⚠ Losing a Socket Is Losing a GenerationHigh threat

The specific danger in a re-competed business became concrete when the next generations of Amazon's Trainium were reported to have gone to Alchip rather than to Marvell¹. Amazon's accelerator program had been one of Marvell's flagship engagements and a large part of the custom-silicon story investors were paying for.

This is what makes custom silicon structurally different from the businesses rated wide elsewhere in this app. There is no renewal, no switching cost, no contractual annuity — a hyperscaler that has learned how a program works can hand the next iteration to a cheaper design house, and Asian competitors price aggressively for exactly this reason. One socket lost removes a revenue line that took years to build.

The mitigation is portfolio: more programs across more customers means any single loss hurts less, which is precisely why the Google agreement matters so much. Watch for disclosure of program-level revenue concentration, and watch the fiscal 2028 guidance, which depends heavily on Microsoft's Maia ramp. A company whose forecast rests on one customer's next chip has not yet diversified away from this risk.