AI-generated analysis, not investment advice. The articles are written by AI, edited, and checked against company filings — but the judgements are opinions and the figures go stale. How this is made · Terms

⚠ Sturgis: What a Plant Closure CostsModerate threat

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) — threat to the moat

One Michigan plant's 2022 shutdown cut Abbott's recalled-brand formula sales by 60% and its nutrition profit by 60%, and a $385 million federal settlement followed in 2026.

Abbott's most valuable US formula brands depended on one factory. In February 2022 it recalled powder infant formula made at Sturgis and stopped production there1; on 16 May 2022 it entered a consent decree with the FDA2. US sales of the recalled brands were $479 million in 2022 against $1.2 billion in 20213.

Abbott Nutrition operating earnings ($M)1,70520191,763202170620221,33320231,5582025Abbott Forms 10-K FY2020, FY2024 and FY2025, segment note
Sixty percent of the profit gone in a year.

The damage went straight to profit. Nutrition operating earnings fell from $1,763 million in 2021 to $706 million in 20224, and Abbott took $176 million of recall charges5.

The bill kept arriving. In September 2026 Abbott agreed to pay $384,999,040 to settle False Claims Act allegations that it caused government programs to buy formula made at Sturgis and Casa Grande, Arizona that did not meet requirements, covering 1 January 2018 to 31 December 20226. Shareholders sued the directors, and that derivative case settled with governance reforms7.

The recall's effect on US pediatric sales was immediate: they fell 28.7% in 20228, to $1,562 million from $2,192 million9.

The brand survived the shutdown. US Pediatric Nutrition sales recovered to $1,977 million in 2023 and $2,208 million in 202410, above their 2021 level, which is evidence that parents came back once the shelves were full again.

The lesson is that a brand moat sits on a manufacturing base. The controls promised after Sturgis are tested every time an inspector visits. One more FDA action at a US formula plant within five years and they did not hold.

References
  1. ReportedIn February 2022 it recalled powder infant formula made at Sturgis and stopped production there; on 16 May 2022 it entered a consent decree with the FDA.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2022 - the February 2022 Sturgis infant formula recall, the 16 May 2022 consent decree, recalled-brand US sales of $479 million against $1.2 billion, $176 million of recall charges, COVID-19 testing sales of $3.9bn, $7.7bn and $8.4bn in 2020-2022, net earnings and EPS for 2020-2022, and the statement that product liability losses are self-insured. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn February 2022 it recalled powder infant formula made at Sturgis and stopped production there; on 16 May 2022 it entered a consent decree with the FDA.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2022 - the February 2022 Sturgis infant formula recall, the 16 May 2022 consent decree, recalled-brand US sales of $479 million against $1.2 billion, $176 million of recall charges, COVID-19 testing sales of $3.9bn, $7.7bn and $8.4bn in 2020-2022, net earnings and EPS for 2020-2022, and the statement that product liability losses are self-insured. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  3. ReportedUS sales of the recalled brands were $479 million in 2022 against $1.2 billion in 2021.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2022 - the February 2022 Sturgis infant formula recall, the 16 May 2022 consent decree, recalled-brand US sales of $479 million against $1.2 billion, $176 million of recall charges, COVID-19 testing sales of $3.9bn, $7.7bn and $8.4bn in 2020-2022, net earnings and EPS for 2020-2022, and the statement that product liability losses are self-insured. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  4. ReportedNutrition operating earnings fell from $1,763 million in 2021 to $706 million in 2022, and Abbott took $176 million of recall charges.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2024 - segment results for 2022-2024 with the Acelis Connected Health restatement, total assets and shareholders' investment at 31 December 2024, and the $7.5 billion non-cash valuation allowance release in 2024 taxes. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedNutrition operating earnings fell from $1,763 million in 2021 to $706 million in 2022, and Abbott took $176 million of recall charges.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2022 - the February 2022 Sturgis infant formula recall, the 16 May 2022 consent decree, recalled-brand US sales of $479 million against $1.2 billion, $176 million of recall charges, COVID-19 testing sales of $3.9bn, $7.7bn and $8.4bn in 2020-2022, net earnings and EPS for 2020-2022, and the statement that product liability losses are self-insured. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn September 2026 Abbott agreed to pay $384,999,040 to settle False Claims Act allegations that it caused government programs to buy formula made at Sturgis and Casa Grande, Arizona that did not meet requirements, covering 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2022.
    US Department of Justice release, September 2026 - Abbott agrees to pay $384,999,040 to resolve False Claims Act allegations over powder infant formula made at Sturgis, Michigan and Casa Grande, Arizona between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2022; complaint in intervention filed 13 November 2025. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedShareholders sued the directors, and that derivative case settled with governance reforms.
    Notice of settlement of In re Abbott Laboratories Infant Formula Shareholder Derivative Litigation (N.D. Ill.), Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with corporate governance reforms and a 4 June 2026 hearing. — April 2026 · publ. 17 April 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcThe recall's effect on US pediatric sales was immediate: they fell 28.7% in 2022, to $1,562 million from $2,192 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Abbott Laboratories reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Medical Devices: share of total reportable segment operating earnings 3,011 / 6,916 = 43.5% (2017), 4,533 / 13,422 = 33.8% (2021), 7,212 / 11,800 = 61.1% (2025); first half 2026 3,862 / 6,122 = 63.1%. Share of segment sales 21,387 / 44,311 = 48.3% (2025); first half 2026 11,392 / 23,750 = 48.0%. Segment margin 3,011 / 10,325 = 29.2% (2017), 3,038 / 11,787 = 25.8% (2020), 4,533 / 14,485 = 31.3% (2021), 7,212 / 21,387 = 33.7% (2025); Q2 2026 1,969 / 5,853 = 33.6%, Q2 2025 1,796 / 5,369 = 33.5%. Sales growth 2017-2025 (21,387 / 10,325)^(1/8) - 1 = 9.5% a year; operating earnings 2025 7,212 / 6,153 - 1 = +17.2%; sales 2025 21,387 / 18,986 - 1 = +12.6%. Diabetes Care 7,998 / 1,414 = 5.66 times (2017 to 2025); share of Medical Devices 1,414 / 10,325 = 13.7% (2017), 2,524 / 12,239 = 20.6% (2019), 4,328 / 14,485 = 29.9% (2021), 5,761 / 16,887 = 34.1% (2023), 7,998 / 21,387 = 37.4% (2025); share of company 7,998 / 44,328 = 18.0%; CGM share of Diabetes Care 7.6bn / 7.998bn = 95%. CGM growth 2019-2025 (7.6 / 1.842)^(1/6) - 1 = 26.6% a year. Abbott CGM sales over DexCom revenue 7,600 / 4,662.0 = 1.63 times. DexCom distributor share 3,959.0 / 4,662.0 = 84.9%. Product lines 2017 to 2025: Electrophysiology 2,764 / 1,353 = 2.04 times; Structural Heart 2,523 / 1,083 = 2.33 times; Heart Failure 1,448 / 643 = 2.25 times; Rhythm Management 2,649 / 2,132 - 1 = +24.2%; Neuromodulation 1,010 / 808 - 1 = +25.0%; Vascular 2,995 / 2,892 - 1 = +3.6%. Rhythm Management, Heart Failure, Vascular and Neuromodulation together 2,649 + 1,448 + 2,995 + 1,010 = 8,102 (2025) against 2,390 + 1,279 + 2,837 + 962 = 7,468 (2024), +8.5%. Diagnostics: margin 1,912 / 7,713 = 24.8% (2019), 6,237 / 15,526 = 40.2% (2021), 6,640 / 16,469 = 40.3% (2022), 2,433 / 9,988 = 24.4% (2023), 1,740 / 8,937 = 19.5% (2025); Q2 2026 499 / 3,092 = 16.1%, Q2 2025 372 / 2,173 = 17.1%. Share of segment operating earnings 6,640 / 12,831 = 51.7% (2022), 1,740 / 11,800 = 14.7% (2025). Sales 2025 8,937 / 9,341 - 1 = -4.3%. COVID testing share of Diagnostics sales 2022 8.4bn / 16.469bn = 51%, about half. Core Laboratory 5,360 / 4,063 - 1 = +31.9%. Rapid Diagnostics 2,454 / 10,061 - 1 = -75.6% (2022 to 2025). Point of Care 606 / 550 - 1 = +10.2%. Molecular 2020 peak 1,438 / 463 = 3.11 times 2017. Cancer Diagnostics share of Diagnostics Q2 2026 919 / 3,092 = 29.7%. Exact Sciences US share of 2025 sales 3,145 / 3,247 = 96.9%; purchase price over 2025 sales 20.6bn / 3.247bn = 6.3 times. China net sales 1,907 / 2,253 - 1 = -15.4% (2023 to 2025); China share of company 2,253 / 40,109 = 5.6% (2023), 1,907 / 44,328 = 4.3% (2025). Nutrition: margin 1,741 / 6,975 = 25.0% (2015), 1,705 / 7,409 = 23.0% (2019), 1,763 / 8,294 = 21.3% (2021), 706 / 7,459 = 9.5% (2022), 1,333 / 8,154 = 16.3% (2023), 1,558 / 8,451 = 18.4% (2025); Q2 2026 368 / 2,144 = 17.2%, Q2 2025 418 / 2,212 = 18.9%. Q2 operating earnings 368 / 418 - 1 = -12.0%. Sales 2021 to 2025 8,451 / 8,294 - 1 = +1.9%. Share of company sales 6,925 / 27,390 = 25.3% (2017), 7,409 / 31,904 = 23.2% (2019), 8,294 / 43,075 = 19.3% (2021), 8,154 / 40,109 = 20.3% (2023), 8,451 / 44,328 = 19.1% (2025). US Pediatric 2022 1,562 / 2,192 - 1 = -28.7%. International Adult 3,029 / 1,782 - 1 = +70.0% (2017 to 2025); share of Nutrition 3,029 / 8,451 = 35.8%. International Pediatric 1,816 / 2,112 - 1 = -14.0%. Sturgis: recalled brands 479 / 1,200 - 1 = -60%; Nutrition operating earnings 706 / 1,763 - 1 = -60%. Established Pharmaceuticals: margin 658 / 3,720 = 17.7% (2015), 848 / 4,287 = 19.8% (2017), 904 / 4,486 = 20.2% (2019), 889 / 4,718 = 18.8% (2021), 1,206 / 5,066 = 23.8% (2023), 1,290 / 5,536 = 23.3% (2025); Q2 2026 382 / 1,499 = 25.5%. Sales 5,536 / 3,720 - 1 = +48.8% (2015 to 2025); (5,536 / 4,287)^(1/8) - 1 = 3.2% a year (2017 to 2025). Key Emerging Markets share 4,167 / 5,536 = 75.3%. Segment sales growth 2025: Medical Devices +12.6%, Established Pharmaceuticals 5,536 / 5,194 - 1 = +6.6%, Nutrition 8,451 / 8,413 - 1 = +0.5%, Diagnostics -4.3%; net sales 44,328 / 41,950 - 1 = +5.7%. US share of 2025 net sales 17,126 / 44,328 = 38.6%; international share Q2 2026 7,377 / 12,593 = 58.6%. Further: Structural Heart compensation payments 89 / 2,523 = 3.5% of 2025 line sales. Diabetes Care added 7,998 - 6,805 = 1,193 in 2025. One point of CGM growth on 7.6bn = about 76. Medical Devices share of segment assets 10,689 / (3,540 + 4,791 + 8,273 + 10,689 = 27,293) = 39.2%. Total debt over total assets 32,608 / 109,215 = 29.9% (30 June 2026), 12,929 / 86,713 = 14.9% (end 2025). Net debt over Abbott shareholders' investment 27,005 / 51,110 = 0.53. Market value 173.21 / 217.86 - 1 = -20.5% (end 2025 to 5 October 2026). Second pass: US Structural Heart first half 2026 449 / 1,175 = 38.2%. Rapid Diagnostics 2,454 / 4,376 = 56% of 2020. Diagnostics Q2 2026 operating earnings 499 / 372 - 1 = +34.1%. Nutrition sales (8,451 / 6,925)^(1/8) - 1 = 2.5% a year (2017 to 2025); 8,451 / 7,409 - 1 = +14.1% (2019 to 2025). US Adult Nutrition 1,448 / 1,254 - 1 = +15.5% (2017 to 2025). Adult nutrition 3,029 + 1,448 = 4,477; pediatric 2,158 + 1,816 = 3,974 (2025). Total segment operating earnings 11,800 / 13,422 - 1 = -12.1% (2021 to 2025); Medical Devices 7,212 / 4,533 - 1 = +59.1%. First half 2026 dividends over operating cash flow 2,200 / 3,803 = 57.9%. DexCom revenue 2023 3,095.6 + 526.7 = 3,622.3; 4,662.0 / 3,622.3 - 1 = +28.7%; Abbott CGM 7.6 / 5.3 - 1 = +43.4% (2023 to 2025). US share of first half 2026 sales 9,490 / 23,757 = 39.9%. Diagnostics RPO 6,200 / 8,937 = 69% of 2025 Diagnostics sales; 6,200 / 5,360 = 1.16 times Core Laboratory sales. Libre 7.6 / 1.128 = 6.7 times (2018 to 2025). Medical Devices and Established Pharmaceuticals RPO 455 + 243 = 698, / 6,898 = 10.1%. Cash, debt and dividends: free cash flow 9,566 - 2,171 = 7,395 (2025), 8,558 - 2,207 = 6,351 (2024), 7,261 - 2,202 = 5,059 (2023); after dividends 7,395 - 4,116 = 3,279, about $3.3 billion. Dividends paid over free cash flow 4,116 / 7,395 = 55.7%; over net earnings 4,116 / 6,524 = 63.1%; 2025 dividend per share over adjusted EPS 2.40 / 5.15 = 46.6%; annual dividend 4 x 0.63 = 2.52 over trailing EPS 3.09 = 81.6%. Dividend per share 2.40 / 0.98 = 2.45 times, (2.45)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year (2015 to 2025). Total debt 3,033 + 9,896 = 12,929 (end 2025), 3,005 + 29,603 = 32,608 (30 June 2026); net debt 12,929 - 8,522 - 417 = 3,990 (end 2025), 32,608 - 5,104 - 499 = 27,005 (30 June 2026), 14,679 - 7,279 = 7,400 (end 2023), 14,125 - 7,967 = 6,158 (end 2024); 27,005 / 3,990 = 6.8 times. Remaining performance obligations 6,200 + 455 + 243 = 6,898, about $6.9 billion; Diagnostics share 6,200 / 6,898 = 90%; beyond 36 months 100% - 52% - 18% = 30%; over trailing twelve-month sales 6,898 / 46,585 = 14.8%, about 15%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net sales 44,328 - 21,500 + 23,757 = 46,585; net earnings 6,524 - 3,104 + 2,005 = 5,425; diluted EPS 3.72 - 1.77 + 1.14 = 3.09. Expected amortization 1.5bn (2030) / 2.6bn (2026) - 1 = -42%. Analyst target 120.26 / 100.10 - 1 = +20.1%. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints (5.55 + 5.80) / 2 = 5.675 (January), (5.38 + 5.58) / 2 = 5.48 (April), (5.45 + 5.60) / 2 = 5.525 (July). Year-end market value (stockanalysis) over net earnings and net sales: 2015 66.99bn / 4,423 = 15.15, / 20,405 = 3.283; 2016 56.55 / 1,400 = 40.39, / 20,853 = 2.712; 2017 99.34 / 477 = 208.26, / 27,390 = 3.627; 2018 127.04 / 2,368 = 53.65, / 30,578 = 4.155; 2019 153.61 / 3,687 = 41.66, / 31,904 = 4.815; 2020 194.06 / 4,495 = 43.17, / 34,608 = 5.607; 2021 248.87 / 7,071 = 35.20, / 43,075 = 5.778; 2022 191.43 / 6,933 = 27.61, / 43,653 = 4.385; 2023 191.09 / 5,723 = 33.39, / 40,109 = 4.764; 2024 196.18 / 13,402 = 14.64, / 41,950 = 4.677; 2025 217.86 / 6,524 = 33.39, / 44,328 = 4.915; 5 October 2026 173.21bn / 5,425 = 31.93, / 46,585 = 3.718 - Nutrition margins, lines and shares. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Abbott Laboratories Forms 10-K and 10-Q and earnings releases, the DexCom Form 10-K, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  9. ReportedThe recall's effect on US pediatric sales was immediate: they fell 28.7% in 2022, to $1,562 million from $2,192 million.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2023 - segment results for 2021-2023 restated for the move of Acelis Connected Health to Medical Devices, product-line sales for 2021-2023, Rapid Diagnostics' fall in 2023, COVID-19 testing as 17.8% and 19.2% of sales in 2021 and 2022, and the balance sheet at 31 December 2023. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  10. ReportedUS Pediatric Nutrition sales recovered to $1,977 million in 2023 and $2,208 million in 2024, above their 2021 level, which is evidence that parents came back once the shelves were full again.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - Item 1 and MD&A for Nutritional Products: pediatric and adult nutrition in the US and abroad. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026