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⚠ The Thousand Businesses May Be FewerModerate threat

Bending Spoons (BSP) — threat to the moat

The thousand businesses Bending Spoons says it could buy are its own estimate, and its own size filter already disqualifies most of what it looks at.

The growth case rests on a count Bending Spoons made itself. It estimates an addressable market that includes more than 1,000 businesses generating nearly $400 billion in aggregate revenue in 20251, split by size into 347 businesses at $50 million to $100 million of revenue, 476 at $100 million to $500 million, 114 at $500 million to $1 billion and 94 at $1 billion to $5 billion2.

Businesses in the stated addressable market, by 2025 revenue$100M to $500M476$50M to $100M347$500M to $1bn114$1bn to $5bn94Bending Spoons Form 424B4, Business; the company estimate totals more than 1,000
Most of the pool is mid-sized.

The company also lists the opposite possibility in its risk factors: the addressable market may prove to be smaller than it expects3. Two things would shrink it. The first is its own size filter, which already rejected most of the 2,500 opportunities it sourced in 2025 for being below its preferred revenue range4. The second is that the largest band, the 94 businesses above $1 billion of revenue, contains companies whose boards will not sell at a price that clears a 25% unlevered hurdle.

Nor is the pool refilled by anything Bending Spoons controls. It is refilled by other people's disappointments, which the company says plainly: many businesses in its addressable market lack the foundations required to fully capitalize on AI5, and that could increase certain owners' willingness to sell, and contribute to lower valuation levels6.

The count includes companies that are not for sale in any ordinary sense. Bending Spoons says it has identified more than 1,000 digital businesses, both private and public, that could be attractive acquisition targets in the future7. A listed target requires a public bid at a premium, which is a different exercise from buying a neglected division from a corporate parent, and it is the exercise it has done least often.

Watch the mid-size bands. With 476 targets between $100 million and $500 million of revenue, a run rate of six deals a year is decades of supply on paper. If the deals being announced keep moving to the largest band instead, the usable market is smaller than the count suggests.

References
  1. ReportedIt estimates an addressable market that includes more than 1,000 businesses generating nearly $400 billion in aggregate revenue in 2025, split by size into 347 businesses at $50 million to $100 million of revenue, 476 at $100 million to $500 million, 114 at $500 million to $1 billion and 94 at $1 billion to $5 billion.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt estimates an addressable market that includes more than 1,000 businesses generating nearly $400 billion in aggregate revenue in 2025, split by size into 347 businesses at $50 million to $100 million of revenue, 476 at $100 million to $500 million, 114 at $500 million to $1 billion and 94 at $1 billion to $5 billion.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company also lists the opposite possibility in its risk factors: the addressable market may prove to be smaller than it expects.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - Item 3.D risk factors and the notes on legal proceedings. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe first is its own size filter, which already rejected most of the 2,500 opportunities it sourced in 2025 for being below its preferred revenue range.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on the Playbook, return hurdles and acquisition criteria. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt is refilled by other people's disappointments, which the company says plainly: many businesses in its addressable market lack the foundations required to fully capitalize on AI, and that could increase certain owners' willingness to sell, and contribute to lower valuation levels.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt is refilled by other people's disappointments, which the company says plainly: many businesses in its addressable market lack the foundations required to fully capitalize on AI, and that could increase certain owners' willingness to sell, and contribute to lower valuation levels.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedBending Spoons says it has identified more than 1,000 digital businesses, both private and public, that could be attractive acquisition targets in the future.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 20, 2026