⚠ The Fleet Ages Out, and Nobody Publishes the RetirementsModerate threat

GE Aerospace (GE) — threat to the moat

GE Aerospace publishes what it delivers and never what leaves service, and the mature engines are the profitable ones.

An installed base is a stock, and a company that reports only the inflow is reporting half of it.

Internal shop visit revenue growth, per cent27%202319%202424%202530%H1 2026The net of mature engines retiring and LEAP engines arriving — the only public window.
GE Aerospace publishes what it delivers and never what leaves service, and the mature engines are the profitable ones.

GE Aerospace discloses commercial engine deliveries each year — 2,386 in 2025, 1,911 in 2024, 2,075 in 20231 — and the approximate total of the base, about 50,000 commercial engines including parked aircraft in addition to fleet in service2. It does not disclose retirements, removals from the active fleet, or the split between flying and parked.

That gap matters because the mature engines are the profitable ones. A CF6 or a GE90 has been in service long enough that its shop visits are frequent, its parts are well understood and its long-term service agreements are priced on actual rather than estimated experience. When those aircraft retire, the richest part of the aftermarket retires with them, and the replacement — a LEAP or a GEnx early in life, under an agreement priced on forecasts — earns less for several years.

The transition is happening now. The CFM56 is described as mature and is expected to be overtaken by the LEAP as the industry's largest fleet3. The CFM56's aftermarket is at or near its peak; the LEAP's has barely begun.

What makes this a threat rather than an accounting quibble is that the two curves do not have to meet neatly. A wave of retirements driven by fuel prices, emissions rules or a fleet-renewal cycle could pull mature shop visits out of the numbers faster than LEAP visits arrive.

Internal shop visit revenue growth is published and is the only window: 27% in 2023, 19% in 2024, 24% in 20254 and 30% in the first half of 20265. That series is the net of both curves, and it is the only public window onto a stock the company otherwise describes with one round number.

References
  1. ReportedGE Aerospace discloses commercial engine deliveries each year — 2,386 in 2025, 1,911 in 2024, 2,075 in 2023 — and the approximate total of the base, about 50,000 commercial engines including parked aircraft in addition to fleet in service.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGE Aerospace discloses commercial engine deliveries each year — 2,386 in 2025, 1,911 in 2024, 2,075 in 2023 — and the approximate total of the base, about 50,000 commercial engines including parked aircraft in addition to fleet in service.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 general and Item 2 Properties — the installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines and the statement that it supports an aftermarket representing approximately 70% of revenue, the FLIGHT DECK operating model, customers in approximately 120 countries, the facility count, human capital and employee numbers, the intellectual property discussion, the research and development table splitting company-funded from customer- and partner-funded spending, and the engine testing milestones. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe CFM56 is described as mature and is expected to be overtaken by the LEAP as the industry's largest fleet.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 Business — segment descriptions for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, the CFM International 50-50 non-consolidated joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines, the commercial engine platforms (LEAP, CFM56, GEnx, GE9X, CF6, GE90), the defence platforms (F110, F404, F414, T408, T700, T901, LM2500), the Propulsion & Additive Technologies brands, the CFM RISE programme, the customer description including airframers and sole-source positions, and the segment revenue and services shares. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedInternal shop visit revenue growth is published and is the only window: 27% in 2023, 19% in 2024, 24% in 2025 and 30% in the first half of 2026.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedInternal shop visit revenue growth is published and is the only window: 27% in 2023, 19% in 2024, 24% in 2025 and 30% in the first half of 2026.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Management's Discussion and Analysis — consolidated revenue, profit and earnings per share, the segment results for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the remaining performance obligation and its equipment and services split, the supply chain, tariff and Middle East discussions, and the planned $1 billion US manufacturing investment and 5,000 US hires. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026