✦ The OpenAI Stake & the New TermsNarrow moat

Microsoft (MSFT) — the future bets

Microsoft booked a $6.5 billion gain on OpenAI largely because it was diluted — and $24.1 billion of revenue from the same company it competes with.

The October 2025 restructuring turned a tangled partnership into the cleanest position in AI: OpenAI became a public benefit corporation, and Microsoft emerged with an equity-method interest of roughly 27% on an as-converted basis, rights to OpenAI's technology through 2032 and a commitment from OpenAI to purchase an incremental $250 billion of Azure1. In April 2026 the last cords loosened: the old revenue-share arrangements were capped, and both sides walked free to compete2.

The OpenAI position, as the accounts record it ($B)$24.1BRevenue fromOpenAI, FY2026$13.0BFunding committed$11.9BFunding drawn$6.5BGain recognised,FY2026$6.0BReceivableoutstandingForm 10-K FY2026 — about 25% on an as-converted basis, down on the recapitalisation
Microsoft booked a six-and-a-half-billion-dollar gain largely because it was diluted. That is the strangest line in the accounts and the most revealing.

A year of accounts has made the position concrete in a way the announcement never could. Microsoft has committed $13.0 billion of funding and drawn $11.9 billion of it; the interest is now about 25% on an as-converted basis, having been diluted by OpenAI's own recapitalisation and later rounds; and it books its share of OpenAI's results by hypothetical liquidation at book value rather than by ownership percentage3. In the other direction, OpenAI is a customer: $24.1 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026, with $6.0 billion outstanding at the year end4.

The strangest line is the profit. Microsoft recorded a $6.5 billion net gain on the position in fiscal 2026 against a $4.8 billion loss the year before, and the gain arose largely because it was diluted — a dilution gain on the recapitalisation, not a sale, not a distribution, not cash5. Grade the whole thing as three assets whose risks are the same risk: a venture stake whose value assumes the AI boom holds, a supply contract that assumes OpenAI can pay it, and an option on the frontier that assumes there is still a frontier to rent. Watch the funded balance against the commitment, and watch the $250 billion converting into reported Azure revenue rather than sitting in the backlog.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Holding steady by design, and now visible in the accounts. The restructuring converted entanglement into an equity-method position — about 25% as converted after dilution, down from roughly 27% — with IP rights through 2032 and a $250 billion customer commitment; April 2026 capped the revenue share and set both sides free to compete. Microsoft has drawn $11.9 billion of a $13.0 billion commitment. Stable describes a stake whose next move depends on OpenAI's own raises rather than on anything Microsoft does.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Funding drawn against the $13.0B commitment
$11.9B at 30 June 2026

What Microsoft has actually paid, as against what it has promised and what the stake is said to be worth. The ownership percentage moves with every round OpenAI raises — it fell this year and Microsoft booked a gain on the dilution — but the cash is a fact. When the last $1.1B is drawn, the question becomes whether a new commitment replaces it.

Source: Microsoft Form 10-K, FY2026 — equity investments note ↗
References
  1. ReportedOctober 2025: OpenAI became a public benefit corporation; Microsoft held roughly 27% on an as-converted basis, with IP rights through 2032 and an incremental $250 billion Azure commitment.
    Microsoft — 'The next chapter of the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership' (Oct 28, 2025): OpenAI recapitalized as a PBC; Microsoft holds ~27% on an as-converted basis (~$135B at the ~$500B valuation); IP rights through 2032; OpenAI committed to an incremental $250B of Azure — Announced Oct 28, 2025 · publ. Oct 28, 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedApril 2026: the legacy revenue-share arrangements were capped and the remaining exclusivity unwound.
    CNBC — OpenAI and Microsoft cap the legacy revenue-share arrangements; remaining exclusivity unwound (Apr 2026) — Apr 2026 · publ. Apr 27, 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedFunding commitments of $13.0 billion of which $11.9 billion funded; an approximate 25% as-converted interest, accounted for by hypothetical liquidation at book value.
    Microsoft Form 10-K, FY2026 — OpenAI disclosures: an equity-method investment representing an approximate 25% interest on an as-converted basis, accounted for by hypothetical liquidation at book value; revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI of $24.1 billion in fiscal 2026 and accounts receivable of $6.0 billion at 30 June 2026; total funding commitments of $13.0 billion of which $11.9 billion funded; other income included $6.5 billion of net gains in fiscal 2026 and $4.8 billion of net losses in fiscal 2025, the gains relating primarily to the dilution gain from the OpenAI Recapitalization — FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026) · publ. July 29, 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRevenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI of $24.1 billion in fiscal 2026, with $6.0 billion of receivables at the year end.
    Microsoft Form 10-K, FY2026 — OpenAI disclosures: an equity-method investment representing an approximate 25% interest on an as-converted basis, accounted for by hypothetical liquidation at book value; revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI of $24.1 billion in fiscal 2026 and accounts receivable of $6.0 billion at 30 June 2026; total funding commitments of $13.0 billion of which $11.9 billion funded; other income included $6.5 billion of net gains in fiscal 2026 and $4.8 billion of net losses in fiscal 2025, the gains relating primarily to the dilution gain from the OpenAI Recapitalization — FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026) · publ. July 29, 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedA $6.5 billion net gain in fiscal 2026 against a $4.8 billion net loss in fiscal 2025, relating primarily to the dilution gain from the OpenAI Recapitalization.
    Microsoft Form 10-K, FY2026 — OpenAI disclosures: an equity-method investment representing an approximate 25% interest on an as-converted basis, accounted for by hypothetical liquidation at book value; revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI of $24.1 billion in fiscal 2026 and accounts receivable of $6.0 billion at 30 June 2026; total funding commitments of $13.0 billion of which $11.9 billion funded; other income included $6.5 billion of net gains in fiscal 2026 and $4.8 billion of net losses in fiscal 2025, the gains relating primarily to the dilution gain from the OpenAI Recapitalization — FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026) · publ. July 29, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 22, 2026