A Hundred and Nine Billion, DisclosedNarrow moat

Texas Instruments (TXN) — moat facet

Publishing a ten-year capital-allocation total makes the argument about proportion rather than principle.

A hundred and nine billion dollars over ten years, and the disclosure of how it was split is the most useful page in the annual report.

Capital allocated, 2016-2025 ($bn)$109bnTotal allocated~$24bnCapital expenditure$3.94bn2025 alone: R&Dand SG&A$6.48bn2025 alone: returnedPublishing the ten-year total makes the argument about proportion rather than principle.
Unusually transparent, and it invites exactly the question being asked.

TI reports that from 2016 to 2025 it allocated $109 billion, with the largest share to organic growth — research and development, sales and marketing, capital expenditure and working capital for inventory — of which about $24 billion went into capital expenditure.1 The remainder went to dividends and share repurchases.

Publishing a ten-year capital-allocation total is rare, and it does something useful: it makes the current argument a matter of proportion rather than of principle. Nobody disputes that TI should build fabs. The dispute is whether $24 billion over six years was the right amount, at the right time, against a cycle that turned down while the concrete was setting.2

The 2025 split alone: $3.94 billion into research and selling costs, $4.55 billion into capital expenditure, $6.48 billion returned to shareholders — $14.97 billion deployed against $17.68 billion of revenue.3

The company's own framing is that capital expenditure will be a greater component of free-cash-flow-per-share growth going forward, as it is near completion of the six-year elevated cycle.

Watch capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue. It ran near 5% for the decade before the programme and 26% in 2025.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

The ten-year allocation total is disclosed and the split is what it is. What changes from here is the forward mix, as capital expenditure falls and the share returned rises.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Share repurchases, first half
$185M in H1 2026, against $955M

Buybacks stopped while the Silicon Labs purchase is financed; their return would show where the next dollar of free cash flow goes.

Source: Texas Instruments Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
The Largest Line Has Not Earned Its Keep Yet
Twenty-four billion dollars has so far produced a halving of the return on capital. The verdict is due around 2028.
References
  1. ReportedTI reports that from 2016 to 2025 it allocated $109 billion, with the largest share to organic growth — research and development, sales and marketing, capital expenditure and working capital for inventory — of which about $24 billion went into capital expenditure.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Management's Discussion and Analysis, cash flow statement and the free-cash-flow reconciliation. Cash flow from operations $7,153M (2024 $6,318M), 40.5% of revenue; capital expenditures $4,550M (2024 $4,820M); proceeds from CHIPS Act incentives $335M; free cash flow $2,938M (2024 $1,498M), 16.6% of revenue. In 2025 TI invested $3.94bn in R&D and SG&A, invested $4.55bn in capital expenditures and returned $6.48bn to shareholders. Dividends paid were $4,999M against $4,795M in 2024 and $4,557M in 2023, reflecting an increased dividend rate; $1,477M was used to repurchase 8.5 million shares against $929M for 4.7 million shares in 2024. Net proceeds of $1,199M were received from the issuance of fixed-rate long-term debt and $750M of maturing debt retired. Over the ten-year period from 2016 to 2025 TI allocated $109 billion, of which about $24 billion went to capital expenditures, and states it is near completion of its six-year elevated capital expenditure cycle. The dividend was raised 4% to $1.42 per share per quarter, marking 22 consecutive years of increases, since extended to 23. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted 4 July 2025, provided for expensing of US research and eligible capital expenditure and increased the CHIPS Act investment tax credit; TI expects the effective tax rate and tax-related cash payments to be lower than under prior law from 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe dispute is whether $24 billion over six years was the right amount, at the right time, against a cycle that turned down while the concrete was setting.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Management's Discussion and Analysis, cash flow statement and the free-cash-flow reconciliation. Cash flow from operations $7,153M (2024 $6,318M), 40.5% of revenue; capital expenditures $4,550M (2024 $4,820M); proceeds from CHIPS Act incentives $335M; free cash flow $2,938M (2024 $1,498M), 16.6% of revenue. In 2025 TI invested $3.94bn in R&D and SG&A, invested $4.55bn in capital expenditures and returned $6.48bn to shareholders. Dividends paid were $4,999M against $4,795M in 2024 and $4,557M in 2023, reflecting an increased dividend rate; $1,477M was used to repurchase 8.5 million shares against $929M for 4.7 million shares in 2024. Net proceeds of $1,199M were received from the issuance of fixed-rate long-term debt and $750M of maturing debt retired. Over the ten-year period from 2016 to 2025 TI allocated $109 billion, of which about $24 billion went to capital expenditures, and states it is near completion of its six-year elevated capital expenditure cycle. The dividend was raised 4% to $1.42 per share per quarter, marking 22 consecutive years of increases, since extended to 23. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted 4 July 2025, provided for expensing of US research and eligible capital expenditure and increased the CHIPS Act investment tax credit; TI expects the effective tax rate and tax-related cash payments to be lower than under prior law from 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe 2025 split alone: $3.94 billion into research and selling costs, $4.55 billion into capital expenditure, $6.48 billion returned to shareholders — $14.97 billion deployed against $17.68 billion of revenue.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated statements of income and segment results. Revenue $17,682M, up $2.04bn or 13.0%; gross profit $10,081M; operating profit $6,023M; other income net $230M; interest and debt expense $543M; income before income taxes $5,710M; provision for income taxes $709M at an effective rate of 12.4% (12.0% in 2024); net income $5,001M against $4,799M in 2024 and $6,510M in 2023. Basic EPS $5.47 and diluted EPS $5.45, against $5.20 and $7.07 in the two prior years, on 913 million diluted shares. By segment, Analog revenue $14,006M (2024 $12,161M, +15%) with operating profit $5,412M (2024 $4,608M, +17%) at 38.6% of revenue (37.9%); Embedded Processing $2,700M; Other the remainder. Revenue peaked at $20,028M in 2022 with operating profit of $10,140M, and troughed at $15,641M in 2024 with operating profit of $5,465M. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026