Forty-Six Percent Answers to BeijingThin moat

Qualcomm (QCOM) — moat facet

Four separate things can end this revenue and none of them is a decision by any of the customers.

Nearly half of Qualcomm's revenue comes from customers headquartered in a country where it has no vote.

Revenue by customer headquarters, FY2025China incl. Hong Kong — 46%United States — 24%South Korea — 22%Other foreign — 9%Reported by where the buying decision is made, not where the phone is sold.
Four things can end this revenue and none of them is a customer\'s decision.

China including Hong Kong was $20,340 million of fiscal 2025 revenue — 46% — against $10,515 million from the United States and $9,542 million from South Korea.1 The share has risen from 37% two years earlier. Qualcomm notes that it reports by customer headquarters, so this measures where the buying decision is made rather than where the phone is sold.

These are good customers. Xiaomi is one of the three named above the 10% threshold, and Oppo, Vivo and Honor between them ship several hundred million devices a year, mostly with Qualcomm silicon in the premium tiers.2 The commercial relationship is not the problem.

The problem is that four separate things can change it without any of those companies deciding anything: an export control from Washington, an industrial-policy preference from Beijing, a regulatory action against the licensing model of the kind China has taken before, or a price-driven shift to MediaTek.

Only the last of those leaves the royalty intact.3

The measure is the China share of revenue, not its absolute size. Rising through a period when total revenue also rises means the diversification is not yet changing the shape of the company.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

China including Hong Kong went from 37% of revenue in fiscal 2023 to 46% in fiscal 2025 — a dependency that deepened while everyone was watching the Apple story.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue from Chinese-headquartered customers
$20,340M — 46% of the total

Against $10,515M from the United States and $9,542M from South Korea. Four separate things can change this without any customer deciding anything: a US export control, a Chinese industrial-policy preference, a regulatory action against the licensing model, or a price-driven shift to MediaTek. Only the last leaves the royalty intact.

Source: Qualcomm Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedChina including Hong Kong was $20,340 million of fiscal 2025 revenue — 46% — against $10,515 million from the United States and $9,542 million from South Korea.
    Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 804328) — Item 1, Business, and the revenue-concentration and geographic disclosures. Qualcomm operates through QCT (semiconductors) and QTL (licensing), with QSI making strategic investments. QTL grants licences to portions of a patent portfolio including rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products. In fiscal 2025 revenues from Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi each comprised 10% or more of consolidated revenues. Revenues by country, reported by customer or licensee headquarters: China including Hong Kong $20,340M (46%), United States $10,515M (24%), South Korea $9,542M (21%), other foreign $3,887M (9%), total $44,284M; the equivalent 2023 figures were $13,386M (37%), $10,503M (29%), $8,075M (23%) and $3,856M (11%). Approximately 52,000 full-time, part-time and temporary workers at 28 September 2025, in over 200 locations in 38 countries, with a voluntary turnover rate around 6%. Named registry and semiconductor competitors and the risk factors relating to customer vertical integration are set out in the same Item. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗
  2. ReportedXiaomi is one of the three named above the 10% threshold, and Oppo, Vivo and Honor between them ship several hundred million devices a year, mostly with Qualcomm silicon in the premium tiers.
    Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 804328) — Item 1, Business, and the revenue-concentration and geographic disclosures. Qualcomm operates through QCT (semiconductors) and QTL (licensing), with QSI making strategic investments. QTL grants licences to portions of a patent portfolio including rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products. In fiscal 2025 revenues from Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi each comprised 10% or more of consolidated revenues. Revenues by country, reported by customer or licensee headquarters: China including Hong Kong $20,340M (46%), United States $10,515M (24%), South Korea $9,542M (21%), other foreign $3,887M (9%), total $44,284M; the equivalent 2023 figures were $13,386M (37%), $10,503M (29%), $8,075M (23%) and $3,856M (11%). Approximately 52,000 full-time, part-time and temporary workers at 28 September 2025, in over 200 locations in 38 countries, with a voluntary turnover rate around 6%. Named registry and semiconductor competitors and the risk factors relating to customer vertical integration are set out in the same Item. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOnly the last of those leaves the royalty intact.
    Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis, and the reportable-segment note. QCT revenues $38,367M (2024 $33,196M, 2023 $30,382M) with EBT of $11,670M ($9,527M, $7,924M) at 30% of revenues (29%, 26%); QCT revenue streams handsets $27,793M ($24,863M, $22,570M), automotive $3,957M ($2,910M, $1,872M) and IoT $6,617M ($5,423M, $5,940M). QTL revenues $5,582M ($5,572M, $5,306M) against total costs and expenses of $1,539M ($1,545M, $1,678M), for EBT of $4,043M ($4,027M, $3,628M) — 72% of revenues in each of the three years. Reportable-segment revenues $43,949M, $38,786M and $35,716M against consolidated revenues of $44,284M, $38,962M and $35,820M. During the second quarter of fiscal 2025 Qualcomm executed final agreements for new long-term licensing arrangements. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026