⚠ China Is Investigating TI for DumpingHigh threat

Texas Instruments (TXN) — threat to the moat

A company shipping half its output into the jurisdiction investigating it for dumping, with a ruling due within the year.

1. ReportedIt is normally scheduled to conclude by 13 September 2026, with a possible six-month extension, and the Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau issued questionnaires requiring responses within 37 days.
   Coverage of China's anti-dumping investigation into American-made analog chips, September 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce opened the probe on 13 September 2025 into certain American-made analog integrated circuits, targeting commodity interface ICs and gate driver ICs and naming products sold by Texas Instruments and Analog Devices among others. The anti-dumping investigation period covers 1 January to 31 December 2024 and the injury investigation period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024; the investigation is normally scheduled to be completed by 13 September 2026, extendable by a further six months in special circumstances. China's Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau issued questionnaires seeking data on sales activities in China, including comparisons of costs and profits in the home country and in China, with responses required within 37 days. A duty regime could prompt Chinese manufacturers to pay more for US-origin analog chips, switch to domestic alternatives or pivot to non-US vendors. — 2025-2026 · publ. 2025-09-15 · source ↗
2. ReportedRevenue from end customers headquartered in China was about 20% of revenue in 2025; revenue from products shipped into China was about 50%.
   Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 97476) — Item 1, Business. TI's two reportable segments are Analog and Embedded Processing, with remaining activities in Other; operations began in 1930 and it has design, manufacturing or sales operations in more than 30 countries. The product portfolio includes more than 80,000 products. TI states four sustainable competitive advantages: a strong foundation of manufacturing and technology, a broad portfolio of analog and embedded processing products, the reach of its market channels, and the diversity and longevity of its products, markets and customer positions, which in combination it describes as difficult to replicate. An unpackaged chip built on a 300mm wafer costs about 40% less than one built on a 200mm wafer; TI continued qualifying and ramping production at its newest 300mm fabs in Richardson and Sherman, Texas, and Lehi, Utah, supporting external foundry transfers and internal transfers from its legacy 150mm facilities, and expects to maintain sufficient internal capacity to meet the majority of its production needs, offering customers geopolitically dependable capacity. TI sells to over 100,000 customers, with about half of revenue derived from customers outside its largest 50; more than 80% of revenue was direct in 2025, including TI.com. End markets as a percentage of 2025 revenue: industrial 33%, automotive 33%, personal electronics 21%, data centre 9%, communications equipment 3%, and calculators about 1%. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the United States; revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of revenue in 2025, while revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50%. The analog and embedded processing markets remain highly fragmented, with significant global competition from dozens of large and small companies including emerging companies, particularly in Asia. The company's stated objective is the growth of free cash flow per share over the long term. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
3. ReportedTI's own filing describes the analog market as highly fragmented, with dozens of competitors including emerging companies particularly in Asia.
   Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 97476) — Item 1, Business. TI's two reportable segments are Analog and Embedded Processing, with remaining activities in Other; operations began in 1930 and it has design, manufacturing or sales operations in more than 30 countries. The product portfolio includes more than 80,000 products. TI states four sustainable competitive advantages: a strong foundation of manufacturing and technology, a broad portfolio of analog and embedded processing products, the reach of its market channels, and the diversity and longevity of its products, markets and customer positions, which in combination it describes as difficult to replicate. An unpackaged chip built on a 300mm wafer costs about 40% less than one built on a 200mm wafer; TI continued qualifying and ramping production at its newest 300mm fabs in Richardson and Sherman, Texas, and Lehi, Utah, supporting external foundry transfers and internal transfers from its legacy 150mm facilities, and expects to maintain sufficient internal capacity to meet the majority of its production needs, offering customers geopolitically dependable capacity. TI sells to over 100,000 customers, with about half of revenue derived from customers outside its largest 50; more than 80% of revenue was direct in 2025, including TI.com. End markets as a percentage of 2025 revenue: industrial 33%, automotive 33%, personal electronics 21%, data centre 9%, communications equipment 3%, and calculators about 1%. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the United States; revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of revenue in 2025, while revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50%. The analog and embedded processing markets remain highly fragmented, with significant global competition from dozens of large and small companies including emerging companies, particularly in Asia. The company's stated objective is the growth of free cash flow per share over the long term. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗

• Texas Instruments Form 10-K, FY2025 (SEC EDGAR)
• China launches an anti-dumping probe into US analog chips (September 2025)