⚠ The Margin Has Fallen Every Year Since 2020High threat

Dino Polska (DNP) — threat to the moat

Revenue is eight times what it was in 2017 and the net margin has gone from 6,4% to 4,4%.

The single most uncomfortable series in Dino's accounts is not the like-for-like number. It is the net margin, and it has moved in one direction for five years.

Net margin (%)4,79%20175,27%20185,37%20196,36%20206,03%20215,72%20225,48%20235,14%20244,63%20254,39%2026Gross margin held at 23,5%. Everything below it did not.
Revenue is eight times what it was in 2017 and the net margin has given back everything it gained.

From the filed consolidated statements: 4,79% in 2017, 5,27% in 2018, 5,37% in 2019, 6,36% in 2020, 6,03% in 2021, 5,72% in 2022, 5,48% in 2023, 5,14% in 2024 and 4,63% in 2025123. On a trailing basis it is now about 4,4%. The peak was 2020 and every year since has been lower.

Return on invested capital tells the same story with the balance sheet included: 26,3% in 2022, 25,7% in 2023, 21,8% in 2024 and 19,7% in 2025 against an assumed 9% cost of capital4. The spread is still large. It has narrowed by a quarter in three years.

The mechanism is visible in the cost lines. Gross margin has held remarkably well at 23,5%5 — the buying is fine. What has not held is everything below it. The cost-by-nature note sets out which lines moved and by how much: employee benefits 4 333,6 million złoty, up 21,2% and 758 million in absolute terms; depreciation and amortisation 505,0 million, up 23,4%; external services 1 086,0 million, up 18,5%; taxes and fees 621,6 million, up 15,1%; other costs 160,0 million, up 25,0%6. Only the consumption of materials and energy behaved, at 2 641,4 million and up 5,4%7. Administration grew fastest of all, 29,7% to 302,9 million8.

Set that against revenue growth of 14,9% and the picture is unambiguous: four of the six cost lines grew faster than sales, and the biggest of them grew half again as fast. Labour is the centre of it — headcount up 12% to 55,9 thousand9 — and Polish wage inflation is something Dino, facing customers it describes as markedly more price-sensitive, has largely absorbed rather than passed on.

The company is also carrying an asset base growing faster than its sales: property, plant and equipment rose 22,8% in 202510 while revenue rose 14,9%.

None of this is a crisis. A 19,7% return on capital is a good business by any standard, and a grocer holding gross margin through a deflationary, price-sensitive year has done something right.

The falsifier is the direction, not the level. One year of stable net margin — even at 4,4% — would say the compression was the consumer cycle and the build phase. A sixth consecutive year of decline would mean the format's economics are permanently different from the ones that produced the growth record, and a 22,5 times multiple is pricing the wrong business.

The number that tests this threat
Moat Explorer calc
Net margin
4,63% in 2025, from 6,36% in 2020 — five consecutive falls

Gross margin has held at 23,5%, so the buying is fine; everything below it is not. Selling costs grew 19,2% against revenue growth of 14,9% on a headcount up 12%, and roughly 700m złoty is committed to 2026 pay rises. One year of stable net margin would say the compression was cyclical. A sixth fall would mean the format's economics are permanently different from the ones that produced the growth record.

How it's calculated: Net profit over sales revenue, computed from the filed consolidated statements for each year from 2017 to 2025 and from the trailing twelve months to June 2026.
Source: Dino Polska Group consolidated financial statements for 2025 ↗
References
  1. Moat Explorer calcFrom the filed consolidated statements: 4,79% in 2017, 5,27% in 2018, 5,37% in 2019, 6,36% in 2020, 6,03% in 2021, 5,72% in 2022, 5,48% in 2023, 5,14% in 2024 and 4,63% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures reported in Dino's own filings: gross margin (7 911 077 over 33 634 155), net margin for each year from 2017 to 2025, revenue per store (33 634 155 thousand złoty over roughly 3 000 stores), own production as a share of revenue (3 945 315 over 33 634 155), the share of plant output sold internally (3 945 315 less 264 656), selling costs as a share of revenue (5 576 262 over 33 634 155), and stores per distribution centre — FY2017-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcFrom the filed consolidated statements: 4,79% in 2017, 5,27% in 2018, 5,37% in 2019, 6,36% in 2020, 6,03% in 2021, 5,72% in 2022, 5,48% in 2023, 5,14% in 2024 and 4,63% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures reported in Dino's own filings: gross margin (7 911 077 over 33 634 155), net margin for each year from 2017 to 2025, revenue per store (33 634 155 thousand złoty over roughly 3 000 stores), own production as a share of revenue (3 945 315 over 33 634 155), the share of plant output sold internally (3 945 315 less 264 656), selling costs as a share of revenue (5 576 262 over 33 634 155), and stores per distribution centre — FY2017-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcFrom the filed consolidated statements: 4,79% in 2017, 5,27% in 2018, 5,37% in 2019, 6,36% in 2020, 6,03% in 2021, 5,72% in 2022, 5,48% in 2023, 5,14% in 2024 and 4,63% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures reported in Dino's own filings: gross margin (7 911 077 over 33 634 155), net margin for each year from 2017 to 2025, revenue per store (33 634 155 thousand złoty over roughly 3 000 stores), own production as a share of revenue (3 945 315 over 33 634 155), the share of plant output sold internally (3 945 315 less 264 656), selling costs as a share of revenue (5 576 262 over 33 634 155), and stores per distribution centre — FY2017-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcReturn on invested capital tells the same story with the balance sheet included: 26,3% in 2022, 25,7% in 2023, 21,8% in 2024 and 19,7% in 2025 against an assumed 9% cost of capital.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dino's consolidated financial statements: NOPAT (operating profit less 19% Polish corporate income tax) divided by average invested capital (total assets less total current liabilities), giving 22,7% in 2020 rising to 26,3% in 2022 and falling to 19,7% in 2025 — FY2020-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcGross margin has held remarkably well at 23,5% — the buying is fine.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures reported in Dino's own filings: gross margin (7 911 077 over 33 634 155), net margin for each year from 2017 to 2025, revenue per store (33 634 155 thousand złoty over roughly 3 000 stores), own production as a share of revenue (3 945 315 over 33 634 155), the share of plant output sold internally (3 945 315 less 264 656), selling costs as a share of revenue (5 576 262 over 33 634 155), and stores per distribution centre — FY2017-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe cost-by-nature note sets out which lines moved and by how much: employee benefits 4 333,6 million złoty, up 21,2% and 758 million in absolute terms; depreciation and amortisation 505,0 million, up 23,4%; external services 1 086,0...
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOnly the consumption of materials and energy behaved, at 2 641,4 million and up 5,4%.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAdministration grew fastest of all, 29,7% to 302,9 million.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedLabour is the centre of it — headcount up 12% to 55,9 thousand — and Polish wage inflation is something Dino, facing customers it describes as markedly more price-sensitive, has largely absorbed rather than passed on.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - letter from the Management Board and financial highlights (the ten-year series of store counts, sales area rising from 238 to 1 200 thousand square metres, headcount, and the summary income statement and balance sheet) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe company is also carrying an asset base growing faster than its sales: property, plant and equipment rose 22,8% in 2025 while revenue rose 14,9%.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026