AI-generated analysis, not investment advice. The articles are written by AI, edited, and checked against company filings — but the judgements are opinions and the figures go stale. How this is made · Terms

⚠ Seventy Dollars to One Hundred and ThirtyModerate threat

Bending Spoons (BSP) — threat to the moat

Evernote's price went up 86% within four months of the purchase, and the only published check on whether that was too far is a retention number the company calculates itself.

1. ReportedIn April 2023, months after the acquisition, Bending Spoons lifted the annual personal subscription price to $130 from $70, an increase of 86%.
   CNBC, Bending Spoons wants to revive software castoffs, and Berkshire is investing - the company's statement that it had not been outbid for a target in several years, the comparison with Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners, Luca Ferrari on enterprise software valuations and on the share of revenue from professional businesses, the Evernote price history and Mizuho's and Nick Mehta's comments. — October 2026 · publ. 17 October 2026 · source ↗
2. Moat Explorer calcIn April 2023, months after the acquisition, Bending Spoons lifted the annual personal subscription price to $130 from $70, an increase of 86%.
   Moat Explorer calculation from figures reported in Bending Spoons' Form 424B4 prospectus, its Q2 2026 Form 6-K exhibits and the market data cited beside them ($ thousands unless stated). Revenue growth: 671,053 / 387,067 - 1 = 73.4%; 1,306,404 / 671,053 - 1 = 94.7%; 2,800,000 / 1,306,404 - 1 = 114% on the FY2026 guidance midpoint (2,780,000 + 2,820,000) / 2 = 2,800,000; Adjusted Operating Income guidance midpoint (1,460,000 + 1,510,000) / 2 = 1,485,000. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: revenue 1,306,404 + 1,305,476 - 570,046 = 2,041,834; net income (204) + 204,433 - (46,953) = 251,182; operating cash flow 290,600 + 254,240 - 87,733 = 457,107; net margin 251,182 / 2,041,834 = 12.3%. Revenue by type, trailing twelve months: subscription 1,213,194 + 1,047,991 - 521,571 = 1,739,614; advertising 67,253 + 158,811 - 35,791 = 190,273; other 25,958 + 98,674 - 12,684 = 111,948; sum 2,041,835. Subscription share 1,739,614 / 2,041,834 = 85.2%. Q2 2026 revenue mix: subscription 540,790 / 704,155 = 76.8%; advertising 88,637 / 704,155 = 12.6%; other 74,728 / 704,155 = 10.6%. Q2 growth by line: 540,790 / 282,138 - 1 = 91.7%; 88,637 / 19,285 - 1 = 359.6%; 74,728 / 9,676 - 1 = 672.1%. FY2025 by line: 1,213,194 / 616,418 - 1 = 96.8%; 67,253 / 52,690 - 1 = 27.6%; 25,958 / 1,945 = 13.3 times. Gross margin: 236,518 / 387,067 = 61.1%; 428,851 / 671,053 = 63.9%; 857,270 / 1,306,404 = 65.6%; 463,621 / 704,155 = 65.8%; 871,825 / 1,305,476 = 66.8%. Operating margin: 84,267 / 387,067 = 21.8%; 127,352 / 671,053 = 19.0%; 277,851 / 1,306,404 = 21.3%; 240,251 / 704,155 = 34.1%. General and administrative expense 326,953 / 1,306,404 = 25.0% of 2025 revenue. Costs excluded from Adjusted Operating Income in 2025: 150,532 + 85,466 + 78,607 + 20,790 = 335,395, which is also 613,247 - 277,851 = 335,396. The same four lines across 2023, 2024 and 2025: (13,514 + 848 + 33,809) + (51,792 + 31,952 + 85,947) + (78,607 + 85,466 + 150,532) = 48,171 + 169,691 + 314,605 = 532,467. Interest: 142,601 / 32,605 = 4.4 times; 108,970 / 35,733 - 1 = 205%; 142,601 / 277,851 = 51.3% of 2025 operating income; interest paid 161,153 / 254,240 = 63.4% of H1 2026 operating cash flow. Research and development 58,204 / 19,398 = 3.0 times; sales and marketing 72,679 / 30,696 = 2.4 times. Balance sheet at 30 June 2026: total debt 794,141 + 4,086,939 = 4,881,080 (415,260 + 2,255,622 = 2,670,882 at 31 December 2025); net debt 4,881,080 - 792,950 = 4,088,130; net debt / equity 4,088,130 / 1,258,412 = 3.25 times; goodwill and intangibles 4,146,212 + 2,156,607 = 6,302,819, which is 6,302,819 / 8,055,399 = 78.2% of assets; tangible book 1,258,412 - 6,302,819 = (5,044,407); goodwill 4,146,212 / 163,863 = 25.3 times the 31 December 2023 balance. Free cash flow H1 2026 254,240 - 3,969 = 250,271. Deferred revenue 583,265 / 450,499 - 1 = 29.5%. Net cash inside the two enterprise deals: Airtable equity value about 2,250 less enterprise value 1,285 = about 965 of net cash; Miro 1,790 less 1,355 = about 435; the two together 965 + 435 = about 1,400, against combined equity value 2,250 + 1,790 = about 4,040. Valuation and rail arithmetic: market value 28,289 / pro-forma FY2025 net income 22.374 = about 1,264 times earnings; store commission of 22 to 45 against Q1 2026 gross profit of 408,204 = 5.4% to 11.0%; store fee 15% to 30% against processor fees of 5% or less = three to six times. Per-unit arithmetic: trailing revenue 2,041,834 / 9,000 thousand paying customers = about $227 a year each; other revenue 74,728 / 25,958 = 2.9 times all of 2025; advertising expense at 6% of 2025 revenue 1,306,404 x 0.06 = about 78,384. Customer and per-unit arithmetic: a customer below 1% of Q2 2026 revenue of 704,155 is below 7,042, so under $7.0 million a quarter. Market value at $44.17 on 20 October 2026: 330,222,651 + 310,240,685 = 640,463,336 shares; 640,463,336 x 44.17 = $28,289 million. Trailing price-to-earnings 28,289 / 251.2 = 112.6; price-to-sales 28,289 / 2,041.8 = 13.9; enterprise value 28,289 + 4,088 = 32,377; 32,377 / 1,485 = 21.8 times guided Adjusted Operating Income; forward price-to-sales 28,289 / 2,800 = 10.1. Price against the 52-week high 44.17 / 59.50 - 1 = -25.8%; against the offering price 44.17 / 29.00 - 1 = +52.3%. Shares after the Berkshire placement 640,463,336 + 10,000,000 = 650,463,336. Berkshire's July tranche 600 / 29.00 = about 20.7 million shares, plus 10.0 million at $33.00 = about 30.7 million. New investors paid 29.00 / 1.00 = 29 times the $1.00 average price of the pre-offering equity. Votes: 310,240,685 x 5 = 1,551,203,425 against 1,551,203,425 + 324,978,625 = 1,876,182,050 total votes = 82.68%; equity 310,240,685 / 635,219,310 = 48.84%. Luca Querella's holding 310,240,685 - 234,315,380 = 75,925,305 class A shares, 75,925,305 x 5 / 1,876,182,050 = 20.2% of the votes. Geography: 201,424 / 387,067 = 52.0%; 347,942 / 671,053 = 51.9%; 642,140 / 1,306,404 = 49.2%; 434,864 / 704,155 = 61.8%; Italy 23,637 / 1,306,404 = 1.8%; revenue outside the United States in Q2 2026 704,155 - 434,864 = 269,291, 38.2%. Payment rails in Q1 2026: 0.75 x 0.33 = 24.8% of revenue through the Apple App Store or Google Play Store, 601,321 x 0.248 = about $149 million, on which a 15% to 30% fee is $22 million to $45 million; 0.75 x 0.67 = 50.3% through payment processors. Acquisitions: aggregate enterprise value 194 + 876 + 1,920 + 2,010 = $5,000 million for 2023, 2024, 2025 and Q1 2026. AOL contributed 65,500 / 141,800 = 46.2% pre-tax margin in Q1 2026 and 156 / 294 = 53.1% over six months; its FY2025 carve-out operating margin 333,610 / 633,365 = 52.7%, United States share 620,393 / 633,365 = 98.0%, purchase price 1,454,432 / 633,365 = 2.3 times carve-out revenue. Miro 1,355 / 600 = 2.3 times annual recurring revenue; Airtable 1,285 / 480 = 2.7 times; the two together 480 + 600 = about $1,080 million of annual recurring revenue. Tractive 896 - 115 = $781 million payable at closing. Pro-forma FY2025 interest 368,113 / 508,758 = 72.3% of operating income and net margin 22,374 / 2,608,496 = 0.9%. Cumulative net income attributable 2023 to 2025: 160,773 + 89,513 - 137 = 250,149. More acquisition arithmetic: average enterprise value per completed acquisition 194 / 1 = 194 (2023), 876 / 5 = 175 (2024), 1,920 / 6 = 320 (2025), 2,010 / 2 = 1,005 (Q1 2026); acquisitions closed in 2026 to 20 October = 4 (AOL, Eventbrite, Tractive, Airtable), with Miro agreed and expected to close in Q4; Airtable plus Miro enterprise value 1,285 + 1,355 = 2,640, against 480 + 600 = 1,080 of annual recurring revenue, which is more than the 671 of revenue Bending Spoons earned in all of 2024. Adjusted against reported operating income: 137,441 / 84,267 = 1.63 times (2023) and 613,247 / 277,851 = 2.21 times (2025). Cumulative revenue 2023 to 2025: 387,067 + 671,053 + 1,306,404 = 2,364,524. Interest 142,601 / 32,605 = 4.4 times. Customer tenure split, Q1 2026: 48% at five years or more less 28% at ten years or more = 20% between five and ten years, and 100% - 48% = 52% under five years. Conversion: WeTransfer 1,000,000 / 58,000,000 = 1.7%, Brightcove 1,700 / 15,000 = 11.3%, and 58,000,000 / 15,000 = about 3,900 times the user base. Mobile application stores as a share of gross accounts receivable 95% - 47% = 48 points lower over two years. Deferred revenue 583,265 / 2,041,834 = 28.6% of trailing revenue. Addressable revenue outside North America and Europe about 400 - 315 - 77 = $8 billion. People: 2,284 / 405 = 5.6 times the end-2023 headcount; Spooners 621 / 2,284 = 27.2%; hires 286 / 800,000 = 0.036% of applications; Evernote 60 / 341 - 1 = -82.4%; StreamYard 44 / 154 - 1 = -71.4%; Evernote's annual personal price 130 / 70 - 1 = +86%. Addressable market already owned 1,306 / 400,000 = 0.3%. A 10% euro move 18,821 / 1,306,404 = 1.4% of 2025 revenue - growth rates, margins, acquisition and headcount arithmetic. — 2023-2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Bending Spoons' Form 424B4 prospectus, its Q2 2026 Form 6-K exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and the cited market data; the operands are shown in the source line.
3. ReportedIt later restructured the offering, charging $100 for a starter plan and $250 for Evernote Advanced against the $170 it had been charging for the pro plan.
   CNBC, Bending Spoons wants to revive software castoffs, and Berkshire is investing - the company's statement that it had not been outbid for a target in several years, the comparison with Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners, Luca Ferrari on enterprise software valuations and on the share of revenue from professional businesses, the Evernote price history and Mizuho's and Nick Mehta's comments. — October 2026 · publ. 17 October 2026 · source ↗
4. ReportedMizuho's Lloyd Walmsley said his first reaction was that he would have to switch, and then that the company is savvy at finding products where switching costs are really high and the price isn't that high relative to the switching cost.
   CNBC, Bending Spoons wants to revive software castoffs, and Berkshire is investing - the company's statement that it had not been outbid for a target in several years, the comparison with Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners, Luca Ferrari on enterprise software valuations and on the share of revenue from professional businesses, the Evernote price history and Mizuho's and Nick Mehta's comments. — October 2026 · publ. 17 October 2026 · source ↗
5. ReportedEvernote's net revenue retention of 99% is measured after those increases, which says the base absorbed them.
   Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the Business section on customer metrics: retention, tenure, users and acquisition channels. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
6. ReportedThe company itself warns that a business's net revenue retention can fluctuate significantly over time, often as a result of monetization initiatives.
   Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the Business section on the transformation of individual acquired businesses. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
7. Third-party estimatePlayond, a mobile gaming subscription Bending Spoons ran from 2019 to March 2020, re-released games that had previously been one-off purchases under a subscription and was criticised for resetting user progress or locking users out of games they had previously bought once the licensing rights had moved.
   Wikipedia, Bending Spoons - third-party account of the sellers of the pre-2023 businesses, the Harvest repricing reported by Bloomberg News in August 2026, the Playond subscription controversy and the Immuni contact-tracing app. — 2018-2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
8. Third-party estimateIt was closed in March 2020.
   Wikipedia, Bending Spoons - third-party account of the sellers of the pre-2023 businesses, the Harvest repricing reported by Bloomberg News in August 2026, the Playond subscription controversy and the Immuni contact-tracing app. — 2018-2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
9. ReportedThe figure that would show it had gone too far is Evernote's own retention; a move from 99% toward the 87% the company reports for Remini would mean the pricing had started to cost more customers than it collected.
   Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the MD&A on how revenue is collected, the distribution platforms and key vendors. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗

• Bending Spoons Form 424B4 prospectus