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✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) — the future bets

Abbott's future bets are cancer screening, smarter sensors and new heart devices, financed by $20 billion of debt that has to be repaid first.

Abbott's future bets lean on the two businesses it already has moats in, devices and diagnostics, and on the money it borrowed to enlarge one of them. The biggest is cancer screening: Exact Sciences, bought for about $20.6 billion1 to enter what Abbott calls a $60 billion US segment2.

Abbott 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint ($)5.68January 20265.48April 20265.53July 2026Abbott Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings releases; April includes Exact dilution
Cut for Exact, then nudged back up.

The others are smaller and closer to home. Libre Duo, a glucose-ketone sensor, won a CE Mark in May 20263, and Lingo sells the sensor to people without diabetes4. A coronary lithotripsy system finished enrolling its US pivotal trial in April 2026, and Amulet 360 was submitted to the FDA in May5.

The fourth bet is financial. Net debt rose to about $27.0 billion at 30 June 20266, and the pace of repayment will decide how much room Abbott has for the rest.

Management's own measure of the bets is adjusted earnings. Abbott raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45 to $5.60 in July7, after an April range of $5.38 to $5.58 that included $0.20 of dilution from Exact8, and said it expects "accelerating sales and earnings growth in the second half of the year"9.

The bets are being paid for out of a business that is also returning cash. In the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $3,803 million and capital spending $896 million, while Abbott spent $19,962 million on acquisitions and raised $19,827 million of long-term debt10. The cash flow of the existing business is what will repay the borrowing behind the largest bet.

The cost of the bets is visible in the first half. Research and development rose 15.1% to $1,659 million and amortization of intangibles 28.5% to $1,080 million11, while operating earnings fell 18.9% to $3,038 million12. Adjusted EPS, which removes the amortization, rose 4.7% to $2.4613.

That promise is the near-term test. Abbott guided third-quarter adjusted EPS to $1.38 to $1.4614. A result under that range, reported on 21 October, is the first sign the bets cost more in their first year than they return.

Moat trajectory: Widening

2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $5.45-5.60 in July 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint
$5.53 ($5.45-5.60, July 2026), from $5.48 in April

Management's measure of whether the bets pay; a cut would mean Exact and the new products cost more than planned.

Source: Abbott Q2 2026 earnings release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Cancer Screening: The $60 Billion Segment
Abbott paid about 6.3 times sales for Exact Sciences to enter a $60 billion US screening market; the bet pays only if its global channel carries the…
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Libre Duo and Lingo: Sensors Beyond Insulin
Abbott is extending its glucose sensor to ketones with Libre Duo and to people without diabetes with Lingo, to restart a franchise whose growth has…
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Lithotripsy and Amulet 360: The Next Device Approvals
Abbott is trying to restart its flat Vascular line with coronary lithotripsy and extend Electrophysiology with Amulet 360, both now before the FDA or…
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Paying Down Twenty Billion
Abbott borrowed $20 billion for Exact Sciences and spent $1,040 million on buybacks in the next quarter; how fast it repays will decide whether the…
References
  1. ReportedThe biggest is cancer screening: Exact Sciences, bought for about $20.6 billion to enter what Abbott calls a $60 billion US segment.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment sales and operating earnings, the Exact Sciences acquisition and purchase-price allocation, the $20.0 billion of notes, remaining performance obligations, goodwill by segment, expected amortization, legal reserves and the NEC litigation, and the balance sheet at 30 June 2026 - the Exact Sciences acquisition, purchase-price allocation, goodwill by segment and expected amortization. — Q2 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe biggest is cancer screening: Exact Sciences, bought for about $20.6 billion to enter what Abbott calls a $60 billion US segment.
    Abbott Laboratories release of 23 March 2026, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Abbott completes the acquisition of Exact Sciences, entering the $60 billion US cancer screening and precision oncology diagnostics segments. — March 2026 · publ. 23 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedLibre Duo, a glucose-ketone sensor, won a CE Mark in May 2026, and Lingo sells the sensor to people without diabetes.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - Medical Devices sales by business, continuous glucose monitors, Amulet and TECTONIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedLibre Duo, a glucose-ketone sensor, won a CE Mark in May 2026, and Lingo sells the sensor to people without diabetes.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-K for 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - Item 1 and MD&A for Medical Devices: Diabetes Care, continuous glucose monitors and the cardiovascular and neuromodulation businesses. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedA coronary lithotripsy system finished enrolling its US pivotal trial in April 2026, and Amulet 360 was submitted to the FDA in May.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - Medical Devices sales by business, continuous glucose monitors, Amulet and TECTONIC. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcNet debt rose to about $27.0 billion at 30 June 2026, and the pace of repayment will decide how much room Abbott has for the rest.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Abbott Laboratories reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Medical Devices: share of total reportable segment operating earnings 3,011 / 6,916 = 43.5% (2017), 4,533 / 13,422 = 33.8% (2021), 7,212 / 11,800 = 61.1% (2025); first half 2026 3,862 / 6,122 = 63.1%. Share of segment sales 21,387 / 44,311 = 48.3% (2025); first half 2026 11,392 / 23,750 = 48.0%. Segment margin 3,011 / 10,325 = 29.2% (2017), 3,038 / 11,787 = 25.8% (2020), 4,533 / 14,485 = 31.3% (2021), 7,212 / 21,387 = 33.7% (2025); Q2 2026 1,969 / 5,853 = 33.6%, Q2 2025 1,796 / 5,369 = 33.5%. Sales growth 2017-2025 (21,387 / 10,325)^(1/8) - 1 = 9.5% a year; operating earnings 2025 7,212 / 6,153 - 1 = +17.2%; sales 2025 21,387 / 18,986 - 1 = +12.6%. Diabetes Care 7,998 / 1,414 = 5.66 times (2017 to 2025); share of Medical Devices 1,414 / 10,325 = 13.7% (2017), 2,524 / 12,239 = 20.6% (2019), 4,328 / 14,485 = 29.9% (2021), 5,761 / 16,887 = 34.1% (2023), 7,998 / 21,387 = 37.4% (2025); share of company 7,998 / 44,328 = 18.0%; CGM share of Diabetes Care 7.6bn / 7.998bn = 95%. CGM growth 2019-2025 (7.6 / 1.842)^(1/6) - 1 = 26.6% a year. Abbott CGM sales over DexCom revenue 7,600 / 4,662.0 = 1.63 times. DexCom distributor share 3,959.0 / 4,662.0 = 84.9%. Product lines 2017 to 2025: Electrophysiology 2,764 / 1,353 = 2.04 times; Structural Heart 2,523 / 1,083 = 2.33 times; Heart Failure 1,448 / 643 = 2.25 times; Rhythm Management 2,649 / 2,132 - 1 = +24.2%; Neuromodulation 1,010 / 808 - 1 = +25.0%; Vascular 2,995 / 2,892 - 1 = +3.6%. Rhythm Management, Heart Failure, Vascular and Neuromodulation together 2,649 + 1,448 + 2,995 + 1,010 = 8,102 (2025) against 2,390 + 1,279 + 2,837 + 962 = 7,468 (2024), +8.5%. Diagnostics: margin 1,912 / 7,713 = 24.8% (2019), 6,237 / 15,526 = 40.2% (2021), 6,640 / 16,469 = 40.3% (2022), 2,433 / 9,988 = 24.4% (2023), 1,740 / 8,937 = 19.5% (2025); Q2 2026 499 / 3,092 = 16.1%, Q2 2025 372 / 2,173 = 17.1%. Share of segment operating earnings 6,640 / 12,831 = 51.7% (2022), 1,740 / 11,800 = 14.7% (2025). Sales 2025 8,937 / 9,341 - 1 = -4.3%. COVID testing share of Diagnostics sales 2022 8.4bn / 16.469bn = 51%, about half. Core Laboratory 5,360 / 4,063 - 1 = +31.9%. Rapid Diagnostics 2,454 / 10,061 - 1 = -75.6% (2022 to 2025). Point of Care 606 / 550 - 1 = +10.2%. Molecular 2020 peak 1,438 / 463 = 3.11 times 2017. Cancer Diagnostics share of Diagnostics Q2 2026 919 / 3,092 = 29.7%. Exact Sciences US share of 2025 sales 3,145 / 3,247 = 96.9%; purchase price over 2025 sales 20.6bn / 3.247bn = 6.3 times. China net sales 1,907 / 2,253 - 1 = -15.4% (2023 to 2025); China share of company 2,253 / 40,109 = 5.6% (2023), 1,907 / 44,328 = 4.3% (2025). Nutrition: margin 1,741 / 6,975 = 25.0% (2015), 1,705 / 7,409 = 23.0% (2019), 1,763 / 8,294 = 21.3% (2021), 706 / 7,459 = 9.5% (2022), 1,333 / 8,154 = 16.3% (2023), 1,558 / 8,451 = 18.4% (2025); Q2 2026 368 / 2,144 = 17.2%, Q2 2025 418 / 2,212 = 18.9%. Q2 operating earnings 368 / 418 - 1 = -12.0%. Sales 2021 to 2025 8,451 / 8,294 - 1 = +1.9%. Share of company sales 6,925 / 27,390 = 25.3% (2017), 7,409 / 31,904 = 23.2% (2019), 8,294 / 43,075 = 19.3% (2021), 8,154 / 40,109 = 20.3% (2023), 8,451 / 44,328 = 19.1% (2025). US Pediatric 2022 1,562 / 2,192 - 1 = -28.7%. International Adult 3,029 / 1,782 - 1 = +70.0% (2017 to 2025); share of Nutrition 3,029 / 8,451 = 35.8%. International Pediatric 1,816 / 2,112 - 1 = -14.0%. Sturgis: recalled brands 479 / 1,200 - 1 = -60%; Nutrition operating earnings 706 / 1,763 - 1 = -60%. Established Pharmaceuticals: margin 658 / 3,720 = 17.7% (2015), 848 / 4,287 = 19.8% (2017), 904 / 4,486 = 20.2% (2019), 889 / 4,718 = 18.8% (2021), 1,206 / 5,066 = 23.8% (2023), 1,290 / 5,536 = 23.3% (2025); Q2 2026 382 / 1,499 = 25.5%. Sales 5,536 / 3,720 - 1 = +48.8% (2015 to 2025); (5,536 / 4,287)^(1/8) - 1 = 3.2% a year (2017 to 2025). Key Emerging Markets share 4,167 / 5,536 = 75.3%. Segment sales growth 2025: Medical Devices +12.6%, Established Pharmaceuticals 5,536 / 5,194 - 1 = +6.6%, Nutrition 8,451 / 8,413 - 1 = +0.5%, Diagnostics -4.3%; net sales 44,328 / 41,950 - 1 = +5.7%. US share of 2025 net sales 17,126 / 44,328 = 38.6%; international share Q2 2026 7,377 / 12,593 = 58.6%. Further: Structural Heart compensation payments 89 / 2,523 = 3.5% of 2025 line sales. Diabetes Care added 7,998 - 6,805 = 1,193 in 2025. One point of CGM growth on 7.6bn = about 76. Medical Devices share of segment assets 10,689 / (3,540 + 4,791 + 8,273 + 10,689 = 27,293) = 39.2%. Total debt over total assets 32,608 / 109,215 = 29.9% (30 June 2026), 12,929 / 86,713 = 14.9% (end 2025). Net debt over Abbott shareholders' investment 27,005 / 51,110 = 0.53. Market value 173.21 / 217.86 - 1 = -20.5% (end 2025 to 5 October 2026). Second pass: US Structural Heart first half 2026 449 / 1,175 = 38.2%. Rapid Diagnostics 2,454 / 4,376 = 56% of 2020. Diagnostics Q2 2026 operating earnings 499 / 372 - 1 = +34.1%. Nutrition sales (8,451 / 6,925)^(1/8) - 1 = 2.5% a year (2017 to 2025); 8,451 / 7,409 - 1 = +14.1% (2019 to 2025). US Adult Nutrition 1,448 / 1,254 - 1 = +15.5% (2017 to 2025). Adult nutrition 3,029 + 1,448 = 4,477; pediatric 2,158 + 1,816 = 3,974 (2025). Total segment operating earnings 11,800 / 13,422 - 1 = -12.1% (2021 to 2025); Medical Devices 7,212 / 4,533 - 1 = +59.1%. First half 2026 dividends over operating cash flow 2,200 / 3,803 = 57.9%. DexCom revenue 2023 3,095.6 + 526.7 = 3,622.3; 4,662.0 / 3,622.3 - 1 = +28.7%; Abbott CGM 7.6 / 5.3 - 1 = +43.4% (2023 to 2025). US share of first half 2026 sales 9,490 / 23,757 = 39.9%. Diagnostics RPO 6,200 / 8,937 = 69% of 2025 Diagnostics sales; 6,200 / 5,360 = 1.16 times Core Laboratory sales. Libre 7.6 / 1.128 = 6.7 times (2018 to 2025). Medical Devices and Established Pharmaceuticals RPO 455 + 243 = 698, / 6,898 = 10.1%. Cash, debt and dividends: free cash flow 9,566 - 2,171 = 7,395 (2025), 8,558 - 2,207 = 6,351 (2024), 7,261 - 2,202 = 5,059 (2023); after dividends 7,395 - 4,116 = 3,279, about $3.3 billion. Dividends paid over free cash flow 4,116 / 7,395 = 55.7%; over net earnings 4,116 / 6,524 = 63.1%; 2025 dividend per share over adjusted EPS 2.40 / 5.15 = 46.6%; annual dividend 4 x 0.63 = 2.52 over trailing EPS 3.09 = 81.6%. Dividend per share 2.40 / 0.98 = 2.45 times, (2.45)^(1/10) - 1 = 9.4% a year (2015 to 2025). Total debt 3,033 + 9,896 = 12,929 (end 2025), 3,005 + 29,603 = 32,608 (30 June 2026); net debt 12,929 - 8,522 - 417 = 3,990 (end 2025), 32,608 - 5,104 - 499 = 27,005 (30 June 2026), 14,679 - 7,279 = 7,400 (end 2023), 14,125 - 7,967 = 6,158 (end 2024); 27,005 / 3,990 = 6.8 times. Remaining performance obligations 6,200 + 455 + 243 = 6,898, about $6.9 billion; Diagnostics share 6,200 / 6,898 = 90%; beyond 36 months 100% - 52% - 18% = 30%; over trailing twelve-month sales 6,898 / 46,585 = 14.8%, about 15%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net sales 44,328 - 21,500 + 23,757 = 46,585; net earnings 6,524 - 3,104 + 2,005 = 5,425; diluted EPS 3.72 - 1.77 + 1.14 = 3.09. Expected amortization 1.5bn (2030) / 2.6bn (2026) - 1 = -42%. Analyst target 120.26 / 100.10 - 1 = +20.1%. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints (5.55 + 5.80) / 2 = 5.675 (January), (5.38 + 5.58) / 2 = 5.48 (April), (5.45 + 5.60) / 2 = 5.525 (July). Year-end market value (stockanalysis) over net earnings and net sales: 2015 66.99bn / 4,423 = 15.15, / 20,405 = 3.283; 2016 56.55 / 1,400 = 40.39, / 20,853 = 2.712; 2017 99.34 / 477 = 208.26, / 27,390 = 3.627; 2018 127.04 / 2,368 = 53.65, / 30,578 = 4.155; 2019 153.61 / 3,687 = 41.66, / 31,904 = 4.815; 2020 194.06 / 4,495 = 43.17, / 34,608 = 5.607; 2021 248.87 / 7,071 = 35.20, / 43,075 = 5.778; 2022 191.43 / 6,933 = 27.61, / 43,653 = 4.385; 2023 191.09 / 5,723 = 33.39, / 40,109 = 4.764; 2024 196.18 / 13,402 = 14.64, / 41,950 = 4.677; 2025 217.86 / 6,524 = 33.39, / 44,328 = 4.915; 5 October 2026 173.21bn / 5,425 = 31.93, / 46,585 = 3.718 - cash flow, dividends, debt, earnings and valuation. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Abbott Laboratories Forms 10-K and 10-Q and earnings releases, the DexCom Form 10-K, and stockanalysis.com market values; each operand is stated in the source line.
  7. ReportedAbbott raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45 to $5.60 in July, after an April range of $5.38 to $5.58 that included $0.20 of dilution from Exact, and said it expects "accelerating sales and earnings growth in the second half of the year".
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - Diagnostics sales by business, Cancer Diagnostics and Cologuard. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAbbott raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45 to $5.60 in July, after an April range of $5.38 to $5.58 that included $0.20 of dilution from Exact, and said it expects "accelerating sales and earnings growth in the second half of the year".
    Abbott Laboratories first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - continuous glucose monitor sales growth and full-year 2026 guidance including $0.20 of Exact Sciences dilution. — Q1 2026 · publ. 16 April 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAbbott raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45 to $5.60 in July, after an April range of $5.38 to $5.58 that included $0.20 of dilution from Exact, and said it expects "accelerating sales and earnings growth in the second half of the year".
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - Diagnostics sales by business, Cancer Diagnostics and Cologuard. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $3,803 million and capital spending $896 million, while Abbott spent $19,962 million on acquisitions and raised $19,827 million of long-term debt.
    Abbott Laboratories Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment sales and operating earnings, the Exact Sciences acquisition and purchase-price allocation, the $20.0 billion of notes, remaining performance obligations, goodwill by segment, expected amortization, legal reserves and the NEC litigation, and the balance sheet at 30 June 2026 - the Exact Sciences acquisition, purchase-price allocation, goodwill by segment and expected amortization. — Q2 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedResearch and development rose 15.1% to $1,659 million and amortization of intangibles 28.5% to $1,080 million, while operating earnings fell 18.9% to $3,038 million.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - total sales, income statement, specified items, tax rate, guidance and the dividend. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedResearch and development rose 15.1% to $1,659 million and amortization of intangibles 28.5% to $1,080 million, while operating earnings fell 18.9% to $3,038 million.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - total sales, income statement, specified items, tax rate, guidance and the dividend. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedAdjusted EPS, which removes the amortization, rose 4.7% to $2.46.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - total sales, income statement, specified items, tax rate, guidance and the dividend. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedAbbott guided third-quarter adjusted EPS to $1.38 to $1.46.
    Abbott Laboratories second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales by segment and business, comparable growth, income statement, specified items, guidance and the 410th consecutive quarterly dividend - total sales, income statement, specified items, tax rate, guidance and the dividend. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 6, 2026