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✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Bending Spoons (BSP) — the future bets

Bending Spoons has bought a billion dollars of enterprise recurring revenue, arranged the money to buy more, and told shareholders the last purchase will be its own shares.

Everything ahead of Bending Spoons is a version of the same bet: that the pool of mature software businesses available at its prices is deep, and that it can keep financing purchases from it. The company says it expects to allocate almost all available capital to acquisitions for many years to come1 and to complete several acquisitions per year on average2.

2025 actual against 2026 guidance midpoints ($M)1,306Revenue 20252,800Revenue 2026 guided613Adjusted operatingincome 20251,485Adjusted operatingincome 2026 guidedQ2 2026 release; the guidance excludes Airtable, closed 4 September, and Miro
Guided to more than double, before the two largest deals.

The near-term bets are two businesses larger than anything it has bought before. Airtable closed on 4 September 2026 at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion34, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million growing over 20% year on year as of June 20265. Miro was agreed on 10 September at an enterprise value of $1.355 billion with around $600 million in annual recurring revenue, nearly 90% from business and enterprise customers6, and is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

Neither is in the guidance. The 2026 outlook of revenue of $2.78 billion to $2.82 billion and Adjusted Operating Income of $1.46 billion to $1.51 billion is based solely on the portfolio of businesses owned as of August 12, 20267, and the company said it expects to incorporate Airtable when it next reports8. The guided revenue is already more than double 20259.

The financing is the third bet and it has been arranged. Berkshire Hathaway invested $600 million at the July initial public offering by the company's own account and has agreed a further $330 million private placement of 10 million new ordinary shares at $33.001011. Moody's upgraded Bending Spoons to Ba3 from B1 and S&P to BB- from B+12, and a $1.25 billion dollar term loan add-on and a 395 million euro add-on were priced in September13.

The near-term guidance is for the third quarter as well as the year: revenue of $733 million to $745 million and Adjusted Operating Income of $380 million to $400 million14, both roughly 113% and 111% above a year earlier at the midpoints. As with the full-year figures, the outlook is based solely on the portfolio of businesses owned as of August 12, 202615, which leaves out the two largest purchases the company has ever made.

The quality of what has been bought is better than the prices suggest. Airtable is used by more than 500,000 organizations16 including 80% of the Fortune 10017, and Miro has more than 750 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue18. The Berkshire subscription agreement is also expected to contain customary registration rights provisions for the Investor19, which is the normal arrangement for an investor who may one day want to sell.

The last bet is the one the company itself names as an endpoint: perhaps our best acquisition opportunity will be the shares of our own company20. That sits a long way off, because no dividend has ever been paid and no buyback exists21. The guided revenue is the measure of whether the machine is still accelerating, and it excludes the two largest purchases in the company's history.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Airtable closed, Miro agreed, ratings upgraded, Berkshire committed $930 million.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue guided for 2026
$2.78bn to $2.82bn, excluding Airtable and Miro

The run rate before the two largest purchases are counted; a guidance cut would mean the machine has stalled.

Source: Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Airtable and Miro: A Billion Dollars of Recurring Revenue
Airtable and Miro brought about a billion dollars of recurring revenue for 2.6 billion, and Airtable is the first business Bending Spoons has bought…
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Berkshire's Nine Hundred and Thirty Million
Berkshire has agreed to put $930 million into Bending Spoons, and about $600 million of that rests on the company's own word while the rest has not…
✦ FUTURE BET 03
A Thousand Businesses and Four Hundred Billion Dollars
Bending Spoons owns about three thousandths of the market it says it could buy, which is either decades of runway or a number it made up.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
The Last Acquisition: Its Own Shares
Bending Spoons says its last and best acquisition may be its own shares, which at nearly fourteen times revenue would fail every test it applies to…
References
  1. ReportedThe company says it expects to allocate almost all available capital to acquisitions for many years to come and to complete several acquisitions per year on average.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company says it expects to allocate almost all available capital to acquisitions for many years to come and to complete several acquisitions per year on average.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAirtable closed on 4 September 2026 at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million growing over 20% year on year as of June 2026.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Airtable at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million and more than 500,000 organisations using the platform. — August 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAirtable closed on 4 September 2026 at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million growing over 20% year on year as of June 2026.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: completion of the Airtable acquisition, the first since the Nasdaq listing. — September 2026 · publ. 4 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAirtable closed on 4 September 2026 at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million growing over 20% year on year as of June 2026.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Airtable at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million and more than 500,000 organisations using the platform. — August 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedMiro was agreed on 10 September at an enterprise value of $1.355 billion with around $600 million in annual recurring revenue, nearly 90% from business and enterprise customers, and is expected to close in the fourth quarter.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Miro at an enterprise value of $1.355 billion, with annual recurring revenue of around $600 million, 250,000 organisations and nearly 4 million paying users, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe 2026 outlook of revenue of $2.78 billion to $2.82 billion and Adjusted Operating Income of $1.46 billion to $1.51 billion is based solely on the portfolio of businesses owned as of August 12, 2026, and the company said it expects to incorporate Airtable when it next reports.
    Bending Spoons second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 - organic revenue growth, non-GAAP measures, net debt and leverage, the business transformations and guidance for the third quarter and the full year. — Q2 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe 2026 outlook of revenue of $2.78 billion to $2.82 billion and Adjusted Operating Income of $1.46 billion to $1.51 billion is based solely on the portfolio of businesses owned as of August 12, 2026, and the company said it expects to incorporate Airtable when it next reports.
    Bending Spoons second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 - organic revenue growth, non-GAAP measures, net debt and leverage, the business transformations and guidance for the third quarter and the full year. — Q2 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcThe guided revenue is already more than double 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from figures reported in Bending Spoons' Form 424B4 prospectus, its Q2 2026 Form 6-K exhibits and the market data cited beside them ($ thousands unless stated). Revenue growth: 671,053 / 387,067 - 1 = 73.4%; 1,306,404 / 671,053 - 1 = 94.7%; 2,800,000 / 1,306,404 - 1 = 114% on the FY2026 guidance midpoint (2,780,000 + 2,820,000) / 2 = 2,800,000; Adjusted Operating Income guidance midpoint (1,460,000 + 1,510,000) / 2 = 1,485,000. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: revenue 1,306,404 + 1,305,476 - 570,046 = 2,041,834; net income (204) + 204,433 - (46,953) = 251,182; operating cash flow 290,600 + 254,240 - 87,733 = 457,107; net margin 251,182 / 2,041,834 = 12.3%. Revenue by type, trailing twelve months: subscription 1,213,194 + 1,047,991 - 521,571 = 1,739,614; advertising 67,253 + 158,811 - 35,791 = 190,273; other 25,958 + 98,674 - 12,684 = 111,948; sum 2,041,835. Subscription share 1,739,614 / 2,041,834 = 85.2%. Q2 2026 revenue mix: subscription 540,790 / 704,155 = 76.8%; advertising 88,637 / 704,155 = 12.6%; other 74,728 / 704,155 = 10.6%. Q2 growth by line: 540,790 / 282,138 - 1 = 91.7%; 88,637 / 19,285 - 1 = 359.6%; 74,728 / 9,676 - 1 = 672.1%. FY2025 by line: 1,213,194 / 616,418 - 1 = 96.8%; 67,253 / 52,690 - 1 = 27.6%; 25,958 / 1,945 = 13.3 times. Gross margin: 236,518 / 387,067 = 61.1%; 428,851 / 671,053 = 63.9%; 857,270 / 1,306,404 = 65.6%; 463,621 / 704,155 = 65.8%; 871,825 / 1,305,476 = 66.8%. Operating margin: 84,267 / 387,067 = 21.8%; 127,352 / 671,053 = 19.0%; 277,851 / 1,306,404 = 21.3%; 240,251 / 704,155 = 34.1%. General and administrative expense 326,953 / 1,306,404 = 25.0% of 2025 revenue. Costs excluded from Adjusted Operating Income in 2025: 150,532 + 85,466 + 78,607 + 20,790 = 335,395, which is also 613,247 - 277,851 = 335,396. The same four lines across 2023, 2024 and 2025: (13,514 + 848 + 33,809) + (51,792 + 31,952 + 85,947) + (78,607 + 85,466 + 150,532) = 48,171 + 169,691 + 314,605 = 532,467. Interest: 142,601 / 32,605 = 4.4 times; 108,970 / 35,733 - 1 = 205%; 142,601 / 277,851 = 51.3% of 2025 operating income; interest paid 161,153 / 254,240 = 63.4% of H1 2026 operating cash flow. Research and development 58,204 / 19,398 = 3.0 times; sales and marketing 72,679 / 30,696 = 2.4 times. Balance sheet at 30 June 2026: total debt 794,141 + 4,086,939 = 4,881,080 (415,260 + 2,255,622 = 2,670,882 at 31 December 2025); net debt 4,881,080 - 792,950 = 4,088,130; net debt / equity 4,088,130 / 1,258,412 = 3.25 times; goodwill and intangibles 4,146,212 + 2,156,607 = 6,302,819, which is 6,302,819 / 8,055,399 = 78.2% of assets; tangible book 1,258,412 - 6,302,819 = (5,044,407); goodwill 4,146,212 / 163,863 = 25.3 times the 31 December 2023 balance. Free cash flow H1 2026 254,240 - 3,969 = 250,271. Deferred revenue 583,265 / 450,499 - 1 = 29.5%. Net cash inside the two enterprise deals: Airtable equity value about 2,250 less enterprise value 1,285 = about 965 of net cash; Miro 1,790 less 1,355 = about 435; the two together 965 + 435 = about 1,400, against combined equity value 2,250 + 1,790 = about 4,040. Valuation and rail arithmetic: market value 28,289 / pro-forma FY2025 net income 22.374 = about 1,264 times earnings; store commission of 22 to 45 against Q1 2026 gross profit of 408,204 = 5.4% to 11.0%; store fee 15% to 30% against processor fees of 5% or less = three to six times. Per-unit arithmetic: trailing revenue 2,041,834 / 9,000 thousand paying customers = about $227 a year each; other revenue 74,728 / 25,958 = 2.9 times all of 2025; advertising expense at 6% of 2025 revenue 1,306,404 x 0.06 = about 78,384. Customer and per-unit arithmetic: a customer below 1% of Q2 2026 revenue of 704,155 is below 7,042, so under $7.0 million a quarter. Market value at $44.17 on 20 October 2026: 330,222,651 + 310,240,685 = 640,463,336 shares; 640,463,336 x 44.17 = $28,289 million. Trailing price-to-earnings 28,289 / 251.2 = 112.6; price-to-sales 28,289 / 2,041.8 = 13.9; enterprise value 28,289 + 4,088 = 32,377; 32,377 / 1,485 = 21.8 times guided Adjusted Operating Income; forward price-to-sales 28,289 / 2,800 = 10.1. Price against the 52-week high 44.17 / 59.50 - 1 = -25.8%; against the offering price 44.17 / 29.00 - 1 = +52.3%. Shares after the Berkshire placement 640,463,336 + 10,000,000 = 650,463,336. Berkshire's July tranche 600 / 29.00 = about 20.7 million shares, plus 10.0 million at $33.00 = about 30.7 million. New investors paid 29.00 / 1.00 = 29 times the $1.00 average price of the pre-offering equity. Votes: 310,240,685 x 5 = 1,551,203,425 against 1,551,203,425 + 324,978,625 = 1,876,182,050 total votes = 82.68%; equity 310,240,685 / 635,219,310 = 48.84%. Luca Querella's holding 310,240,685 - 234,315,380 = 75,925,305 class A shares, 75,925,305 x 5 / 1,876,182,050 = 20.2% of the votes. Geography: 201,424 / 387,067 = 52.0%; 347,942 / 671,053 = 51.9%; 642,140 / 1,306,404 = 49.2%; 434,864 / 704,155 = 61.8%; Italy 23,637 / 1,306,404 = 1.8%; revenue outside the United States in Q2 2026 704,155 - 434,864 = 269,291, 38.2%. Payment rails in Q1 2026: 0.75 x 0.33 = 24.8% of revenue through the Apple App Store or Google Play Store, 601,321 x 0.248 = about $149 million, on which a 15% to 30% fee is $22 million to $45 million; 0.75 x 0.67 = 50.3% through payment processors. Acquisitions: aggregate enterprise value 194 + 876 + 1,920 + 2,010 = $5,000 million for 2023, 2024, 2025 and Q1 2026. AOL contributed 65,500 / 141,800 = 46.2% pre-tax margin in Q1 2026 and 156 / 294 = 53.1% over six months; its FY2025 carve-out operating margin 333,610 / 633,365 = 52.7%, United States share 620,393 / 633,365 = 98.0%, purchase price 1,454,432 / 633,365 = 2.3 times carve-out revenue. Miro 1,355 / 600 = 2.3 times annual recurring revenue; Airtable 1,285 / 480 = 2.7 times; the two together 480 + 600 = about $1,080 million of annual recurring revenue. Tractive 896 - 115 = $781 million payable at closing. Pro-forma FY2025 interest 368,113 / 508,758 = 72.3% of operating income and net margin 22,374 / 2,608,496 = 0.9%. Cumulative net income attributable 2023 to 2025: 160,773 + 89,513 - 137 = 250,149. More acquisition arithmetic: average enterprise value per completed acquisition 194 / 1 = 194 (2023), 876 / 5 = 175 (2024), 1,920 / 6 = 320 (2025), 2,010 / 2 = 1,005 (Q1 2026); acquisitions closed in 2026 to 20 October = 4 (AOL, Eventbrite, Tractive, Airtable), with Miro agreed and expected to close in Q4; Airtable plus Miro enterprise value 1,285 + 1,355 = 2,640, against 480 + 600 = 1,080 of annual recurring revenue, which is more than the 671 of revenue Bending Spoons earned in all of 2024. Adjusted against reported operating income: 137,441 / 84,267 = 1.63 times (2023) and 613,247 / 277,851 = 2.21 times (2025). Cumulative revenue 2023 to 2025: 387,067 + 671,053 + 1,306,404 = 2,364,524. Interest 142,601 / 32,605 = 4.4 times. Customer tenure split, Q1 2026: 48% at five years or more less 28% at ten years or more = 20% between five and ten years, and 100% - 48% = 52% under five years. Conversion: WeTransfer 1,000,000 / 58,000,000 = 1.7%, Brightcove 1,700 / 15,000 = 11.3%, and 58,000,000 / 15,000 = about 3,900 times the user base. Mobile application stores as a share of gross accounts receivable 95% - 47% = 48 points lower over two years. Deferred revenue 583,265 / 2,041,834 = 28.6% of trailing revenue. Addressable revenue outside North America and Europe about 400 - 315 - 77 = $8 billion. People: 2,284 / 405 = 5.6 times the end-2023 headcount; Spooners 621 / 2,284 = 27.2%; hires 286 / 800,000 = 0.036% of applications; Evernote 60 / 341 - 1 = -82.4%; StreamYard 44 / 154 - 1 = -71.4%; Evernote's annual personal price 130 / 70 - 1 = +86%. Addressable market already owned 1,306 / 400,000 = 0.3%. A 10% euro move 18,821 / 1,306,404 = 1.4% of 2025 revenue - market value, share and vote counts, balance sheet, cash flow and guidance arithmetic. — 2023-2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Bending Spoons' Form 424B4 prospectus, its Q2 2026 Form 6-K exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and the cited market data; the operands are shown in the source line.
  10. ReportedBerkshire Hathaway invested $600 million at the July initial public offering by the company's own account and has agreed a further $330 million private placement of 10 million new ordinary shares at $33.00.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: Berkshire Hathaway invests a further $330 million following a $600 million investment at the July 2026 initial public offering, taking its ownership to 4%. — October 2026 · publ. 14 October 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedBerkshire Hathaway invested $600 million at the July initial public offering by the company's own account and has agreed a further $330 million private placement of 10 million new ordinary shares at $33.00.
    Bending Spoons Form 6-K describing the binding agreement with Berkshire Hathaway for a private placement of 10 million new ordinary shares at $33.00, proceeds of about $330 million, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. — October 2026 · publ. 14 October 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedMoody's upgraded Bending Spoons to Ba3 from B1 and S&P to BB- from B+, and a $1.25 billion dollar term loan add-on and a 395 million euro add-on were priced in September.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: syndication and pricing of a $1.25 billion add-on to the dollar term loan B and a 395 million euro add-on to the euro term loan B, both due 2031, and credit-rating upgrades by Moody's to Ba3 from B1 and by S&P to BB- from B+. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedMoody's upgraded Bending Spoons to Ba3 from B1 and S&P to BB- from B+, and a $1.25 billion dollar term loan add-on and a 395 million euro add-on were priced in September.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: syndication and pricing of a $1.25 billion add-on to the dollar term loan B and a 395 million euro add-on to the euro term loan B, both due 2031, and credit-rating upgrades by Moody's to Ba3 from B1 and by S&P to BB- from B+. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe near-term guidance is for the third quarter as well as the year: revenue of $733 million to $745 million and Adjusted Operating Income of $380 million to $400 million, both roughly 113% and 111% above a year earlier at the midpoints.
    Bending Spoons second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 - organic revenue growth, non-GAAP measures, net debt and leverage, the business transformations and guidance for the third quarter and the full year. — Q2 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedAs with the full-year figures, the outlook is based solely on the portfolio of businesses owned as of August 12, 2026, which leaves out the two largest purchases the company has ever made.
    Bending Spoons second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1 - organic revenue growth, non-GAAP measures, net debt and leverage, the business transformations and guidance for the third quarter and the full year. — Q2 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedAirtable is used by more than 500,000 organizations including 80% of the Fortune 100, and Miro has more than 750 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Airtable at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million and more than 500,000 organisations using the platform. — August 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedAirtable is used by more than 500,000 organizations including 80% of the Fortune 100, and Miro has more than 750 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Airtable at an enterprise value of $1.285 billion, with annual recurring revenue of approximately $480 million and more than 500,000 organisations using the platform. — August 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  18. ReportedAirtable is used by more than 500,000 organizations including 80% of the Fortune 100, and Miro has more than 750 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
    Bending Spoons press release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1: definitive agreement to acquire Miro at an enterprise value of $1.355 billion, with annual recurring revenue of around $600 million, 250,000 organisations and nearly 4 million paying users, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  19. ReportedThe Berkshire subscription agreement is also expected to contain customary registration rights provisions for the Investor, which is the normal arrangement for an investor who may one day want to sell.
    Bending Spoons Form 6-K describing the binding agreement with Berkshire Hathaway for a private placement of 10 million new ordinary shares at $33.00, proceeds of about $330 million, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. — October 2026 · publ. 14 October 2026 · source ↗
  20. ReportedThe last bet is the one the company itself names as an endpoint: perhaps our best acquisition opportunity will be the shares of our own company.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
  21. ReportedThat sits a long way off, because no dividend has ever been paid and no buyback exists.
    Bending Spoons S.p.A. Form 424B4, the final initial-public-offering prospectus dated 30 June 2026 - the master document, covering the business, the Playbook, the Platform, the audited financial statements for 2023-2025, the Q1 2026 interim, the acquisitions, customers, risk factors and legal proceedings - the letter from the team and the Business section on capital allocation, holding period and addressable market. — FY2023-Q1 2026 · publ. 1 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 20, 2026