⚠ The Structure Only Works If Aircraft Keep FlyingHigh threat

GE Aerospace (GE) — threat to the moat

The aftermarket is a claim on flight hours, and flight hours are cyclical, political and occasionally grounded.

Everything on this page depends on aircraft being used. An engine on a parked aircraft generates nothing: no shop visits, no spare parts, no long-term service agreement billing tied to hours flown.

What the aftermarket actually tracks3%Global departuresgrowth 202524%Internal shop visitrevenue 202530%Internal shop visitrevenue H1 2026~70%Aftermarketshare of revenueShop visit growth far above departures growth is a catch-up cycle, not a run rate.
When those two series converge, this becomes a very wide moat around a three-per-cent-a-year market.

GE Aerospace is careful about this in its own definition, describing an installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines including parked aircraft in addition to fleet in service1. The distinction is the whole risk. In 2025 global departures grew three per cent2, which is the number underneath the aftermarket.

The things that stop aircraft flying arrive without notice and are outside the company's control. A pandemic can halt air travel within weeks. A regional conflict reduces utilisation on specific routes: GE Aerospace is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East and has said the impacts may include lower volume related to shop visits, spare parts and spare engines, lower profitability of long-term contracts, and customer credit implications3. A grounding of an airframe removes an entire engine type from service at once.

The recession case is milder than intuition suggests. Airlines defer new aircraft purchases in a downturn, which hurts equipment — the part sold at a loss — and extend the life of existing fleets, which supports the aftermarket. The aftermarket is the resilient half of the business, not the fragile one.

The fragile scenarios are the ones that remove flight hours rather than aircraft orders, and they are also the ones nobody forecasts.

The company cites the right variable itself: global departures. Three per cent growth in 20254 supports a twenty-four per cent increase in internal shop visit revenue5, because a decade of deferred maintenance is being worked through. When that catch-up finishes, shop visit growth converges on departure growth, and the moat becomes a claim on a three-per-cent-a-year variable.

References
  1. ReportedGE Aerospace is careful about this in its own definition, describing an installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines including parked aircraft in addition to fleet in service.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 general and Item 2 Properties — the installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines and the statement that it supports an aftermarket representing approximately 70% of revenue, the FLIGHT DECK operating model, customers in approximately 120 countries, the facility count, human capital and employee numbers, the intellectual property discussion, the research and development table splitting company-funded from customer- and partner-funded spending, and the engine testing milestones. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn 2025 global departures grew three per cent, which is the number underneath the aftermarket.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedA regional conflict reduces utilisation on specific routes: GE Aerospace is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East and has said the impacts may include lower volume related to shop visits, spare parts and spare engines, lower profitability of long-term contracts, and customer credit implications.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Management's Discussion and Analysis — consolidated revenue, profit and earnings per share, the segment results for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the remaining performance obligation and its equipment and services split, the supply chain, tariff and Middle East discussions, and the planned $1 billion US manufacturing investment and 5,000 US hires. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThree per cent growth in 2025 supports a twenty-four per cent increase in internal shop visit revenue, because a decade of deferred maintenance is being worked through.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThree per cent growth in 2025 supports a twenty-four per cent increase in internal shop visit revenue, because a decade of deferred maintenance is being worked through.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026