2,429 - 1 = 13.8%; Agentforce ARR 1,500 / 43,938 = 3.4% of trailing revenue. Additional: subscription and support growth FY2024 32,537 / 29,021 - 1 = 12.1%; Marketing and Commerce share of subscription revenue FY2023 4,516 / 29,021 = 15.6%, FY2024 4,912 / 32,537 = 15.1%, FY2025 5,281 / 35,679 = 14.8%, FY2026 5,428 / 39,388 = 13.8%; noncurrent RPO FY2026 37.3 / 33.2 - 1 = +12.3%, current RPO 35.1 / 30.2 - 1 = +16.2%; average repurchase price FY2023 4.0bn / 28 million = about $143, FY2024 7.7bn / 36 million = about $214, FY2025 7.8bn / 30 million = $260, FY2026 12.7bn / 50 million = $254; dividends over net income FY2026 1,587 / 7,457 = 21.3%; tangible equity 31 July 2026 38,378 - 59,250 - 6,142 = -27,014, about minus $27.0bn; fiscal 2027 free cash flow at 4% to 5% growth 14,402 times 1.04 = 14,978 to 14,402 times 1.05 = 15,122, about $15.0bn to $15.1bn. Competition (IDC estimates compiled by CX Foundation): Salesforce over the next-largest vendor 2021 23.8 / 5.4 (SAP) = 4.4 times, 2025 20.0 / 4.1 (Oracle) = 4.9 times; Salesforce 23.8% - 20.0% = 3.8 points lost 2021-2025; vendors outside the top five 65.4% - 56.6% = 8.8 points gained; Oracle, Microsoft, SAP and Adobe 5.1 + 5.3 + 5.4 + 3.8 = 19.6% in 2021 and 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 + 3.4 = 14.6% in 2025, 5.0 points lost; Salesforce over Oracle 20.0 / 4.1 = 4.9 times - growth, margins, costs, people, geography and market share. — FY2015-Q2 FY2027 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Salesforce Forms 10-K, 10-Q and results releases, SEC XBRL, the Investor Day presentation, stockanalysis market data and CX Foundation's compilation of IDC shares; each operand is stated in the source line.
4. Third-party estimateCX Foundation credits "vendors like HubSpot and Zoho" for the trend, companies that began with smaller businesses and moved up.
   CX Foundation, 9 June 2026, IDC CRM market shares 2021-2025: Salesforce 23.8%, 22.9%, 22.1%, 20.7%, 20.0%; Oracle 5.1, 5.1, 4.7, 4.1, 4.1; Microsoft 5.3, 5.8, 5.7, 5.2, 4.0; Adobe 3.8, 3.6, 3.5, 3.4, 3.4; SAP 5.4, 4.7, 3.8, 3.1, 3.1; others 56.6, 57.9, 60.2, 63.5, 65.4. — 2021-2025 · publ. 9 June 2026 · source ↗
5. ReportedSalesforce's own 10-K describes the type in its list of competitors: "software companies that provide their product or service free of charge" or "only charge a premium for advanced features and functionality, as well as companies that offer solutions that are sold without a direct sales organization".
   Salesforce Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: competition, AI-native rivals, attrition, consumption pricing, infrastructure and investments. — FY2026 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
6. ReportedNone can displace Salesforce at a large enterprise, where attrition near eight percent shows customers staying.
   Salesforce Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 January 2026) - remaining performance obligations, unearned revenue and attrition. — FY2026 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
7. Third-party estimateSalesforce still ranks first, for a 13th year.
   Salesforce news, 4 June 2026: IDC Worldwide Semiannual Software Tracker ranks Salesforce first in CRM for a 13th year with 20.0% in 2025; first in Sales for a 14th year, Customer Service a 13th, Marketing a seventh and Integration a fourth; second in Agent Build and Deploy with 17.5%. — 2025 · publ. 4 June 2026 · source ↗

• Salesforce Form 10-K, FY2026